This week, my Fantasy Football League will officially begin. I’m not referencing the start of the NFL season, but my actual league gets started on Wednesday night with our fantasy draft at 10:00pm EST.

I know, many of you had your fantasy football drafts way back in August, and even if you did have it late, you took advantage of the long Labor Day Weekend to get it done.

I’m just one of those who loves to wait as long as humanly possible to have fantasy football draft. Afterall, so much happens in the preseason and we depend on those first round picks so much that to have a draft anytime before the 3rd preseason game is just ridiculous.

But I won’t lie, I did have a little bit of trouble getting everyone in line with the draft this year. You see, my fantasy football league goes back. Way back. All the way to 2004 when me and dawg from my college football team at Columbia had our own 2-man fantasy football draft. The next year, our senior year, we would go on to include everyone on the team, and we have continued to tradition, although in dwindling numbers, up until now, with a Fantasy Football League we have now labeled “Gold Dinner,” in reference to our alma mater’s annual celebration of the graduating of our college football seniors.

Of course, my roots in fantasy football go back way further than that. Outside of the ice cream man, fantasy football was one of the first things I ever saved money for. It was around 1994 where I began to notice ads in the newspaper and magazines for fantasy football players. You remember those. The leagues where you mailed in money and picked a team in salary cap league format and then you competed against the rest of the nation to win weekly and seasonal prices. Needless to say, I was only 11 in my first league, and so I sucked at it. Plus, if I recall correctly, the more money you had, the more points you could put toward buying players, so they weren’t exactly competition friendly to the annual salary of a 7th grader.

Still before the age of internet fantasy football kicked in, I turned toward fantasy football league’s I could win…the kind I started my own. So in 1996 at the age of 12, I started my own league where I listed off a series of 20 possibilities in fantasy football. Those possibilities would go something like, “Marshall Faulk will score 1 touchdown,” or “the Dallas Cowboys will beat the San Francisco 49ers.” Each possibility would have a certain number of points rewarded if correct and a certain number of points deducted if wrong, all based on the likelihood of that possibility. For example, you could gain more points and risk more points being deducted for predicting that Brad Johnson would throw 4 touchdown passes, but the risk/reward was much lower if you predicted Kurt Warner would throw 1 touchdown pass. The possible points rewarded and possible points lost equaled the same total every week.

My participants would sign their initials next to the things they thought would happen, and each Sunday night I would calculate the points won and loss by each person and add their overall points gained to their yearly total using an Excel spreadsheet. I did this all the way through my freshman year in high school. It was a marvelous success, and in the 3 years I did it, I won 2 of them—without cheating. I did, however, play to some of the biases and favoritism of my opponents/friends with the possibilities I would propose, but I was probably even at bigger advantage because I loved to see my favorite players reach lofty goals and produce a severe amount of points.

By my sophomore year in 1999, the internet had caught up to fantasy football and Sandbox.com came up with one of the first free fantasy football leagues. My friends and I joined that, and I’ve been playing fantasy football leagues with them online every year since.

Fast-forward to the present, and the impending draft of my Gold Dinner Fantasy Football League. There are 9 football alumni on the team, and 1 former member, who make up this year’s 10 teams. It’s divided into 2 divisions, one for the offense, and one for the defense, which really has no significance at the end of the day. This year’s version of the Gold Dinner league is titled Gold Dinner II, despite the fact that I’ll be going to my 3rd post graduation Gold Dinner (my first post-grad fantasy league was called Lions forever…doesn’t have the same ring to it).

Last year, in Gold Dinner I, the message boards were a frienzy. People talked trash to the high-heavens. Peoples characters were questioned, people abandoned their teams, and others refused to pay the league fee. I had a rough start to the season, starting 0-3, despite having scored the 4th most points in the league after 3 weeks. I am the commissioner of the league, so people began to make fun of me “The Sports Watcher,” for not living up to my moniker. But I knew my team was good and that my record did not reflect my team’s ability. So I made a few trades, and needless to say, I went on to win every single game for the rest of the season in route to the first Gold Dinner championship ever.

Did I brag in the message boards?

Nope!

All I wrote in the message boards after Week 3, was “1,” “2,” “3,” “4,” “5,” and all the way up to “12,” after my championship victory.

And so with Week 1 of the NFL and fantasy football season upon us, my counting begins again this week. I’ll be using my own quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end rankings to determine just which players I’ll be drafting in my Gold Dinner II draft this Wednesday night. I’ll be live-blogging the draft, so come join me and a couple of my friends on the “Internets,” as we talk up the biggest night of the fantasy football season on the eve of the start of yet another well-anticipated year in the NFL. The draft starts at 10:00pm EST, so the live-blog will start a little bit before that. Come join the fun, and if you’re in a draft of your own, you can read the live commentary at another time at FantasyFootball.TheSportsWatchers.com.

Looking to draft a few steals in your fantasy football draft? Well, I have a few for you.

Of course, the idea of stealing someone in a fantasy football draft, or any draft, is debatable. Afterall, who is to say the player you drafted wasn’t rightfully drafted in his place. The people who didn’t draft him before you surely thought the players they were drafting were better than him, so is it really possible that they are all wrong?

The truth is, a steal in a fantasy football draft isn’t a steal until the season plays out. Just like a bust can’t be a bust before he ever steps on the football field.

That said, I have a few “potential steals” for you in this draft. These players might possibly fall in the draft because other players are wrongfully being drafted ahead of them. I’ve got some controversial ones, but needless to say, I’ll back up everyone with a reason as to why I think they might fall, and why they will succeed despite their reasons for falling. [You can also check out Part I for more players]

Matt Hasselbeck, Quarterback, Seattle Seahawks – Don’t ask me how a player I rank in the top 10 at his position is falling in drafts, but that he is. I’ve done like 20 mock-drafts and I end up drafting Hasselbeck every time as my #1 quarterback because he is always there as a safety net. He seems to get picked in the late 7th or early 8th rounds, so targeting him in the 7th round should serve you well. I don’t know who people are drafting before Hasselbeck, but there can’t be that many players more valuable than a guy who is sure to have another dominate year passing the ball. I guess people are putting a lot of stock in the fact that Mike Holmgren is in his last year and that perhaps the Seahawks will be on the decline this season. But I don’t see that. This team just re-energized itself with the addition of two new running backs and they still have one of the better defenses in the NFL. So I like the Seahawks to do well this season, and I think that Hasselbeck will continue his stellar play at the quarterback position.

Roy Williams, Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions – People! Stop buying the hype! I love Calvin Johnson, and when it is all said and done, I think Johnson could go down as one of the greatest wide receivers ever. But that hasn’t happened yet, and I’m not going to sit here and predict that he’ll be dominate in 2008 when I know these two things: One, the Lions are moving away from the pass this season, and two, Roy Williams is the number one receiver on this Lions team! I have no idea how Calvin keeps going ahead of Williams in mock drafts, but maybe people are just high or something. Roy Williams is a dominate receiver, and a top 10 producer in this league, he deserves more respect from fantasy football players. But that’s okay, their disrespect of him means you can reap the rewards. While Roy is tending to go in the 6th round, I think he is worth the 5th round pick, and he may even be a steal there if you’ve got your running back situation already taken care of. My main point here is that he deserves to go before Calvin and he is not. So don’t draft him before Calvin, and once Calvin is gone, Roy is pretty much a steal from then on.

Joey Galloway, Wide Receiver, Tampa Bay – I know Galloway is old, but he isn’t that old yet. He’s only 36, and while that age would mean the end of the road for most speed-demon wideouts, Galloway has found the fountain of youth. Galloway managed to be a top 15 receiver last year, and I see no reason for him to fall off in 2008. People have said that he has looked great in training camp and practice, and that he doesn’t appear to have aged one bit from last year. I’ll take their word for it, because Galloway is noted for training extensively during the off-season to maintain his speed and agility. But most people don’t know that, which is why Galloway is falling into the 10th round of drafts, when he is probably worthy of going in the 8th round. So pick up Galloway in the 9th or the 10th round, and you’ll have yourself yet another fantasy football draft steal, provided by TheSportsWatchers.com.

[You can also check out Part I for more players]

If you play fantasy football, then you know that everyone and their momma is trying to tell you who to draft, when to draft him, and how you could have mad that last draft pick better.

If you play fantasy football, you also know not to damn thing anyone tells you when it comes to setting up your fantasy football team—except for me that is (and your momma to, but only if she’s not in your league).

Here, I’m not going to tell you who to draft. No I’ve done that already, and I’ll have plenty of opportunities leading up to the first week of the season to give you my pre-season fantasy football draft analysis again, and of course you’ll be reading and hearing my fantasy football advice all season long here at TheSportsWatchers.com.

So what am I going to tell you if I don’t tell you whether to pick Tom Brady or LaDainian Tomlinson with the first pick, the ranking of the running backs, the projections for the quarterbacks and the consistency of the wide receivers?

I’m going to tell you the exact opposite. I’m going to tell you who not to draft.

This has been my ultimate key to fantasy football success. You have to know who to stay away from. Sometimes the decisions you make are hard, because often the players that you need to eliminate from your selection pool are the same players that are coming off of more than stellar seasons in the year prior. But if you took a guy like running back Larry Johnson in 2007, who dominated the NFL in 2006, you’ll see what I’m talking about.

If LaDainian Tomlinson was the king of fantasy football in 2006, than Larry Johnson was heir to the throne. He had a career year and ran behind what was probably the worst offensive line he had ever played for. And while LJ racked up his 1,789 yards in 2006, he also accumulated 416 carries, which essentially wore him out to the point where he was destined to fail in 2007. Knowing that, I removed Larry Johnson from all of my fantasy draft boards last year, and I effectively avoided his 8-game and 559-yard disappointment of a season.

You too can benefit from removing certain players from your draft board, because there are a few players out there that are projected to have unfavorable fantasy football seasons, and I’ve got a list of them. Before I give that to you, let me warn you, there will appear to be some contradictions between my rankings and involving these players on this “Don’t Draft List.” However, the rankings assume that the players will live up to their talents, while this list assumes that the worst of the players. So use this list as a guide to avoid drafting certain players when there are other equal or comparable fantasy football players to draft from.

With that said, here is the “Don’t Draft List!”

Carson Palmer, Quarterback, Cincinnati Bengals – I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Bengals offense so far. Their offense was the one good thing they had going for them last year and now it looks almost putrid. Here they are, looking to get receivers, trade grade-A running backs, and risking the seasons with wideout who has a bum shoulder. And of course, Carson is the one who will suffer from all of this. Not to mention, I don’t think the Bengals adequately addressed their offensive line issues during the off-season. Carson may be a highly-talented quarterback, but this year, there is a very likely chance that he won’t be his usual self.

Marshawn Lynch, Running Back, Buffalo Bills – I don’t care how many top 10 lists he is on this pre-season, because most importantly, he didn’t make mine! Besides, we all have seen this movie before. Rookie running back enters the league and explodes for big season, then said rookie running back follows it up with a dud for sophomore campaign and fantasy football players all over the country are devastated by his poor production. Now clearly, that doesn’t happen all the time, and I don’t expect it to happen to Adrian Peterson. But the fact of the matter is that the overwhelming majority of rookie running backs who rush for 1,000 yards don’t rush for a 1,000 the following year. I can’t find the percentage, but trust me on this, Lynch is likely to behold himself to that trend.

Calvin Johnson, Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions – Don’t buy the hype quite yet. I know, I know, you’ll be kicking yourself if you pass up on Calvin Johnson and he has a terrific season. But he is going to go entirely too high in the draft, and the likelihood of you having a shot at him the rounds where he should be drafted are unlikely. Heck, even fools on ESPN are ranking him in the top 10 despite him showing no evidence of that last year. Look, I love what Calvin Johnson can do, but he hasn’t done it yet. Not to mention, I’m almost 100% sure that at the end of the day, a healthy Roy Williams (his teammate) will have a better year than a healthy Calvin Johnson, and there’s no reason for you to go out and draft a #2 receiver as early as Johnson is projected to go. That said, I do expect Johnson to have a big Week 1, but I think Roy will have a big week too, so…

Antonio Gates, Tight End, San Diego Chargers – The fools who have Antonio Gates ranked as the #1 tight end in all of fantasy football have to be the worst prognosticators ever. There is absolutely no way that Gates will finish the year as the top tight end, if he will finish the season at all. The man has missed training camp, barely practices now, and I’m not even sure I saw him play in the preseason, and I know for a fact he didn’t play in the team’s 3rd pre-season game. But if you want to bet the farm on Gates go ahead. We all know he’ll be taken in your fantasy football draft before just about every other tight end, which means you’ll be picking him way too high if you target him. If you do draft Gates as high as he has been going in drafts, that alone could ruin your entire draft. But hey, that’s just my fantasy football prediction.

More Fantasy Football Articles:

“Don’t Draft List” Part I
My 3 Bold Fantasy Predictions
Should You Trade Your First Pick
Fantasy Football Predictions Week 1 – Quarterbacks
Fantasy Football Predictions Week 1 – Running Backs
Fantasy Football Predictions Week 1 – Wide Receivers
Fantasy Football Predictions Week 1 – Tight Ends
Fantasy Football Predictions Week 1 – Defense