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2009 Fantasy Football Projections: Week 1 Sleeper Picks – Running Backs

The Sports Watchers — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 13:00:00 +0000

If you’re like me, and even if you have already had your fantasy football draft, you’re already thinking about fantasy football sleeper picks for Week 1 of the NFL season!

Well, I have a couple of picks at the running back position that not many people think will have a big Week 1. Here are my fantasy football sleeper picks for the opening week of the fantasy football season.

Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans
The defending champion Steelers will be looking to pummel the Tennessee Titans after the disrespect they figure the Titans gave them by stomping on the “Terrible Towel” last season. However, that’s not why I think Willie Parker will have a big day running the ball. To put it plainly, the loss of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is going to negatively effect this defense greater than the pundits are saying it will. The fact is, the Titans defense was far superior at stopping the run when Haynesworth was on the field. And when he wasn’t, they were egregious. I mean, not just bad, but they had a complete reversal of fortune when it came to stopping the run sans Haynesworth. Well, the Titans are going to get a taste of what their entire defense is going to look like in 2009 in the first week of the season. Luckily for Parker, he will be the first beneficiary of a Haynesworth-less Titans defense, and he should have a big day on the ground for the Steelers. In fact, last year Parker opened up the season with a career day, scoring 3 rushing touchdowns while rushing for 138 yards. So I’d bet on the fact that Parker is a fast starter and put him in the starting lineup as a sleeper pick for Week 1 of fantasy football.

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
It seems crazy to think that the fantasy football leader from a year ago could be a sleeper pick in Week 1 of the following season. However, a lot of mock drafts have Williams behind quarterbacks and wide receivers, so it’s not like he’s getting a ton of respect. Meanwhile, players like the oft-injured Steven Jackson and the never-done-it-before Maurice Jones-Drew are widely considered better pick ups in 2009 fantasy football drafts than last year’s point leader. Well, at least in Week 1, I’m going to put DeAngelo Williams ahead of them all. Williams is just too good not to have considerable value against an Eagles defense that has lost their middle linebacker. Don’t get me wrong, the Eagle in me believes Philly will work this out by season’s end, but in Week 1, I doubt the Eagles defense will have found its answer at the middle linebacker position. And expect Panthers coach John Fox to take advantage of that by running the ball down the throats of the Eagles front 7, and trust me, Williams will get the majority of the carries. As for those who are concerned about Jonathan Stewart stealing carries away from Williams, don’t be. You don’t come off an injury-plagued season and start stealing carries from the team’s thoroughbred, if you know what I’m saying?

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Sleeper Picks
1. Quarterback Sleeper Picks
2. Running Back Sleeper Picks
3. Wide Receiver Sleeper Picks
4. Tight Ends Sleeper Picks
5. Defensive Sleeper Picks

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Top Picks
1. Quarterback Projections
2. Running Back Projections
3. Wide Receiver Projections
4. Tight End Projections
5. Defensive Projections

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Extra Picks
1. Quarterback Fantasy Football Projections
2. Running Back Fantasy Football Projections
3. Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Projections
4. Tight End Fantasy Football Projections

Week 1 Fantasy Football Players to Watch: Steven Jackson

The Sports Watchers — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 18:27:00 +0000

As some of you know, I’m pretty high on Steven Jackson. I drafted him in 2 of my fantasy football leagues, and I do expect him to have one heck of a season in 2009. The only problem with my prediction of a big year for Steven Jackson is that nobody seems to agree with me.

Okay. Some people agree with me, to some degree. Steven Jackson appears to have gone 6th on average in fantasy football drafts. It was probably even higher before DeAngelo Williams started to climb the charts following concerns over the health of Jonathan Stewart. However, I think Jackson is much more valuable than then his 6th place ranking would suggest. To put it plainly, Jackson will have a better season than any running back in the league.

That’s right! I said it!

Some of you might think that statement contradicts both the TSW preseason running back rankings and the Top 10 rankings posted earlier this week. However, those rankings factor in perceived value. Realistically speaking, nobody but me and my crazy self thinks that Steven Jackson is going to be the best running back during the 2009 fantasy football season, and it takes a team of people to come up with those rankings.

That being said, perceived value doesn’t matter after the drafts. The only value that matters is how many points your fantasy football players are putting up on the board, and Steven Jackson is prime to score as many points as anyone else in football.

First, Steven Jackson wasn’t just good last year, game for game, he was the best running back in football, despite being dinged up for a good part of the season. In 2008, Jackson produced 1,422 yards from scrimmage in just 12 games. Extrapolate that number to cover 16 games, and the resulting figure of 1,896 yards is more yards than any running back in the NFL accumulated last season—and that was with depleted Rams offense. Not to mention, due to injury, Jackson only played in 1 quarter of one of his 12 games, which if you factor that in, Jackson’s extrapolated number goes over 2,000 yards, something he has done before in his career.

Of course, a lot of you are worried about Jackson’s team, the St. Louis Rams, and it’s ability to score points. I know; yards or nice, but in fantasy football points come in bulk with touchdowns. The Rams did only score 8 rushing touchdowns in 2008, but a lot of that was the result of their schedule. The Rams had to play the NFC East, and needless to say, they didn’t fair too well against those teams. They also played the AFC East, which had 3 teams with 9 wins or more and all four teams had reputable defenses. And one of the team’s other two non-divisional games came against a solid Bears defense. So at the end of the day, this team never really had a chance to gel as an offense. In facing superior teams, dealing with injuries to both Jackson and Marc Bulger, and having the most injured offensive line in football last year, the Rams offense shouldn’t have been good. But this year, everyone should enter Week 1 of fantasy football healthy, and they have an easier schedule than the AFC East and NFC East. So their scoring should improve significantly 2009.

And speaking of the schedule, have you seen how the Rams finish the season? Steven Jackson could flirt with history during the final 8 weeks of the fantasy football season. During the final 8 weeks of the season, Jackson will see the defenses of the Detroit Lions, the New Orleans Saints, the Arizona Cardinals twice, the Seattle Seahawks, a Chicago Bears defense that isn’t nearly as good as it was last year, the Houston Texans, the Tennessee Titans and the San Francisco 49ers. The only one of those defenses that scares me is Houston, which was a top 5 defense during the final 5 weeks of the season. The Titans rush defense won’t be nearly as good as it was last year now that Albert Haynesworth is with the Washington Redskins. And the Bears defense won’t be the same now that Tommie Harris has to virtually play the rest of his career on one leg. I almost gush when I say this, but Steven Jackson is going to tear the league up during the second half of the year. (And he should get off to a good start in Week 1)

So those reasons, and more, are why I believe Steven Jackson will be the best running back in all of fantasy football during the 2009 NFL season. People who are concerned with Jackson’s injuries over the last 2 years need to worry no longer. He ended the season with 62 carries for 269 yards and has never looked better. So sleep on Steven Jackson if you want to, but I’m scooping him up in every league I can, because once again, on the per-game basis, there wasn’t a more productive running back in football in 2008.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Top Picks
1. Quarterback Projections
2. Running Back Projections
3. Wide Receiver Projections
4. Tight End Projections
5. Defensive Projections

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Sleeper Picks
1. Quarterback Sleeper Picks
2. Running Back Sleeper Picks
3. Wide Receiver Sleeper Picks
4. Tight Ends Sleeper Picks
5. Defensive Sleeper Picks

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Duds
1. Quarterback Duds
2. Running back Duds
3. Wide Receiver Duds

Fantasy Football Week 1 – Buy or Sell
1. Quarterbacks: Buy Garrard, Sell Favre

The 2009 Fantasy Football Top 10 Players

The Sports Watchers — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:50:00 +0000

As you may have heard on my first Fantasy Football Podcast of the season, my 2009 Fantasy Football Top 10 is now available.

Of course, I have already given you the top 10 players at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. I have also given you the top players at the tight end position.

I have not given you my top selections for defenses or kickers, because in reality, I don’t think you should draft either until the final two rounds of your fantasy football draft.

With that said, here is the overall top 10, let me know if you disagree!

1. Adrian Peterson, Running Back: Adrian Peterson shouldn’t just be the first running back off the board, he should be the first player off it as well. Forget about all of the questions concerning injuries, fumbles, durability, shared time and lack of a consistent quarterback (Brett Favre included), the fact is, Peterson gets it done—now matter what! Much like a young LaDainian Tomlinson, Peterson is willing to run through a brick wall, so defenses can stack the box all the want, but Peterson is going to get his yards one way or another. Read More…

2. Matt Forte, Running Back: Say what you will about Matt Forte, but don’t last season a fluke. Forte wasn’t only a top performer last year, but he enters the 2009 season as the second-best running back, and one of the surest things in football. Sure, I’m a little weary as to how the Chicago Bears will use him this season, but barring a big offensive change or some freak injury, I don’t see how Forte won’t be successful during the 2009 fantasy football season. Read More…

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Running Back: I am little hesitant to put this much faith in a running back who has never had 200 carries before, but something tells me MJD will make it work. Personally, I’m not going to draft him, but that doesn’t mean that I disagree with his high position in drafts. Should everything go according to plan, MJD will be the 3rd best back in all of football, and if you don’t have the concerns I have about Jones-Drew’s ability to carry the load, then have no fear drafting him 3rd overall. Read More…

4. Michael Turner, Running Back: That’s right, Michael Turner isn’t that high on my board. Call me a believer in the 370-carry curse. I am fully aware that the 370-carry rule doesn’t work when you apply it to 365 or 360, which makes it kind of an anomaly, but time and time again, when tested, running backs fall flat on their face after 370-carry seasons. That said, this Falcons offense won’t allow that 370-curse to affect him too much. Thus, Turner should have a very good season, and 4th overall production is nothing to sneeze at. Read More…

5. Steven Jackson, Running Back: Steven Jackson is my sleeper pick of the bunch. Yes, I have him ranked #5 as many other sites did, but I’m willing to draft Jackson as high as 2nd overall, because in my opinion, he is headed for a very big season. Here is a guy who everyone is practically writing off as an elite back, but when healthy last season, he was the most productive player in football. In 2008 Jackson led all of fantasy football yards from scrimmage per game, and I don’t see why he can’t do that again in 2009—only without the missed games and whatnot. Read More…

6. LaDainian Tomlinson, Running Back: LT is not done quite yet. In fact, I could be underestimating LT. Let’s admit what everyone else isn’t, Tomlinson was hurt for a good part of last season. Sure, some of that comes with age, but do we really think he has fallen off so drastically from the heights he attained in 2007? I doubt it. As long as LT is healthy, he is going to be an elite running back in fantasy football, and the 2009 season should be no different. Read More…

7. DeAngelo Williams, Running Back: I will try not to gloat as the pack slowly comes back to me. Everyone was running away from DeAngelo Williams in fear that Jonathan Stewart was going to steal all of his carries and touchdowns at the drop of a dime. Well, I didn’t believe that for second, and I got a little help from history, too. It is being reported that Stewart has some undisclosed injury concerns right now, and if that is the case, expect the Panthers to stick by the guy who scored 18 rushing touchdowns for them a season ago. Read More…

8. Frank Gore, Running Back: The 49ers really have no one else. Their receiving core isn’t scary. Their defense isn’t great. And their quarterback is some guy most people hadn’t heard of until last year. Thus, what options do the 49ers have but to hand the ball off to Gore and hope for the best? That’s why head coach Mike Singletary fired Mike Martz and brought in a new offensive system designed around the run. Here’s to hoping it works, for my fantasy sake and yours. Read More…

9. Andre Johnson, Wide Receiver: I’m not a big fan of wide receivers in the first round, but I actually did the analysis and saw that drafting a wide receiver of Andre Johnson’s caliber is actually a better decision than drafting the 8th or 9th best running back. Running back just isn’t that deep this year, and let’s face it, Andre Johnson is a beast. Read More…

10. Drew Brees, Quarterback: Here I have another non-running back, and it’s also a controversial choice for its position. While I think Tom Brady will bounce back from his injury this season, I don’t think he will start fast. Brady will have a roller coaster first couple of weeks, as opposed to Drew Brees, who will have a monstrous season from the word go. Those 2 reasons suggest to me that Brees isn’t only the safer pick, but he’s the more prolific pick, too. Read More…

TSW 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Running Backs
10. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans (7/6/09, 9AM)
09. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants (7/6/09, 4PM)
08. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (7/7/09, 9AM)
07. Deangelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (7/7/09, 4PM)
06. LaDainian Tomlison, San Diego Chargers (7/8/09, 9AM)
05. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams (7/8/09, 4PM)
04. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons (7/9/09, 9AM)
03. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (7/9/09, 4PM)
02. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (7/10/09, 9AM)
01. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (7/10/09, 12PM)

TSW 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Quarterbacks
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
3. Peyton Manning, New England Patriots
4. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals
5. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
7. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles
8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks
9. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

TSW 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Wide Receivers
1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (8/3/09)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (8/1/09)
3. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (7/31/09)
4. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (7/30/09)
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (7/29/09)
6. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (7/28/09)
7. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills (7/27/09)
8. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (7/24/09)
9. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (7/23/09)
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (7/22/09)
11. Not Top Wide Receivers (7/21/09)

Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections:
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Quarterbacks
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Running Backs
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Wide Receivers
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Tight Ends
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Defenses

2009 Fantasy Football Projections: Arizona Cardinals

The Sports Watchers — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 22:14:00 +0000

So your favorite team is the Arizona Cardinals and you’re wondering how many Cardinals players are worthy of drafting to your 2009 fantasy football team…

While having too many players from one team isn’t great, having all of your favorite players spread across several leagues is okay. Here are the 2009 fantasy football projections for the Arizona Cardinals as a whole.

Kurt Warner, Quarterback
Warner is an easy one. He will probably lead the team in fantasy football points, since he has the benefit of being able to throw the ball to 3 amazing wide receivers, all the while standing behind a decent pass blocking offensive line. You just have to hope that Warner doesn’t get injured. He’s approaching 40, and football players of his ilk often find it hard to make it through an entire 16-game season—then again, there is Brett Favre.

Larry Fitzgerald, Wide Receiver
While Warner might be the most productive fantasy football option on the Cardinals, Fitzgerald is the most valuable. What he can do for your fantasy football team is immeasurable compared to what wide receivers outside of the top 4 or 5 can give you. Fitzgerald has the ability to turn a jump ball into breakaway score, and a big hit into a big touchdown. Fitzgerald is going high in drafts—first round high—so if you want him, you will have to pay a price.

Anquan Boldin, Wide Receiver
Fitzgerald is getting drafted in the first round, but Anquan Boldin is getting passed up left and right. I’m not sure why that is, because before Anquan went down with that devastating injury, Boldin had scored more fantasy points than Fitzgerald. Assuming Boldin is healthy and ready to play, I don’t see why he won’t be the best wide receiver for the Cardinals in 2009. Boldin is going to catch more touchdown passes, and he gets all of the passes over the short-middle of the field. So if you really want an elite fantasy wide receiver without paying an “elite” price, draft Boldin later in the draft.

Steve Breaston, Wide Receiver
Yes, the Cardinals are just about the only team in the National Football League that has 3 wide receivers worthy of selecting in fantasy football. Breaston was a beast when Boldin was out of the lineup, and even when he came back, Breaston continued to produce. Breaston is a great intermediate route runner for the Cards, and he has a tremendous ability for getting open on the sidelines. He will not catch a whole lot of touchdowns, because most of the red zone passes will be intended for Boldin, but he will give you a lot of yards, maybe even breaking the 1,000-yard mark for the second year in a row.

Chris “Beanie” Wells, Running Back
Sure, I’m not a big fan of Beanie Wells because of his history of injuries, but if he is healthy, he can be a serviceable solution at the running back position. Granted, the Cardinals offensive isn’t great, they don’t have a viable fullback, and no team passed the ball at a higher clip than the Cardinals did last year, but if you really like Wells, I guess YOU can take a chance on him.

Tim Hightower, Running Back
While Wells is getting all of the pub, the fact is, Hightower appears to be the front runner for the starting running back job in Arizona. Still don’t expect much from him yardage wise, but he could become a fantasy football touchdown machine in the red zone, where the high-powered Cardinals offense is sure to be many times this season.

Other Wide Receiver Rankings
1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (8/3/09)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (8/1/09)
3. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (7/31/09)
4. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (7/30/09)
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (7/29/09)
6. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (7/28/09)
7. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills (7/27/09)
8. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (7/24/09)
9. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (7/23/09)
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (7/22/09)
11. Not Top Wide Receivers (7/21/09)

More Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections:
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Quarterbacks
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Running Backs
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Wide Receivers
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Tight Ends
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Defenses

TSW Preseason Fantasy Football Rankings – Quarterbacks
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
3. Peyton Manning, New England Patriots
4. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals
5. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
7. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles
8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks
9. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Fantasy Football Projections: The Fall of Brandon Marshall

The Sports Watchers — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 19:10:00 +0000

How does a guy go from potentially being one of the 5 best wide receivers in football to maybe not even ranking ahead of Wes Welker in fantasy value?

Just ask Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall.

Wide receiver Brandon Marshall was amazing last year. Despite missing the first game of the 2008 season due to an NFL mandated suspension, Marshall led the NFL in targets and caught 104 passes from former then Denver Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler. But it doesn’t look as if he’ll be ranking among the best fantasy football wide receivers in 2009.

While Marshall is a top-tier wide receiver in terms of talent, he lacks the supporting cast of quality players to reproduce the types of numbers he had just a season ago. Cutler left for the Chicago Bears, leaving Marshall with a couple of fantasy football duds at quarterback, including Kyle Orton behind center and Chris Simms backing him up. At running back, the Broncos continue to have issues, so it’s highly unlikely that the rushing game will take any heat off of Marshall. And the coaching staff led by Josh McDaniels may be fired before we even get to Week 7 of the fantasy football season.

Yes, it’s that crazy in Denver.

What does all of this mean for Brandon Marshall’s fantasy football projections?

Less production.

Marshall won’t catch 104 balls this season. He’ll be lucky if he gets 75. Randy Moss was the main guy in McDaniels’ 2008 Patriots offense, and he caught just 69 passes—and as McDaniel has made quite clear, neither Kyle Orton or Jay Cutler is “as good” as Matt Cassel.

Brandon Marshall won’t amass last year’s receiving total1,265 yards either. Moss barely broke 1,000 yards in McDaniels’ offense last year, and that was in Moss’s second year of the system. Once again, I recognize they had Cassel instead of Tom Brady; but once again, we know how much McDaniels loved Cassel.

And Brandon Marshall probably won’t even get the mere 6 touchdowns he scored last year. Whilst Moss caught 11 TDs in 2008, his offense was better, with a better offensive line, and he had a defense that got the Patriots the ball more often than the Broncos defense will. And did I mention he had had Matt Cassel?

Yes, Brandon Marshall’s fantasy football value, and perhaps his future NFL earnings, has been diminished all because Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, a rookie coach, jeopardized the entire structure of his team’s personnel, because he was in love with a quarterback that started playing for the first in half-a-decade. How anyone can be mad at Marshall for wanting out of there is beyond me, but drafting him to your fantasy football team would be even more outlandish.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings
1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (8/3/09)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (8/1/09)
3. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (7/31/09)
4. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (7/30/09)
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (7/29/09)
6. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (7/28/09)
7. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills (7/27/09)
8. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (7/24/09)
9. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (7/23/09)
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (7/22/09)
11. Not Top Wide Receivers (7/21/09)

Fantasy Football Projections: Why I’m Down on Calvin Johnson

The Sports Watchers — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 18:30:00 +0000

I have been a getting a lot of pushback for leaving Calvin Johnson off my 2009 Fantasy Football Top 10 Wide Receiver Rankings. As I explained in my “Not Top 10,” it is nothing against Calvin Johnson’s ability, I just don’t believe in his Detroit Lions teammates.

At some point this season, after Daunte Culpepper has taken a licking, Matthew Stafford is going to become the starting quarterback for the Detroit Lions. While a lot of people have high hopes for Stafford in his first year, I just can’t be a believer. There is absolutely no way that Stafford will have a positive effect on Johnson’s numbers or my fantasy football projection for those numbers.

I understand that Calvin Johnson amassed 78 catches, for 1,331 yards and a league-leading (tied) 12 touchdown catches. Although that’s very impressive, I would argue that it’s too impressive. What Johnson did with virtually no one of substance playing quarterback for the Lions throughout 2008 is amazing! In my mind, it borders on Tom-Brady-50-touchdowns-impressive, because I’ve never seen a wide receiver dominate like that when no one else on his team was worth a nickel of salary cap space.

With his 2008 season seeming so impressive to me, how can I really expect him to do that again, especially when a rookie quarterback will be throwing him the ball for a good portion of the season?

If Daunte Culpepper were to play the entire season, perhaps I would move Johnson into the top 10 wide receiver rankings, but that’s not going to happen. And that’s a shame for Calvin Johnson, because with offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and Culpepper hooking up, who knows what kind of fire could be reignited between the former Minnesota Vikings?

But that fire, however big it may get, will be extinguished at some point during the 2009 fantasy football season, and so will Johnson’s fantasy projections. Stafford may be smart and talented, but he’s not exactly the best quarterback we have ever seen coming out of college. In fact, it’s safe to say that in 5 of the last 6 NFL Drafts, each of the quarterbacks taken first among other quarterbacks would have been drafted ahead of Stafford. Not to say he won’t be a good quarterback in the NFL, but to expect him to perform at a level far exceeding that of the average rookie quarterback would be foolish.

And getting away from the play of the quarterback, how about the fact that Linehan likes to spread the ball around? He likes having multiple options and spreading the field. That’s not to say he won’t make an effort to get Johnson the ball, but he won’t do it to the complete detriment of his system, and a big reason for Johnson’s 2008 numbers was the fact that he was targeted 33.4% of the time last year—the 3rd highest such percentage in the NFL last year.

So draft Johnson among the top 10 wide receivers if you want to, it’ll just push someone more valuable into a “steal” position in your fantasy draft. But even as I recognize that I could be completely wrong about my projection of Calvin Johnson’s fantasy football value, betting on the Lions to fail is probably the safest bet in football this year.

2009 Fantasy Football Sleeper Picks: Brent Celek, Tight End

The Sports Watchers — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 19:23:00 +0000

There are a lot of mistakes that even the best fantasy football players make year after year. Sometimes you don’t draft a viable backup quarterback. Maybe you got two running backs with the same bye week. Or perhaps you bid way too much to get Adrian Peterson in your auction draft.

Well, if you keep your eye out for this fantasy football sleeper pick, perhaps you won’t make the yearly mistake of getting 0 production out of your tight end position.

Since I started playing fantasy football in 1997, I have rarely been a part of a season where there were more than 3 or 4 viable tight ends in the league that could give you consistent week to week production. The 2009 fantasy football season is no different. We know we’ll get production from Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark, but every other tight end is either on a new team, has a new quarter back or lost their quarterback from the year before.

Well, there is one other tight end that produced last year and is entering the 2009 fantasy football season with everything he had in place at the end of the year. That guy is Brent Celek of the Philadelphia Eagles, and he is my newest fantasy football projection as a sleeper pick for the 2009 season.

Celek didn’t have the best 2008 ever. He started off as the backup to L.J. Smith, so right there, that eliminated a lot of the production he could have had. But once Celek started to assume a starter’s role in the Eagles offense, the man was on fire.

In a season where he was mostly a backup, Celek had 3 catches in 8 different games last year, including the playoffs, where he was 3 for 3. In fact, in the NFC Championship game, Celek caught 10 passes for 83 yards, seemingly developing chemistry with Donovan McNabb right before our eyes.

Now that Brent Celek is the starter, we know he has the potential to thrive in this West Coast offense. Yes, the Eagles have some more weapons at wide receiver, and both DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis will be used. However, long before those two, and before many of the other wide receivers that came in and out of Donovan McNabb’s life in Philadelphia, there was Chad Lewis. For many a season, Lewis was the best receiver on the Eagles, and he was the most looked after target of the McNabb. In Andy Reid’s offense, the tight end is the quarterback’s best friend, and if McNabb and Celek do have this rapport, expect Celek’s numbers to climb.

Now, I’m not saying go out with the intention of making Celek your #1 tight end pick, because you certainly don’t want to pass up on some steals with greater potential this season. However, Celek has a lot of value going forward, and there’s a good chance that his 2008 numbers (38 catches, 347 yards in 10 starts) will get better as the season goes along. Besides, Celek isn’t going among the top 10 tight ends in the league, so will have plenty of opportunity to draft him, just make sure you keep him in sleeper pick range and don’t overreach for him.

Fantasy Football Librarian: Average Draft Rankings Analysis

The Sports Watchers — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:30:00 +0000

Interested in the World Wide Web’s opinion of fantasy football rankings for the upcoming 2009 NFL season?

Well, the Fantasy Football Librarian has just hooked you up!

On her site, the FFL provides you with an average of the top 100 players in fantasy football rankings from the internet’s most visited websites.

You can check it out at fflibrarian.com.

As for my analysis of the top 10 Average Draft Rankings (ADR) across all major fantasy football websites (as determined by FFL), let’s take a look:

1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (ADR: 1.10) – Let me just note, that as I write this, Brett Favre has reportedly signed with the Minnesota Vikings. That means many more running lanes for Peterson, because no longer can teams put an 8th man in the box without fear of being burned by one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the history of the game. So if you ask me, Peterson’s AR may get even closer to the #1.

2. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons (ADR: 2.90) – You all know how I feel about Michael Turner. He carried the ball 370 times last year. History tells us that any running back that got that many carries the year before doesn’t fair well as a fantasy football option the next season. Could Turner be the exception? I highly doubt it; especially since that was the first time in his life that he has ever carried that ball that much. So in all likelihood, I think Michael “The Burner” Tuner will be a little bit burned out during the 2009 fantasy football season. He’s still a top 10 pick, but not #2 in my fantasy football projections.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADR: 3.20) – Everyone likes MJD, including myself. However, even I am beginning to becoming a little skeptical since he has never carried the entire load for a rushing attack before. Then again, the guy we just talked about, Michael Turner, was the same way last year, and he did just fine. So I’m assuming that even if MJD can’t quite handle getting all of the carries, his versatility in the passing game should be enough compensation to keep him among the elite fantasy running backs.

4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (ADR: 3.90) – There is a 0.7 AR drop from MJD to Forte, which tells me that people are really down on Forte this season in comparison to MJD. I’m not sure why seeing as how Forte has a better quarterback and is going to be a more developed running back in his second year. That’s why I have Forte ranked as the second best running back in fantasy football, but it seems like a lot of people disagree with me.

5. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams (ADR: 6.00) – This is the biggest jump in AR thus far, meaning there is a clear divide between the top 4 running backs in fantasy football and the rest of the league. However, Jackson is a great pick up this season. Assuming he’s healthy, his offensive line should be much improved, and his quarterback, although hurt at the moment, should be in for a solid season. Not to mention, he plays in the NFC West, which is completely devoid of defense. And you can’t forget that this man led the league in yards from scrimmage per game last season; so when’s healthy, he’s the most productive back in fantasy football.

6. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (ADR: 6.50) – This is very interesting to me, because a lot of sites rank Williams quite low, and ESPN Mock Drafts have Williams going 9th or 10th in their leagues. A lot of this is based on the idea that Jonathan Stewart is going to steal a lot of carries from Williams this season, but I highly doubt that’s the case.

7. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers (ADR: 8.60) – Here we have another big drop off in AR. Most of it has to be because people think LT is done and because Darren Sproles is expected to get a lot of carries this season. Well, reports are that LT looks very good in camp, and if he’s healthy, I don’t see how Coach Norv Turner can take him out of the game too often. But beware! Turner might try to save LT if the Chargers wrap up the AFC West early, because LT hasn’t been healthy in postseason for quite some time now.

8. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans (ADR: 8.90) – My problem with this high of a ranking for Chris Johnson has nothing to do with him. If he were the sole feature back in Tennessee, perhaps I’d believe he is worth being a top 10 pick, but he’s not. He shares the rock, and most importantly, he shares the touchdown carries with LenDale White. And why would I want a running back that is going to only going to get a limited number of his own team’s touchdown carries? Sorry, but I’ll pass on Johnson in the first round.

9. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (ADR: 9.50) – I don’t like having wide receivers in the top 10, especially when I don’t agree that this particular wide receiver will produce the most fantasy football points in 2009. That said, if you read my analysis on drafting wide receivers in the first round, you’ll see that Larry Fitzgerald is a good value pick at the 10th spot in the draft. Anything higher than that, however, is ridiculous.

10. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (ADR: 10.30) – I understand Frank Gore at this position. We know what he can do. We know that the 49ers are going to run the ball a lot. And we expect the team to be a lot better with Shaun Hill running the show, should he win the starting job. And did I mention that Gore plays in the NFC West?

Wide Receiver Rankings
1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (8/3/09)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (8/1/09)
3. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (7/31/09)
4. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (7/30/09)
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (7/29/09)
6. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (7/28/09)
7. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills (7/27/09)
8. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (7/24/09)
9. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (7/23/09)
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (7/22/09)
11. Not Top Wide Receivers (7/21/09)

Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Tom Brady or Drew Brees?

The Sports Watchers — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 20:08:00 +0000

Despite what I have said, the people have spoken. I ranked Drew Brees as the #1 quarterback in fantasy football in my 2009 preseason quarterback rankings. I then preceded to rank Tom Brady as the #5 quarterback in my ratings, due to his likely knee issues in returning to the field.

However, while many agree with me on Brees (Average Draft Position of 10th overall), the entire world is scoffing at the notion that Brady won’t be a top 2 quarterback during the 2009 fantasy football season (ADP: 12th overall).

Well, I scoff back!

Certainly, I will admit to the fact that my fantasy football rankings are somewhat based on having some certainty in your pick (ehemm, safe). And I think it’s quite clear that Brady will struggle, to some degree, with his surgically repaired knee and essentially not having played a full game of football since February 2008. Now, some may argue as to just how much Brady will struggle, but if that potential is there, I’m not sure why anyone would gamble on Brady with the likes of Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Kurt Warner available for the taking.

I don’t want to hear this mess about how Brady has had 9 months to recover, which is far more than some of the other quarterbacks who have had similar injuries (i.e. Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper). Truth is, he really hasn’t had that much more time than them. McNabb went down in Week 10, while Culpepper went down in Week 8. That means that Brady had 7 to 9 more weeks then those two to get recover; however, he had his surgery late, and those two didn’t have the kind of setbacks that Brady had. Thus, I would argue that McNabb and Culpepper had just as much time to recover as Brady had.

And even if you want to give Brady credit for more recovery time, I don’t think that’s the issue. Fact is, neither Brady, nor McNabb, nor Palmer nor Culpepper would have played had they not been physically able to do so. As a result, I’m not talking about Brady’s physical condition; I’m talking about his mental condition.

I don’t think Tom Brady is ready to step up in the pocket, feel the heat of the rush, get a game-speed rhythm with his receivers, or adapt to crazy defenses. Not to say that it isn’t all there for Brady, because he can and will be able to do those things again, and I’m sure we’ll see flashes of it in preseason. Nevertheless, when you’re away from the game so long, and you’re returning from such a devastating injury, most players, especially quarterbacks, have a difficult time getting reacclimated to the game. It’s natural. It doesn’t make Brady any less of a quarterback, it just means that he will need time to get back to being the Brady of old.

With all that said, at worst, Brady goes for 25 touchdowns, and at best, maybe he eclipses 40. So if you’re a Favre-like riverboat gambler, then go with Tom Brady. But you know Drew Brees is going to get you 32+ touchdowns and 4,500 yards—at minimum! And while his upside may not be as high as Brady’s (emphasis on the word “may”), by all fantasy football projections and estimations, he is the safer bet for the 2009 fantasy football season. And if you’re drafting a quarterback in the first round, which is just about where Brady and Brees’s ADP numbers are, then don’t you want the sure thing?

2009 Fantasy Football Projections: Top 5 Defenses

The Sports Watchers — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 21:00:00 +0000

Uh, I hate projecting what defenses are going to do in fantasy football, because the truth is, we don’t really know. Most defenses appear to be something they aren’t come preseason, and by Week 3, we’re all scratching our heads as to why we didn’t foresee this weakness or that strength in a particular defense. Nonetheless, using history as our friend, I will try to give you the top 5 defenses as we approach the start of fantasy football. Let’s hope we’re not scratching our heads with these fantasy picks come mid-September.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Yeah, how can I not lead with a Super Bowl winning defense that led the league in yards allowed and points, a feat for only the best of defenses out there. They stopped the run, they stopped the pass, and if somehow you got near the end zone via special teams, they kept you knocking on the door all season long. This defense is just too fierce, and considering linebacker James Harrison should be well rested after skipping out on a White House visit, how can we not expect him to lead this defense to another stellar year in 2009? Draft the Steelers defense with supreme confidence.

New York Jets – How can you not like this defense? With new head coach Rex Ryan bringing his fierce defensive style from Baltimore, this team is apt to be the best defense in the NFL. The Jets were already a great defense last year, especially before NT Kris Jenkins was hurt for the last several weeks of the season. But they brought him some more help for the 2009 season, with LB Bart Scott, CB Lito Sheppard, and S Jim Leonard. Now the Jets have one of the best cornerback duos in the league with Sheppard and Darrelle Rivas. They also have two good safeties with Leonard and Kerr Rhodes. Not to mention, Scott and David Harris will combine to make one of the elite inside linebacking tandems in the NFL. With all of this talent, old and new, under Rex Ryan’s system, it’s scary to think about what this team might be able to do for your fantasy football team in 2009.

Philadelphia Eagles – Full disclosure, I am an Eagles fan. I know the loss of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is big for the Eagles defense, but the man was such a great teacher of the game (see Steve Spagnuolo), that his successor is surely prepared to take over the reigns. Besides, the defensive system isn’t changing and the talent level didn’t get any worse, so it will be up to the guys on the field to execute. And don’t expect the Eagles to become any less aggressive. In fact, with Johnson no longer with us, it’s likely that a successor would be inclined to blitz more in order to keep in line with the intimidation factor Johnson liked his defenses to project. And blitzing is good when it comes to fantasy football. Sure, it can lead to some bad performances (see both Eagles games against Arizona last year), but against poor to mediocre teams, it’s an amazing feature, often leaving inferior teams with no options but to watch the clock run out.

New York Giants – Steve Spagnuolo is gone from the defense he transformed, but they, like the Eagles, shouldn’t take a huge step back. Besides, they signed a major free agent on defense this offseason. You know who I’m talking about! Osi Umenyiora! Okay, so technically, he’s not a free agent, but he didn’t play at all last year, making his return to this top 5 defense from a year ago that much more impactful. This Giants defensive line now boast Umenyiora, Rocky Benard, Mathias Kiwanuka and Justin Tuck, among others. Wow! This team is going to eat quarterbacks up this season, leaving their secondary in prime position to makes plays on balls and take picks back to the house.

Baltimore Ravens – Sure, I could pass on the Ravens because they lost Rex Ryan, but that would just be stupid. Yes, Ryan was an emotionally-charged, defensive genius, but the Ravens were the best defense ever before he got there, and they will still be a good defense now that he’s gone. They should be a lot healthier at the cornerback positions with Fabian Washington and Dominique Foxworth bringing youth and athleticism to the position. Of course, Ed Reed is back in the secondary to help them out, and Ray Lewis will continue to be dominant as long as NT Haloti Ngata and OLB Terrell Suggs are controlling the line of scrimmage. Expect this defense to continue to be stellar in 2009, and maybe even better than they were a year ago, as QB Joe Flacco’s added year of experience should keep the defense on the sideline at least a little bit more.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Player vs. Player
1. Carson Palmer vs. Denver Secondary
2. Adrian Peterson vs. D’Qwell Jackson
3. Vincent Jackson vs. Nnamdi Asomugha

Week 1 Fantasy Football – Position vs. Position
1. Quarterbacks – Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees
2. Running Backs – Steven Jackson vs. Brandon Jacobs
3. Wide Receivers – Randy Moss vs. Terrell Owens
4. Tight Ends – Greg Olsen vs. Jason Witten