As some of you know, I’m pretty high on Steven Jackson. I drafted him in 2 of my fantasy football leagues, and I do expect him to have one heck of a season in 2009. The only problem with my prediction of a big year for Steven Jackson is that nobody seems to agree with me.

Okay. Some people agree with me, to some degree. Steven Jackson appears to have gone 6th on average in fantasy football drafts. It was probably even higher before DeAngelo Williams started to climb the charts following concerns over the health of Jonathan Stewart. However, I think Jackson is much more valuable than then his 6th place ranking would suggest. To put it plainly, Jackson will have a better season than any running back in the league.

That’s right! I said it!

Some of you might think that statement contradicts both the TSW preseason running back rankings and the Top 10 rankings posted earlier this week. However, those rankings factor in perceived value. Realistically speaking, nobody but me and my crazy self thinks that Steven Jackson is going to be the best running back during the 2009 fantasy football season, and it takes a team of people to come up with those rankings.

That being said, perceived value doesn’t matter after the drafts. The only value that matters is how many points your fantasy football players are putting up on the board, and Steven Jackson is prime to score as many points as anyone else in football.

First, Steven Jackson wasn’t just good last year, game for game, he was the best running back in football, despite being dinged up for a good part of the season. In 2008, Jackson produced 1,422 yards from scrimmage in just 12 games. Extrapolate that number to cover 16 games, and the resulting figure of 1,896 yards is more yards than any running back in the NFL accumulated last season—and that was with depleted Rams offense. Not to mention, due to injury, Jackson only played in 1 quarter of one of his 12 games, which if you factor that in, Jackson’s extrapolated number goes over 2,000 yards, something he has done before in his career.

Of course, a lot of you are worried about Jackson’s team, the St. Louis Rams, and it’s ability to score points. I know; yards or nice, but in fantasy football points come in bulk with touchdowns. The Rams did only score 8 rushing touchdowns in 2008, but a lot of that was the result of their schedule. The Rams had to play the NFC East, and needless to say, they didn’t fair too well against those teams. They also played the AFC East, which had 3 teams with 9 wins or more and all four teams had reputable defenses. And one of the team’s other two non-divisional games came against a solid Bears defense. So at the end of the day, this team never really had a chance to gel as an offense. In facing superior teams, dealing with injuries to both Jackson and Marc Bulger, and having the most injured offensive line in football last year, the Rams offense shouldn’t have been good. But this year, everyone should enter Week 1 of fantasy football healthy, and they have an easier schedule than the AFC East and NFC East. So their scoring should improve significantly 2009.

And speaking of the schedule, have you seen how the Rams finish the season? Steven Jackson could flirt with history during the final 8 weeks of the fantasy football season. During the final 8 weeks of the season, Jackson will see the defenses of the Detroit Lions, the New Orleans Saints, the Arizona Cardinals twice, the Seattle Seahawks, a Chicago Bears defense that isn’t nearly as good as it was last year, the Houston Texans, the Tennessee Titans and the San Francisco 49ers. The only one of those defenses that scares me is Houston, which was a top 5 defense during the final 5 weeks of the season. The Titans rush defense won’t be nearly as good as it was last year now that Albert Haynesworth is with the Washington Redskins. And the Bears defense won’t be the same now that Tommie Harris has to virtually play the rest of his career on one leg. I almost gush when I say this, but Steven Jackson is going to tear the league up during the second half of the year. (And he should get off to a good start in Week 1)

So those reasons, and more, are why I believe Steven Jackson will be the best running back in all of fantasy football during the 2009 NFL season. People who are concerned with Jackson’s injuries over the last 2 years need to worry no longer. He ended the season with 62 carries for 269 yards and has never looked better. So sleep on Steven Jackson if you want to, but I’m scooping him up in every league I can, because once again, on the per-game basis, there wasn’t a more productive running back in football in 2008.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Top Picks
1. Quarterback Projections
2. Running Back Projections
3. Wide Receiver Projections
4. Tight End Projections
5. Defensive Projections

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Extra Picks
1. Quarterback Fantasy Football Projections
2. Running Back Fantasy Football Projections
3. Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Projections
4. Tight End Fantasy Football Projections

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Sleeper Picks
1. Quarterback Sleeper Picks
2. Running Back Sleeper Picks
3. Wide Receiver Sleeper Picks
4. Tight Ends Sleeper Picks
5. Defensive Sleeper Picks

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Duds
1. Quarterback Duds
2. Running back Duds
3. Wide Receiver Duds

Fantasy Football Week 1 – Buy or Sell
1. Quarterbacks: Buy Garrard, Sell Favre

As you may have heard on my first Fantasy Football Podcast of the season, my 2009 Fantasy Football Top 10 is now available.

Of course, I have already given you the top 10 players at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. I have also given you the top players at the tight end position.

I have not given you my top selections for defenses or kickers, because in reality, I don’t think you should draft either until the final two rounds of your fantasy football draft.

With that said, here is the overall top 10, let me know if you disagree!

1. Adrian Peterson, Running Back: Adrian Peterson shouldn’t just be the first running back off the board, he should be the first player off it as well. Forget about all of the questions concerning injuries, fumbles, durability, shared time and lack of a consistent quarterback (Brett Favre included), the fact is, Peterson gets it done—now matter what! Much like a young LaDainian Tomlinson, Peterson is willing to run through a brick wall, so defenses can stack the box all the want, but Peterson is going to get his yards one way or another. Read More…

2. Matt Forte, Running Back: Say what you will about Matt Forte, but don’t last season a fluke. Forte wasn’t only a top performer last year, but he enters the 2009 season as the second-best running back, and one of the surest things in football. Sure, I’m a little weary as to how the Chicago Bears will use him this season, but barring a big offensive change or some freak injury, I don’t see how Forte won’t be successful during the 2009 fantasy football season. Read More…

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Running Back: I am little hesitant to put this much faith in a running back who has never had 200 carries before, but something tells me MJD will make it work. Personally, I’m not going to draft him, but that doesn’t mean that I disagree with his high position in drafts. Should everything go according to plan, MJD will be the 3rd best back in all of football, and if you don’t have the concerns I have about Jones-Drew’s ability to carry the load, then have no fear drafting him 3rd overall. Read More…

4. Michael Turner, Running Back: That’s right, Michael Turner isn’t that high on my board. Call me a believer in the 370-carry curse. I am fully aware that the 370-carry rule doesn’t work when you apply it to 365 or 360, which makes it kind of an anomaly, but time and time again, when tested, running backs fall flat on their face after 370-carry seasons. That said, this Falcons offense won’t allow that 370-curse to affect him too much. Thus, Turner should have a very good season, and 4th overall production is nothing to sneeze at. Read More…

5. Steven Jackson, Running Back: Steven Jackson is my sleeper pick of the bunch. Yes, I have him ranked #5 as many other sites did, but I’m willing to draft Jackson as high as 2nd overall, because in my opinion, he is headed for a very big season. Here is a guy who everyone is practically writing off as an elite back, but when healthy last season, he was the most productive player in football. In 2008 Jackson led all of fantasy football yards from scrimmage per game, and I don’t see why he can’t do that again in 2009—only without the missed games and whatnot. Read More…

6. LaDainian Tomlinson, Running Back: LT is not done quite yet. In fact, I could be underestimating LT. Let’s admit what everyone else isn’t, Tomlinson was hurt for a good part of last season. Sure, some of that comes with age, but do we really think he has fallen off so drastically from the heights he attained in 2007? I doubt it. As long as LT is healthy, he is going to be an elite running back in fantasy football, and the 2009 season should be no different. Read More…

7. DeAngelo Williams, Running Back: I will try not to gloat as the pack slowly comes back to me. Everyone was running away from DeAngelo Williams in fear that Jonathan Stewart was going to steal all of his carries and touchdowns at the drop of a dime. Well, I didn’t believe that for second, and I got a little help from history, too. It is being reported that Stewart has some undisclosed injury concerns right now, and if that is the case, expect the Panthers to stick by the guy who scored 18 rushing touchdowns for them a season ago. Read More…

8. Frank Gore, Running Back: The 49ers really have no one else. Their receiving core isn’t scary. Their defense isn’t great. And their quarterback is some guy most people hadn’t heard of until last year. Thus, what options do the 49ers have but to hand the ball off to Gore and hope for the best? That’s why head coach Mike Singletary fired Mike Martz and brought in a new offensive system designed around the run. Here’s to hoping it works, for my fantasy sake and yours. Read More…

9. Andre Johnson, Wide Receiver: I’m not a big fan of wide receivers in the first round, but I actually did the analysis and saw that drafting a wide receiver of Andre Johnson’s caliber is actually a better decision than drafting the 8th or 9th best running back. Running back just isn’t that deep this year, and let’s face it, Andre Johnson is a beast. Read More…

10. Drew Brees, Quarterback: Here I have another non-running back, and it’s also a controversial choice for its position. While I think Tom Brady will bounce back from his injury this season, I don’t think he will start fast. Brady will have a roller coaster first couple of weeks, as opposed to Drew Brees, who will have a monstrous season from the word go. Those 2 reasons suggest to me that Brees isn’t only the safer pick, but he’s the more prolific pick, too. Read More…

TSW 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Running Backs
10. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans (7/6/09, 9AM)
09. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants (7/6/09, 4PM)
08. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (7/7/09, 9AM)
07. Deangelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (7/7/09, 4PM)
06. LaDainian Tomlison, San Diego Chargers (7/8/09, 9AM)
05. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams (7/8/09, 4PM)
04. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons (7/9/09, 9AM)
03. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (7/9/09, 4PM)
02. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (7/10/09, 9AM)
01. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (7/10/09, 12PM)

TSW 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Quarterbacks
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
3. Peyton Manning, New England Patriots
4. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals
5. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
7. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles
8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks
9. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

TSW 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Wide Receivers
1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (8/3/09)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (8/1/09)
3. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (7/31/09)
4. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (7/30/09)
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (7/29/09)
6. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (7/28/09)
7. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills (7/27/09)
8. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (7/24/09)
9. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (7/23/09)
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (7/22/09)
11. Not Top Wide Receivers (7/21/09)

Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections:
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Quarterbacks
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Running Backs
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Wide Receivers
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Tight Ends
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Defenses

How does a guy go from potentially being one of the 5 best wide receivers in football to maybe not even ranking ahead of Wes Welker in fantasy value?

Just ask Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall.

Wide receiver Brandon Marshall was amazing last year. Despite missing the first game of the 2008 season due to an NFL mandated suspension, Marshall led the NFL in targets and caught 104 passes from former then Denver Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler. But it doesn’t look as if he’ll be ranking among the best fantasy football wide receivers in 2009.

While Marshall is a top-tier wide receiver in terms of talent, he lacks the supporting cast of quality players to reproduce the types of numbers he had just a season ago. Cutler left for the Chicago Bears, leaving Marshall with a couple of fantasy football duds at quarterback, including Kyle Orton behind center and Chris Simms backing him up. At running back, the Broncos continue to have issues, so it’s highly unlikely that the rushing game will take any heat off of Marshall. And the coaching staff led by Josh McDaniels may be fired before we even get to Week 7 of the fantasy football season.

Yes, it’s that crazy in Denver.

What does all of this mean for Brandon Marshall’s fantasy football projections?

Less production.

Marshall won’t catch 104 balls this season. He’ll be lucky if he gets 75. Randy Moss was the main guy in McDaniels’ 2008 Patriots offense, and he caught just 69 passes—and as McDaniel has made quite clear, neither Kyle Orton or Jay Cutler is “as good” as Matt Cassel.

Brandon Marshall won’t amass last year’s receiving total1,265 yards either. Moss barely broke 1,000 yards in McDaniels’ offense last year, and that was in Moss’s second year of the system. Once again, I recognize they had Cassel instead of Tom Brady; but once again, we know how much McDaniels loved Cassel.

And Brandon Marshall probably won’t even get the mere 6 touchdowns he scored last year. Whilst Moss caught 11 TDs in 2008, his offense was better, with a better offensive line, and he had a defense that got the Patriots the ball more often than the Broncos defense will. And did I mention he had had Matt Cassel?

Yes, Brandon Marshall’s fantasy football value, and perhaps his future NFL earnings, has been diminished all because Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, a rookie coach, jeopardized the entire structure of his team’s personnel, because he was in love with a quarterback that started playing for the first in half-a-decade. How anyone can be mad at Marshall for wanting out of there is beyond me, but drafting him to your fantasy football team would be even more outlandish.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings
1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (8/3/09)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (8/1/09)
3. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (7/31/09)
4. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (7/30/09)
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (7/29/09)
6. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (7/28/09)
7. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills (7/27/09)
8. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (7/24/09)
9. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (7/23/09)
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (7/22/09)
11. Not Top Wide Receivers (7/21/09)

TSW Preseason Fantasy Football Rankings – Quarterbacks
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
3. Peyton Manning, New England Patriots
4. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals
5. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
7. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles
8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks
9. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

TSW 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Running Backs
10. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans (7/6/09, 9AM)
09. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants (7/6/09, 4PM)
08. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (7/7/09, 9AM)
07. Deangelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (7/7/09, 4PM)
06. LaDainian Tomlison, San Diego Chargers (7/8/09, 9AM)
05. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams (7/8/09, 4PM)
04. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons (7/9/09, 9AM)
03. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (7/9/09, 4PM)
02. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (7/10/09, 9AM)
01. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (7/10/09, 12PM)

More Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections:
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Quarterbacks
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Running Backs
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Wide Receivers
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Tight Ends
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Defenses

So the question of the moment is, does the number one pick in fantasy football change if you’re in points per reception league? And if so, who then becomes the #1 overall pick in PPR leagues?

Well, first of all, yes. The #1 pick does change in PPR leagues. I do not think that Adrian Peterson is the #1 overall pick in fantasy football if points are being allotted for catching passes. The fact is, Adrian Peterson only caught 21 passes last season (and 40 for his career), and with the ongoing problems at the quarterback position in Minnesota, I wouldn’t count on him catching more than 1 pass a game during the 2009 fantasy football season. So while I hate to say it, Adrian Peterson probably drops down to the 3rd best running back in fantasy football in PPR leagues.

So which running back takes over as the projected #1 overall pick in fantasy football? Well, to be truthful, I’m not so sure. But I do have it narrowed down to the top 2.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
Forte becomes an obvious option, because the Bears offense was so dependent on him last season. Not only did Forte go over 300 rushing attempts (in his rookie year!), but he also had 63 receptions. So in a PPR leagues where 1 point is given for each catch, that’s 63 extra points for Forte.

However, the caveat is that Forte might not be relied upon in the passing game that much this season. With the insertion of quarterback Jay Cutler into the Bears offense, the team now has a quarterback that is more capable of getting the ball down the field. In fact, I don’t mind saying that Cutler is the type of quarterback that is more apt to throw it down field than check it off to the running back, even when maybe he should do the latter. But Cutler’s decision-making aside, the offense as a whole will be more inclined to the get the ball down the sidelines and over the middle of the field to Greg Olsen. As a result, I don’t think the Bears will rely on Forte’s pass-catching ability as much in 2009.

So how many catches are we talking about here? If I have to guess, I would say about 45 catches for Forte this season. Like I said, there’s no way he’s getting the 63 from a year ago, but I think 45 is a safe number.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Maurice Jones-Drew (MJD) is the sexy pick of the 2009 fantasy football season. Every fantasy football projection in the world has him as a top 5 running back, and rightfully so, considering that he is now the primary guy in the Jaguars backfield. Certainly, his new role will require that he gets far more than the 197 rushing attempts he got in 2008, and I think most people are assuming that he will get put up “stud-like” rushing numbers (although I’m hesitant to say that given his 4.2 average last season and the fact that he’ll probably only get 15 rushes per game). However, the real value with MJD comes in the form of his versatility. He won’t be returning punts anymore, but his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield will be utilized.

Like Forte, MJD caught 60+ passes (62). But unlike Forte, MJD just might catch more this season. First of all, the Jaguars jettisoned all of their receivers, and really he may be the best option to throw to since newcomer Torry Holt isn’t getting any younger. Also, you have to remember that last year MJD was not on the field as much as he will be this season, so he will undoubtedly be on the field for more passing plays than he was last season just by virtue of getting more playing time. And lastly, MJD has a quarterback that has no problem throwing the ball to the check-down. David Garrard is typically one of the most conservative quarterbacks in the NFL, and he will always check the ball down before he takes a risk throwing it down the field. As I mentioned with Forte, his quarterback, Cutler, is not a big check-down guy.

So I guess in the end, I have answered my own question—to some degree. It appears quite obvious to me that MJD has the better “passing value” projecting forward into this 2009 fantasy football season. However, just because we’re talking about a PPR league, doesn’t mean that rushing yards count any less. And I do believe that Matt Forte will have the better rushing numbers this season, as I projected in our 2009 fantasy football running back rankings.

So that leaves us with the question as to whether or not MJD’s passing value overcomes his paucity of rushing value?

I’m going to say yes. And I will base it one thing. I think MJD has the potential to score a lot more touchdowns this season. MJD had 12 rushing touchdowns last year, while Forte only had 8. MJD’s TD numbers could go up now that he is getting the bulk of the carries, while I don’t see much reason for Forte’s TDs to go up. Yes, the addition of Cutler will make the Bears a better offense, but I don’t see them becoming that much more prolific this season.

So, if you’re asking me, I do think that MJD has enough added value in PPR leagues to overcome what Forte produces on the ground. Thus, MJD is your #1 overall pick in PPR leagues.

Disagree? Let me know in the comments section. Beware: I will respond!

Uh, I hate projecting what defenses are going to do in fantasy football, because the truth is, we don’t really know. Most defenses appear to be something they aren’t come preseason, and by Week 3, we’re all scratching our heads as to why we didn’t foresee this weakness or that strength in a particular defense. Nonetheless, using history as our friend, I will try to give you the top 5 defenses as we approach the start of fantasy football. Let’s hope we’re not scratching our heads with these fantasy picks come mid-September.

Pittsburgh Steelers – Yeah, how can I not lead with a Super Bowl winning defense that led the league in yards allowed and points, a feat for only the best of defenses out there. They stopped the run, they stopped the pass, and if somehow you got near the end zone via special teams, they kept you knocking on the door all season long. This defense is just too fierce, and considering linebacker James Harrison should be well rested after skipping out on a White House visit, how can we not expect him to lead this defense to another stellar year in 2009? Draft the Steelers defense with supreme confidence.

New York Jets – How can you not like this defense? With new head coach Rex Ryan bringing his fierce defensive style from Baltimore, this team is apt to be the best defense in the NFL. The Jets were already a great defense last year, especially before NT Kris Jenkins was hurt for the last several weeks of the season. But they brought him some more help for the 2009 season, with LB Bart Scott, CB Lito Sheppard, and S Jim Leonard. Now the Jets have one of the best cornerback duos in the league with Sheppard and Darrelle Rivas. They also have two good safeties with Leonard and Kerr Rhodes. Not to mention, Scott and David Harris will combine to make one of the elite inside linebacking tandems in the NFL. With all of this talent, old and new, under Rex Ryan’s system, it’s scary to think about what this team might be able to do for your fantasy football team in 2009.

Philadelphia Eagles – Full disclosure, I am an Eagles fan. I know the loss of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson is big for the Eagles defense, but the man was such a great teacher of the game (see Steve Spagnuolo), that his successor is surely prepared to take over the reigns. Besides, the defensive system isn’t changing and the talent level didn’t get any worse, so it will be up to the guys on the field to execute. And don’t expect the Eagles to become any less aggressive. In fact, with Johnson no longer with us, it’s likely that a successor would be inclined to blitz more in order to keep in line with the intimidation factor Johnson liked his defenses to project. And blitzing is good when it comes to fantasy football. Sure, it can lead to some bad performances (see both Eagles games against Arizona last year), but against poor to mediocre teams, it’s an amazing feature, often leaving inferior teams with no options but to watch the clock run out.

New York Giants – Steve Spagnuolo is gone from the defense he transformed, but they, like the Eagles, shouldn’t take a huge step back. Besides, they signed a major free agent on defense this offseason. You know who I’m talking about! Osi Umenyiora! Okay, so technically, he’s not a free agent, but he didn’t play at all last year, making his return to this top 5 defense from a year ago that much more impactful. This Giants defensive line now boast Umenyiora, Rocky Benard, Mathias Kiwanuka and Justin Tuck, among others. Wow! This team is going to eat quarterbacks up this season, leaving their secondary in prime position to makes plays on balls and take picks back to the house.

Baltimore Ravens – Sure, I could pass on the Ravens because they lost Rex Ryan, but that would just be stupid. Yes, Ryan was an emotionally-charged, defensive genius, but the Ravens were the best defense ever before he got there, and they will still be a good defense now that he’s gone. They should be a lot healthier at the cornerback positions with Fabian Washington and Dominique Foxworth bringing youth and athleticism to the position. Of course, Ed Reed is back in the secondary to help them out, and Ray Lewis will continue to be dominant as long as NT Haloti Ngata and OLB Terrell Suggs are controlling the line of scrimmage. Expect this defense to continue to be stellar in 2009, and maybe even better than they were a year ago, as QB Joe Flacco’s added year of experience should keep the defense on the sideline at least a little bit more.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Player vs. Player
1. Carson Palmer vs. Denver Secondary
2. Adrian Peterson vs. D’Qwell Jackson
3. Vincent Jackson vs. Nnamdi Asomugha

Week 1 Fantasy Football – Position vs. Position
1. Quarterbacks – Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees
2. Running Backs – Steven Jackson vs. Brandon Jacobs
3. Wide Receivers – Randy Moss vs. Terrell Owens
4. Tight Ends – Greg Olsen vs. Jason Witten

Derrick Ward had quite the year for himself last year with the New York Giants, and now he is reaping the benefits of that success with big time money in Tampa Bay. But does his relocation to Florida hurt his prospects as a fantasy football option?

Right now, most draft boards have Derrick Ward ranked between 23-28 among all NFL running backs. Why so low for a guy who averaged 5.6 yards per carry, had more than 1,000 yards last year, and is now getting paid starter’s money behind a maturing offensive line on what is expected to be a run-first team in Tampa Bay?

Well, there are several reasons. First of all, while that Tampa Bay line is maturing, it isn’t quite there yet. The Buccaneers finished 15th in rushing during the 2008 season, and they only averaged 4.1 yards per rush, which was 18th in the league.

Secondly, the Buccaneers have no firm idea on what they are doing at the quarterback position. Certainly, that means they will probably run the ball more, especially with a defensive-oriented coach taking over the helm. However, if teams can load up in the box against this Buccaneers offense, the run game is truly going to struggle. Even last year, when the Bucs got a great season out of Antonio Bryant, who finished 8th in receiving yards, the team’s yards per rush still wasn’t very impressive. That leads me to believe that Derrick Ward won’t see a whole lot of 7-man fronts—especially since the lack of a definitive starting quarterback in Tampa Bay is going to limit the effectiveness of Antonio Bryant and the Bucs deep passing game.

Lastly, while Derrick Ward is getting paid starters money by the Buccaneers, that doesn’t necessarily mean he is the team’s starter. In fact, it has pretty much been established that both Ward and returning running back Earnest Graham are going to be in an open competition for carries. That being said, Ward’s contract does give him the advantage, and he probably will be the guy to get the ball early on. But that doesn’t mean that he won’t have to split carries with Earnest, thereby limiting his own production as well as his value as a top 10 or 15 running back in fantasy football. Not to mention, it’s more than likely that Graham will get the goal-line carries for the Bucs, since that is something that Ward was not accustomed to doing with the New York Giants due to the presence of running back Brandon Jacobs.

So if you were thinking that you should take a risk by drafting Ward slightly ahead of his adjusted draft position, think again. I don’t think the circumstances surrounding Ward warrant him as an underrated guy or as any kind of a sleeper pick. Of course, if Earnest Graham gets hurt in camp, or if Byron Leftwich begins to emerge as the surefire starter, then I might start to take a flier out on Ward—but not a second sooner.