Fantasy Football » Search Results » label/2009+Preseason+Rankings

2009 Fantasy Football Projections: Week 1 Sleeper Picks – Running Backs

The Sports Watchers — Mon, 07 Sep 2009 13:00:00 +0000

If you’re like me, and even if you have already had your fantasy football draft, you’re already thinking about fantasy football sleeper picks for Week 1 of the NFL season!

Well, I have a couple of picks at the running back position that not many people think will have a big Week 1. Here are my fantasy football sleeper picks for the opening week of the fantasy football season.

Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Tennessee Titans
The defending champion Steelers will be looking to pummel the Tennessee Titans after the disrespect they figure the Titans gave them by stomping on the “Terrible Towel” last season. However, that’s not why I think Willie Parker will have a big day running the ball. To put it plainly, the loss of defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth is going to negatively effect this defense greater than the pundits are saying it will. The fact is, the Titans defense was far superior at stopping the run when Haynesworth was on the field. And when he wasn’t, they were egregious. I mean, not just bad, but they had a complete reversal of fortune when it came to stopping the run sans Haynesworth. Well, the Titans are going to get a taste of what their entire defense is going to look like in 2009 in the first week of the season. Luckily for Parker, he will be the first beneficiary of a Haynesworth-less Titans defense, and he should have a big day on the ground for the Steelers. In fact, last year Parker opened up the season with a career day, scoring 3 rushing touchdowns while rushing for 138 yards. So I’d bet on the fact that Parker is a fast starter and put him in the starting lineup as a sleeper pick for Week 1 of fantasy football.

DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
It seems crazy to think that the fantasy football leader from a year ago could be a sleeper pick in Week 1 of the following season. However, a lot of mock drafts have Williams behind quarterbacks and wide receivers, so it’s not like he’s getting a ton of respect. Meanwhile, players like the oft-injured Steven Jackson and the never-done-it-before Maurice Jones-Drew are widely considered better pick ups in 2009 fantasy football drafts than last year’s point leader. Well, at least in Week 1, I’m going to put DeAngelo Williams ahead of them all. Williams is just too good not to have considerable value against an Eagles defense that has lost their middle linebacker. Don’t get me wrong, the Eagle in me believes Philly will work this out by season’s end, but in Week 1, I doubt the Eagles defense will have found its answer at the middle linebacker position. And expect Panthers coach John Fox to take advantage of that by running the ball down the throats of the Eagles front 7, and trust me, Williams will get the majority of the carries. As for those who are concerned about Jonathan Stewart stealing carries away from Williams, don’t be. You don’t come off an injury-plagued season and start stealing carries from the team’s thoroughbred, if you know what I’m saying?

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Sleeper Picks
1. Quarterback Sleeper Picks
2. Running Back Sleeper Picks
3. Wide Receiver Sleeper Picks
4. Tight Ends Sleeper Picks
5. Defensive Sleeper Picks

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Top Picks
1. Quarterback Projections
2. Running Back Projections
3. Wide Receiver Projections
4. Tight End Projections
5. Defensive Projections

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Extra Picks
1. Quarterback Fantasy Football Projections
2. Running Back Fantasy Football Projections
3. Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Projections
4. Tight End Fantasy Football Projections

Week 1 Fantasy Football Players to Watch: Steven Jackson

The Sports Watchers — Wed, 02 Sep 2009 18:27:00 +0000

As some of you know, I’m pretty high on Steven Jackson. I drafted him in 2 of my fantasy football leagues, and I do expect him to have one heck of a season in 2009. The only problem with my prediction of a big year for Steven Jackson is that nobody seems to agree with me.

Okay. Some people agree with me, to some degree. Steven Jackson appears to have gone 6th on average in fantasy football drafts. It was probably even higher before DeAngelo Williams started to climb the charts following concerns over the health of Jonathan Stewart. However, I think Jackson is much more valuable than then his 6th place ranking would suggest. To put it plainly, Jackson will have a better season than any running back in the league.

That’s right! I said it!

Some of you might think that statement contradicts both the TSW preseason running back rankings and the Top 10 rankings posted earlier this week. However, those rankings factor in perceived value. Realistically speaking, nobody but me and my crazy self thinks that Steven Jackson is going to be the best running back during the 2009 fantasy football season, and it takes a team of people to come up with those rankings.

That being said, perceived value doesn’t matter after the drafts. The only value that matters is how many points your fantasy football players are putting up on the board, and Steven Jackson is prime to score as many points as anyone else in football.

First, Steven Jackson wasn’t just good last year, game for game, he was the best running back in football, despite being dinged up for a good part of the season. In 2008, Jackson produced 1,422 yards from scrimmage in just 12 games. Extrapolate that number to cover 16 games, and the resulting figure of 1,896 yards is more yards than any running back in the NFL accumulated last season—and that was with depleted Rams offense. Not to mention, due to injury, Jackson only played in 1 quarter of one of his 12 games, which if you factor that in, Jackson’s extrapolated number goes over 2,000 yards, something he has done before in his career.

Of course, a lot of you are worried about Jackson’s team, the St. Louis Rams, and it’s ability to score points. I know; yards or nice, but in fantasy football points come in bulk with touchdowns. The Rams did only score 8 rushing touchdowns in 2008, but a lot of that was the result of their schedule. The Rams had to play the NFC East, and needless to say, they didn’t fair too well against those teams. They also played the AFC East, which had 3 teams with 9 wins or more and all four teams had reputable defenses. And one of the team’s other two non-divisional games came against a solid Bears defense. So at the end of the day, this team never really had a chance to gel as an offense. In facing superior teams, dealing with injuries to both Jackson and Marc Bulger, and having the most injured offensive line in football last year, the Rams offense shouldn’t have been good. But this year, everyone should enter Week 1 of fantasy football healthy, and they have an easier schedule than the AFC East and NFC East. So their scoring should improve significantly 2009.

And speaking of the schedule, have you seen how the Rams finish the season? Steven Jackson could flirt with history during the final 8 weeks of the fantasy football season. During the final 8 weeks of the season, Jackson will see the defenses of the Detroit Lions, the New Orleans Saints, the Arizona Cardinals twice, the Seattle Seahawks, a Chicago Bears defense that isn’t nearly as good as it was last year, the Houston Texans, the Tennessee Titans and the San Francisco 49ers. The only one of those defenses that scares me is Houston, which was a top 5 defense during the final 5 weeks of the season. The Titans rush defense won’t be nearly as good as it was last year now that Albert Haynesworth is with the Washington Redskins. And the Bears defense won’t be the same now that Tommie Harris has to virtually play the rest of his career on one leg. I almost gush when I say this, but Steven Jackson is going to tear the league up during the second half of the year. (And he should get off to a good start in Week 1)

So those reasons, and more, are why I believe Steven Jackson will be the best running back in all of fantasy football during the 2009 NFL season. People who are concerned with Jackson’s injuries over the last 2 years need to worry no longer. He ended the season with 62 carries for 269 yards and has never looked better. So sleep on Steven Jackson if you want to, but I’m scooping him up in every league I can, because once again, on the per-game basis, there wasn’t a more productive running back in football in 2008.

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Top Picks
1. Quarterback Projections
2. Running Back Projections
3. Wide Receiver Projections
4. Tight End Projections
5. Defensive Projections

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Sleeper Picks
1. Quarterback Sleeper Picks
2. Running Back Sleeper Picks
3. Wide Receiver Sleeper Picks
4. Tight Ends Sleeper Picks
5. Defensive Sleeper Picks

Week 1 Fantasy Football Projections – Duds
1. Quarterback Duds
2. Running back Duds
3. Wide Receiver Duds

Fantasy Football Week 1 – Buy or Sell
1. Quarterbacks: Buy Garrard, Sell Favre

The 2009 Fantasy Football Top 10 Players

The Sports Watchers — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 21:50:00 +0000

As you may have heard on my first Fantasy Football Podcast of the season, my 2009 Fantasy Football Top 10 is now available.

Of course, I have already given you the top 10 players at the quarterback, running back and wide receiver positions. I have also given you the top players at the tight end position.

I have not given you my top selections for defenses or kickers, because in reality, I don’t think you should draft either until the final two rounds of your fantasy football draft.

With that said, here is the overall top 10, let me know if you disagree!

1. Adrian Peterson, Running Back: Adrian Peterson shouldn’t just be the first running back off the board, he should be the first player off it as well. Forget about all of the questions concerning injuries, fumbles, durability, shared time and lack of a consistent quarterback (Brett Favre included), the fact is, Peterson gets it done—now matter what! Much like a young LaDainian Tomlinson, Peterson is willing to run through a brick wall, so defenses can stack the box all the want, but Peterson is going to get his yards one way or another. Read More…

2. Matt Forte, Running Back: Say what you will about Matt Forte, but don’t last season a fluke. Forte wasn’t only a top performer last year, but he enters the 2009 season as the second-best running back, and one of the surest things in football. Sure, I’m a little weary as to how the Chicago Bears will use him this season, but barring a big offensive change or some freak injury, I don’t see how Forte won’t be successful during the 2009 fantasy football season. Read More…

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Running Back: I am little hesitant to put this much faith in a running back who has never had 200 carries before, but something tells me MJD will make it work. Personally, I’m not going to draft him, but that doesn’t mean that I disagree with his high position in drafts. Should everything go according to plan, MJD will be the 3rd best back in all of football, and if you don’t have the concerns I have about Jones-Drew’s ability to carry the load, then have no fear drafting him 3rd overall. Read More…

4. Michael Turner, Running Back: That’s right, Michael Turner isn’t that high on my board. Call me a believer in the 370-carry curse. I am fully aware that the 370-carry rule doesn’t work when you apply it to 365 or 360, which makes it kind of an anomaly, but time and time again, when tested, running backs fall flat on their face after 370-carry seasons. That said, this Falcons offense won’t allow that 370-curse to affect him too much. Thus, Turner should have a very good season, and 4th overall production is nothing to sneeze at. Read More…

5. Steven Jackson, Running Back: Steven Jackson is my sleeper pick of the bunch. Yes, I have him ranked #5 as many other sites did, but I’m willing to draft Jackson as high as 2nd overall, because in my opinion, he is headed for a very big season. Here is a guy who everyone is practically writing off as an elite back, but when healthy last season, he was the most productive player in football. In 2008 Jackson led all of fantasy football yards from scrimmage per game, and I don’t see why he can’t do that again in 2009—only without the missed games and whatnot. Read More…

6. LaDainian Tomlinson, Running Back: LT is not done quite yet. In fact, I could be underestimating LT. Let’s admit what everyone else isn’t, Tomlinson was hurt for a good part of last season. Sure, some of that comes with age, but do we really think he has fallen off so drastically from the heights he attained in 2007? I doubt it. As long as LT is healthy, he is going to be an elite running back in fantasy football, and the 2009 season should be no different. Read More…

7. DeAngelo Williams, Running Back: I will try not to gloat as the pack slowly comes back to me. Everyone was running away from DeAngelo Williams in fear that Jonathan Stewart was going to steal all of his carries and touchdowns at the drop of a dime. Well, I didn’t believe that for second, and I got a little help from history, too. It is being reported that Stewart has some undisclosed injury concerns right now, and if that is the case, expect the Panthers to stick by the guy who scored 18 rushing touchdowns for them a season ago. Read More…

8. Frank Gore, Running Back: The 49ers really have no one else. Their receiving core isn’t scary. Their defense isn’t great. And their quarterback is some guy most people hadn’t heard of until last year. Thus, what options do the 49ers have but to hand the ball off to Gore and hope for the best? That’s why head coach Mike Singletary fired Mike Martz and brought in a new offensive system designed around the run. Here’s to hoping it works, for my fantasy sake and yours. Read More…

9. Andre Johnson, Wide Receiver: I’m not a big fan of wide receivers in the first round, but I actually did the analysis and saw that drafting a wide receiver of Andre Johnson’s caliber is actually a better decision than drafting the 8th or 9th best running back. Running back just isn’t that deep this year, and let’s face it, Andre Johnson is a beast. Read More…

10. Drew Brees, Quarterback: Here I have another non-running back, and it’s also a controversial choice for its position. While I think Tom Brady will bounce back from his injury this season, I don’t think he will start fast. Brady will have a roller coaster first couple of weeks, as opposed to Drew Brees, who will have a monstrous season from the word go. Those 2 reasons suggest to me that Brees isn’t only the safer pick, but he’s the more prolific pick, too. Read More…

TSW 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Running Backs
10. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans (7/6/09, 9AM)
09. Brandon Jacobs, New York Giants (7/6/09, 4PM)
08. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (7/7/09, 9AM)
07. Deangelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (7/7/09, 4PM)
06. LaDainian Tomlison, San Diego Chargers (7/8/09, 9AM)
05. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams (7/8/09, 4PM)
04. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons (7/9/09, 9AM)
03. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (7/9/09, 4PM)
02. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (7/10/09, 9AM)
01. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (7/10/09, 12PM)

TSW 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Quarterbacks
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
3. Peyton Manning, New England Patriots
4. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals
5. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
7. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles
8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks
9. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

TSW 2009 Fantasy Football Rankings – Wide Receivers
1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (8/3/09)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (8/1/09)
3. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (7/31/09)
4. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (7/30/09)
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (7/29/09)
6. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (7/28/09)
7. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills (7/27/09)
8. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (7/24/09)
9. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (7/23/09)
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (7/22/09)
11. Not Top Wide Receivers (7/21/09)

Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections:
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Quarterbacks
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Running Backs
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Wide Receivers
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Tight Ends
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Defenses

2009 Fantasy Football Projections: Arizona Cardinals

The Sports Watchers — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 22:14:00 +0000

So your favorite team is the Arizona Cardinals and you’re wondering how many Cardinals players are worthy of drafting to your 2009 fantasy football team…

While having too many players from one team isn’t great, having all of your favorite players spread across several leagues is okay. Here are the 2009 fantasy football projections for the Arizona Cardinals as a whole.

Kurt Warner, Quarterback
Warner is an easy one. He will probably lead the team in fantasy football points, since he has the benefit of being able to throw the ball to 3 amazing wide receivers, all the while standing behind a decent pass blocking offensive line. You just have to hope that Warner doesn’t get injured. He’s approaching 40, and football players of his ilk often find it hard to make it through an entire 16-game season—then again, there is Brett Favre.

Larry Fitzgerald, Wide Receiver
While Warner might be the most productive fantasy football option on the Cardinals, Fitzgerald is the most valuable. What he can do for your fantasy football team is immeasurable compared to what wide receivers outside of the top 4 or 5 can give you. Fitzgerald has the ability to turn a jump ball into breakaway score, and a big hit into a big touchdown. Fitzgerald is going high in drafts—first round high—so if you want him, you will have to pay a price.

Anquan Boldin, Wide Receiver
Fitzgerald is getting drafted in the first round, but Anquan Boldin is getting passed up left and right. I’m not sure why that is, because before Anquan went down with that devastating injury, Boldin had scored more fantasy points than Fitzgerald. Assuming Boldin is healthy and ready to play, I don’t see why he won’t be the best wide receiver for the Cardinals in 2009. Boldin is going to catch more touchdown passes, and he gets all of the passes over the short-middle of the field. So if you really want an elite fantasy wide receiver without paying an “elite” price, draft Boldin later in the draft.

Steve Breaston, Wide Receiver
Yes, the Cardinals are just about the only team in the National Football League that has 3 wide receivers worthy of selecting in fantasy football. Breaston was a beast when Boldin was out of the lineup, and even when he came back, Breaston continued to produce. Breaston is a great intermediate route runner for the Cards, and he has a tremendous ability for getting open on the sidelines. He will not catch a whole lot of touchdowns, because most of the red zone passes will be intended for Boldin, but he will give you a lot of yards, maybe even breaking the 1,000-yard mark for the second year in a row.

Chris “Beanie” Wells, Running Back
Sure, I’m not a big fan of Beanie Wells because of his history of injuries, but if he is healthy, he can be a serviceable solution at the running back position. Granted, the Cardinals offensive isn’t great, they don’t have a viable fullback, and no team passed the ball at a higher clip than the Cardinals did last year, but if you really like Wells, I guess YOU can take a chance on him.

Tim Hightower, Running Back
While Wells is getting all of the pub, the fact is, Hightower appears to be the front runner for the starting running back job in Arizona. Still don’t expect much from him yardage wise, but he could become a fantasy football touchdown machine in the red zone, where the high-powered Cardinals offense is sure to be many times this season.

Other Wide Receiver Rankings
1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (8/3/09)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (8/1/09)
3. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (7/31/09)
4. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (7/30/09)
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (7/29/09)
6. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (7/28/09)
7. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills (7/27/09)
8. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (7/24/09)
9. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (7/23/09)
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (7/22/09)
11. Not Top Wide Receivers (7/21/09)

More Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections:
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Quarterbacks
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Running Backs
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Wide Receivers
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Tight Ends
Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections: Defenses

TSW Preseason Fantasy Football Rankings – Quarterbacks
1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
2. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
3. Peyton Manning, New England Patriots
4. Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals
5. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
6. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
7. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles
8. Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks
9. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Fantasy Football Projections: The Fall of Brandon Marshall

The Sports Watchers — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 19:10:00 +0000

How does a guy go from potentially being one of the 5 best wide receivers in football to maybe not even ranking ahead of Wes Welker in fantasy value?

Just ask Denver Broncos wide receiver Brandon Marshall.

Wide receiver Brandon Marshall was amazing last year. Despite missing the first game of the 2008 season due to an NFL mandated suspension, Marshall led the NFL in targets and caught 104 passes from former then Denver Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler. But it doesn’t look as if he’ll be ranking among the best fantasy football wide receivers in 2009.

While Marshall is a top-tier wide receiver in terms of talent, he lacks the supporting cast of quality players to reproduce the types of numbers he had just a season ago. Cutler left for the Chicago Bears, leaving Marshall with a couple of fantasy football duds at quarterback, including Kyle Orton behind center and Chris Simms backing him up. At running back, the Broncos continue to have issues, so it’s highly unlikely that the rushing game will take any heat off of Marshall. And the coaching staff led by Josh McDaniels may be fired before we even get to Week 7 of the fantasy football season.

Yes, it’s that crazy in Denver.

What does all of this mean for Brandon Marshall’s fantasy football projections?

Less production.

Marshall won’t catch 104 balls this season. He’ll be lucky if he gets 75. Randy Moss was the main guy in McDaniels’ 2008 Patriots offense, and he caught just 69 passes—and as McDaniel has made quite clear, neither Kyle Orton or Jay Cutler is “as good” as Matt Cassel.

Brandon Marshall won’t amass last year’s receiving total1,265 yards either. Moss barely broke 1,000 yards in McDaniels’ offense last year, and that was in Moss’s second year of the system. Once again, I recognize they had Cassel instead of Tom Brady; but once again, we know how much McDaniels loved Cassel.

And Brandon Marshall probably won’t even get the mere 6 touchdowns he scored last year. Whilst Moss caught 11 TDs in 2008, his offense was better, with a better offensive line, and he had a defense that got the Patriots the ball more often than the Broncos defense will. And did I mention he had had Matt Cassel?

Yes, Brandon Marshall’s fantasy football value, and perhaps his future NFL earnings, has been diminished all because Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels, a rookie coach, jeopardized the entire structure of his team’s personnel, because he was in love with a quarterback that started playing for the first in half-a-decade. How anyone can be mad at Marshall for wanting out of there is beyond me, but drafting him to your fantasy football team would be even more outlandish.

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings
1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (8/3/09)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (8/1/09)
3. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (7/31/09)
4. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (7/30/09)
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (7/29/09)
6. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (7/28/09)
7. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills (7/27/09)
8. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (7/24/09)
9. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (7/23/09)
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (7/22/09)
11. Not Top Wide Receivers (7/21/09)

Fantasy Football Projections: Why I’m Down on Calvin Johnson

The Sports Watchers — Fri, 21 Aug 2009 18:30:00 +0000

I have been a getting a lot of pushback for leaving Calvin Johnson off my 2009 Fantasy Football Top 10 Wide Receiver Rankings. As I explained in my “Not Top 10,” it is nothing against Calvin Johnson’s ability, I just don’t believe in his Detroit Lions teammates.

At some point this season, after Daunte Culpepper has taken a licking, Matthew Stafford is going to become the starting quarterback for the Detroit Lions. While a lot of people have high hopes for Stafford in his first year, I just can’t be a believer. There is absolutely no way that Stafford will have a positive effect on Johnson’s numbers or my fantasy football projection for those numbers.

I understand that Calvin Johnson amassed 78 catches, for 1,331 yards and a league-leading (tied) 12 touchdown catches. Although that’s very impressive, I would argue that it’s too impressive. What Johnson did with virtually no one of substance playing quarterback for the Lions throughout 2008 is amazing! In my mind, it borders on Tom-Brady-50-touchdowns-impressive, because I’ve never seen a wide receiver dominate like that when no one else on his team was worth a nickel of salary cap space.

With his 2008 season seeming so impressive to me, how can I really expect him to do that again, especially when a rookie quarterback will be throwing him the ball for a good portion of the season?

If Daunte Culpepper were to play the entire season, perhaps I would move Johnson into the top 10 wide receiver rankings, but that’s not going to happen. And that’s a shame for Calvin Johnson, because with offensive coordinator Scott Linehan and Culpepper hooking up, who knows what kind of fire could be reignited between the former Minnesota Vikings?

But that fire, however big it may get, will be extinguished at some point during the 2009 fantasy football season, and so will Johnson’s fantasy projections. Stafford may be smart and talented, but he’s not exactly the best quarterback we have ever seen coming out of college. In fact, it’s safe to say that in 5 of the last 6 NFL Drafts, each of the quarterbacks taken first among other quarterbacks would have been drafted ahead of Stafford. Not to say he won’t be a good quarterback in the NFL, but to expect him to perform at a level far exceeding that of the average rookie quarterback would be foolish.

And getting away from the play of the quarterback, how about the fact that Linehan likes to spread the ball around? He likes having multiple options and spreading the field. That’s not to say he won’t make an effort to get Johnson the ball, but he won’t do it to the complete detriment of his system, and a big reason for Johnson’s 2008 numbers was the fact that he was targeted 33.4% of the time last year—the 3rd highest such percentage in the NFL last year.

So draft Johnson among the top 10 wide receivers if you want to, it’ll just push someone more valuable into a “steal” position in your fantasy draft. But even as I recognize that I could be completely wrong about my projection of Calvin Johnson’s fantasy football value, betting on the Lions to fail is probably the safest bet in football this year.

2009 Fantasy Football Sleeper Picks: Brent Celek, Tight End

The Sports Watchers — Thu, 20 Aug 2009 19:23:00 +0000

There are a lot of mistakes that even the best fantasy football players make year after year. Sometimes you don’t draft a viable backup quarterback. Maybe you got two running backs with the same bye week. Or perhaps you bid way too much to get Adrian Peterson in your auction draft.

Well, if you keep your eye out for this fantasy football sleeper pick, perhaps you won’t make the yearly mistake of getting 0 production out of your tight end position.

Since I started playing fantasy football in 1997, I have rarely been a part of a season where there were more than 3 or 4 viable tight ends in the league that could give you consistent week to week production. The 2009 fantasy football season is no different. We know we’ll get production from Jason Witten, Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark, but every other tight end is either on a new team, has a new quarter back or lost their quarterback from the year before.

Well, there is one other tight end that produced last year and is entering the 2009 fantasy football season with everything he had in place at the end of the year. That guy is Brent Celek of the Philadelphia Eagles, and he is my newest fantasy football projection as a sleeper pick for the 2009 season.

Celek didn’t have the best 2008 ever. He started off as the backup to L.J. Smith, so right there, that eliminated a lot of the production he could have had. But once Celek started to assume a starter’s role in the Eagles offense, the man was on fire.

In a season where he was mostly a backup, Celek had 3 catches in 8 different games last year, including the playoffs, where he was 3 for 3. In fact, in the NFC Championship game, Celek caught 10 passes for 83 yards, seemingly developing chemistry with Donovan McNabb right before our eyes.

Now that Brent Celek is the starter, we know he has the potential to thrive in this West Coast offense. Yes, the Eagles have some more weapons at wide receiver, and both DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis will be used. However, long before those two, and before many of the other wide receivers that came in and out of Donovan McNabb’s life in Philadelphia, there was Chad Lewis. For many a season, Lewis was the best receiver on the Eagles, and he was the most looked after target of the McNabb. In Andy Reid’s offense, the tight end is the quarterback’s best friend, and if McNabb and Celek do have this rapport, expect Celek’s numbers to climb.

Now, I’m not saying go out with the intention of making Celek your #1 tight end pick, because you certainly don’t want to pass up on some steals with greater potential this season. However, Celek has a lot of value going forward, and there’s a good chance that his 2008 numbers (38 catches, 347 yards in 10 starts) will get better as the season goes along. Besides, Celek isn’t going among the top 10 tight ends in the league, so will have plenty of opportunity to draft him, just make sure you keep him in sleeper pick range and don’t overreach for him.

Fantasy Football Librarian: Average Draft Rankings Analysis

The Sports Watchers — Wed, 19 Aug 2009 14:30:00 +0000

Interested in the World Wide Web’s opinion of fantasy football rankings for the upcoming 2009 NFL season?

Well, the Fantasy Football Librarian has just hooked you up!

On her site, the FFL provides you with an average of the top 100 players in fantasy football rankings from the internet’s most visited websites.

You can check it out at fflibrarian.com.

As for my analysis of the top 10 Average Draft Rankings (ADR) across all major fantasy football websites (as determined by FFL), let’s take a look:

1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings (ADR: 1.10) – Let me just note, that as I write this, Brett Favre has reportedly signed with the Minnesota Vikings. That means many more running lanes for Peterson, because no longer can teams put an 8th man in the box without fear of being burned by one of the most prolific quarterbacks in the history of the game. So if you ask me, Peterson’s AR may get even closer to the #1.

2. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons (ADR: 2.90) – You all know how I feel about Michael Turner. He carried the ball 370 times last year. History tells us that any running back that got that many carries the year before doesn’t fair well as a fantasy football option the next season. Could Turner be the exception? I highly doubt it; especially since that was the first time in his life that he has ever carried that ball that much. So in all likelihood, I think Michael “The Burner” Tuner will be a little bit burned out during the 2009 fantasy football season. He’s still a top 10 pick, but not #2 in my fantasy football projections.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADR: 3.20) – Everyone likes MJD, including myself. However, even I am beginning to becoming a little skeptical since he has never carried the entire load for a rushing attack before. Then again, the guy we just talked about, Michael Turner, was the same way last year, and he did just fine. So I’m assuming that even if MJD can’t quite handle getting all of the carries, his versatility in the passing game should be enough compensation to keep him among the elite fantasy running backs.

4. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears (ADR: 3.90) – There is a 0.7 AR drop from MJD to Forte, which tells me that people are really down on Forte this season in comparison to MJD. I’m not sure why seeing as how Forte has a better quarterback and is going to be a more developed running back in his second year. That’s why I have Forte ranked as the second best running back in fantasy football, but it seems like a lot of people disagree with me.

5. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams (ADR: 6.00) – This is the biggest jump in AR thus far, meaning there is a clear divide between the top 4 running backs in fantasy football and the rest of the league. However, Jackson is a great pick up this season. Assuming he’s healthy, his offensive line should be much improved, and his quarterback, although hurt at the moment, should be in for a solid season. Not to mention, he plays in the NFC West, which is completely devoid of defense. And you can’t forget that this man led the league in yards from scrimmage per game last season; so when’s healthy, he’s the most productive back in fantasy football.

6. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (ADR: 6.50) – This is very interesting to me, because a lot of sites rank Williams quite low, and ESPN Mock Drafts have Williams going 9th or 10th in their leagues. A lot of this is based on the idea that Jonathan Stewart is going to steal a lot of carries from Williams this season, but I highly doubt that’s the case.

7. LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers (ADR: 8.60) – Here we have another big drop off in AR. Most of it has to be because people think LT is done and because Darren Sproles is expected to get a lot of carries this season. Well, reports are that LT looks very good in camp, and if he’s healthy, I don’t see how Coach Norv Turner can take him out of the game too often. But beware! Turner might try to save LT if the Chargers wrap up the AFC West early, because LT hasn’t been healthy in postseason for quite some time now.

8. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans (ADR: 8.90) – My problem with this high of a ranking for Chris Johnson has nothing to do with him. If he were the sole feature back in Tennessee, perhaps I’d believe he is worth being a top 10 pick, but he’s not. He shares the rock, and most importantly, he shares the touchdown carries with LenDale White. And why would I want a running back that is going to only going to get a limited number of his own team’s touchdown carries? Sorry, but I’ll pass on Johnson in the first round.

9. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (ADR: 9.50) – I don’t like having wide receivers in the top 10, especially when I don’t agree that this particular wide receiver will produce the most fantasy football points in 2009. That said, if you read my analysis on drafting wide receivers in the first round, you’ll see that Larry Fitzgerald is a good value pick at the 10th spot in the draft. Anything higher than that, however, is ridiculous.

10. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers (ADR: 10.30) – I understand Frank Gore at this position. We know what he can do. We know that the 49ers are going to run the ball a lot. And we expect the team to be a lot better with Shaun Hill running the show, should he win the starting job. And did I mention that Gore plays in the NFC West?

Wide Receiver Rankings
1. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans (8/3/09)
2. Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals (8/1/09)
3. Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers (7/31/09)
4. Randy Moss, New England Patriots (7/30/09)
5. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts (7/29/09)
6. Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons (7/28/09)
7. Terrell Owens, Buffalo Bills (7/27/09)
8. Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals (7/24/09)
9. Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers (7/23/09)
10. Wes Welker, New England Patriots (7/22/09)
11. Not Top Wide Receivers (7/21/09)

Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Tom Brady or Drew Brees?

The Sports Watchers — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 20:08:00 +0000

Despite what I have said, the people have spoken. I ranked Drew Brees as the #1 quarterback in fantasy football in my 2009 preseason quarterback rankings. I then preceded to rank Tom Brady as the #5 quarterback in my ratings, due to his likely knee issues in returning to the field.

However, while many agree with me on Brees (Average Draft Position of 10th overall), the entire world is scoffing at the notion that Brady won’t be a top 2 quarterback during the 2009 fantasy football season (ADP: 12th overall).

Well, I scoff back!

Certainly, I will admit to the fact that my fantasy football rankings are somewhat based on having some certainty in your pick (ehemm, safe). And I think it’s quite clear that Brady will struggle, to some degree, with his surgically repaired knee and essentially not having played a full game of football since February 2008. Now, some may argue as to just how much Brady will struggle, but if that potential is there, I’m not sure why anyone would gamble on Brady with the likes of Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Kurt Warner available for the taking.

I don’t want to hear this mess about how Brady has had 9 months to recover, which is far more than some of the other quarterbacks who have had similar injuries (i.e. Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper). Truth is, he really hasn’t had that much more time than them. McNabb went down in Week 10, while Culpepper went down in Week 8. That means that Brady had 7 to 9 more weeks then those two to get recover; however, he had his surgery late, and those two didn’t have the kind of setbacks that Brady had. Thus, I would argue that McNabb and Culpepper had just as much time to recover as Brady had.

And even if you want to give Brady credit for more recovery time, I don’t think that’s the issue. Fact is, neither Brady, nor McNabb, nor Palmer nor Culpepper would have played had they not been physically able to do so. As a result, I’m not talking about Brady’s physical condition; I’m talking about his mental condition.

I don’t think Tom Brady is ready to step up in the pocket, feel the heat of the rush, get a game-speed rhythm with his receivers, or adapt to crazy defenses. Not to say that it isn’t all there for Brady, because he can and will be able to do those things again, and I’m sure we’ll see flashes of it in preseason. Nevertheless, when you’re away from the game so long, and you’re returning from such a devastating injury, most players, especially quarterbacks, have a difficult time getting reacclimated to the game. It’s natural. It doesn’t make Brady any less of a quarterback, it just means that he will need time to get back to being the Brady of old.

With all that said, at worst, Brady goes for 25 touchdowns, and at best, maybe he eclipses 40. So if you’re a Favre-like riverboat gambler, then go with Tom Brady. But you know Drew Brees is going to get you 32+ touchdowns and 4,500 yards—at minimum! And while his upside may not be as high as Brady’s (emphasis on the word “may”), by all fantasy football projections and estimations, he is the safer bet for the 2009 fantasy football season. And if you’re drafting a quarterback in the first round, which is just about where Brady and Brees’s ADP numbers are, then don’t you want the sure thing?

Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Which Running Back Do You Take First in a PPR League?

The Sports Watchers — Wed, 05 Aug 2009 13:08:00 +0000

So the question of the moment is, does the number one pick in fantasy football change if you’re in points per reception league? And if so, who then becomes the #1 overall pick in PPR leagues?

Well, first of all, yes. The #1 pick does change in PPR leagues. I do not think that Adrian Peterson is the #1 overall pick in fantasy football if points are being allotted for catching passes. The fact is, Adrian Peterson only caught 21 passes last season (and 40 for his career), and with the ongoing problems at the quarterback position in Minnesota, I wouldn’t count on him catching more than 1 pass a game during the 2009 fantasy football season. So while I hate to say it, Adrian Peterson probably drops down to the 3rd best running back in fantasy football in PPR leagues.

So which running back takes over as the projected #1 overall pick in fantasy football? Well, to be truthful, I’m not so sure. But I do have it narrowed down to the top 2.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
Forte becomes an obvious option, because the Bears offense was so dependent on him last season. Not only did Forte go over 300 rushing attempts (in his rookie year!), but he also had 63 receptions. So in a PPR leagues where 1 point is given for each catch, that’s 63 extra points for Forte.

However, the caveat is that Forte might not be relied upon in the passing game that much this season. With the insertion of quarterback Jay Cutler into the Bears offense, the team now has a quarterback that is more capable of getting the ball down the field. In fact, I don’t mind saying that Cutler is the type of quarterback that is more apt to throw it down field than check it off to the running back, even when maybe he should do the latter. But Cutler’s decision-making aside, the offense as a whole will be more inclined to the get the ball down the sidelines and over the middle of the field to Greg Olsen. As a result, I don’t think the Bears will rely on Forte’s pass-catching ability as much in 2009.

So how many catches are we talking about here? If I have to guess, I would say about 45 catches for Forte this season. Like I said, there’s no way he’s getting the 63 from a year ago, but I think 45 is a safe number.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Maurice Jones-Drew (MJD) is the sexy pick of the 2009 fantasy football season. Every fantasy football projection in the world has him as a top 5 running back, and rightfully so, considering that he is now the primary guy in the Jaguars backfield. Certainly, his new role will require that he gets far more than the 197 rushing attempts he got in 2008, and I think most people are assuming that he will get put up “stud-like” rushing numbers (although I’m hesitant to say that given his 4.2 average last season and the fact that he’ll probably only get 15 rushes per game). However, the real value with MJD comes in the form of his versatility. He won’t be returning punts anymore, but his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield will be utilized.

Like Forte, MJD caught 60+ passes (62). But unlike Forte, MJD just might catch more this season. First of all, the Jaguars jettisoned all of their receivers, and really he may be the best option to throw to since newcomer Torry Holt isn’t getting any younger. Also, you have to remember that last year MJD was not on the field as much as he will be this season, so he will undoubtedly be on the field for more passing plays than he was last season just by virtue of getting more playing time. And lastly, MJD has a quarterback that has no problem throwing the ball to the check-down. David Garrard is typically one of the most conservative quarterbacks in the NFL, and he will always check the ball down before he takes a risk throwing it down the field. As I mentioned with Forte, his quarterback, Cutler, is not a big check-down guy.

So I guess in the end, I have answered my own question—to some degree. It appears quite obvious to me that MJD has the better “passing value” projecting forward into this 2009 fantasy football season. However, just because we’re talking about a PPR league, doesn’t mean that rushing yards count any less. And I do believe that Matt Forte will have the better rushing numbers this season, as I projected in our 2009 fantasy football running back rankings.

So that leaves us with the question as to whether or not MJD’s passing value overcomes his paucity of rushing value?

I’m going to say yes. And I will base it one thing. I think MJD has the potential to score a lot more touchdowns this season. MJD had 12 rushing touchdowns last year, while Forte only had 8. MJD’s TD numbers could go up now that he is getting the bulk of the carries, while I don’t see much reason for Forte’s TDs to go up. Yes, the addition of Cutler will make the Bears a better offense, but I don’t see them becoming that much more prolific this season.

So, if you’re asking me, I do think that MJD has enough added value in PPR leagues to overcome what Forte produces on the ground. Thus, MJD is your #1 overall pick in PPR leagues.

Disagree? Let me know in the comments section. Beware: I will respond!

Players to Watch: Andre Johnson

The Sports Watchers — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 20:00:00 +0000

Many people are up in arms about my decision to rank the Houston Texans Andre Johnson above Larry Fitzgerald in this year’s preseason wide receiver rankings. Look, I’m not saying Johnson is the better receiver (although I might feel that way), I’m just saying when it comes to putting up fantasy football points in 2009, Johnson is my guy—and he should be yours too!

Andre Johnson has everything going for him. He has a great quarterback in Matt Schaub. Yes, he has been known to go down with an injury or two every season, but when the man is in the game, he and Johnson combine for all kinds of crazy yardage. Schaub has an uncanny knack for reading defenses and getting the ball down the field. And because of those two aspects, it makes it impossible for any cornerback to cover Johnson, especially over the middle, because Schaub has no problem putting the ball in a position where Johnson can use his superior size and strength against NFL cornerbacks.

One of the best things going for Andre Johnson is the fact that he has a complimentary receiver to go with him. Sleep on Kevin Walter if you want to, but over the last two years, Walter has combined for 125 catches and nearly 1,700 yards, those are not bad numbers by any means—especially a distant-second option. Because of Walter’s ability, teams are forced to respect his talent to some degree, thereby giving Johnson more opportunities to work out of single coverage than most wide receivers of his caliber would have the chance to.

The emerging running game of the Houston Texans is also beneficial to Andre Johnson’s fantasy football prospects this season. With Steve Slaton providing an instant rushing game to the Texans offense last year, teams had to put more people in the box. Slaton proved to be too explosive and too fast not to do so. And to top it off, it appears as if Johnson has some of his best games even when Slaton is controlling the game on the ground. From weeks 11 through 17, when Slaton was on fire, Andre Johnson still managed to put up 4 games over 75 yards, including a 207-yard game, and he only had 1 game with less than 50 yards during that stretch. And maybe this is a knock on Steve Slaton, but since he’s not the biggest running back in the world, the Texans are still likely to pass the ball when inside the 5-yard line, thereby giving Andre Johnson even more attempts to score touchdowns.

With all that said, one of the best reasons to like Andre Johnson this season is the fact that he will face very bad defensive cornerbacks. ESPN ran the numbers, and of all the wide receivers in the NFL, Andre Johnson has the most favorable matchups all-season long. They came up with that by using the average yards per pass that each cornerback gave up last season and then used a point system to grade each cornerback. The 16 cornerbacks that Johnson is likely to face this season combine for the lowest point total, giving him the most yard-sacrificing corners in the league. However, in Fitzgerald’s defense, his competition during the 2009 fantasy football season is the second easiest.

All that said, and going back to what I hinted at to begin this piece, I do think Andre Johnson is the best wide receiver in football. Let’s not let a postseason in which Johnson didn’t participate in knock him out of the running, because what he did last year, leading the league in catches and yards (without his quarterback for several games) is no small feat, and it shouldn’t be disregarded. Now with Johnson going into a year with a proven running game, a complimentary receiver, what is hopefully a healthy Matt Schaub, and the easiest cornerback schedule in the league, it’s hard not to rank last year’s reception and yards champion as the #1 wide receive in all of fantasy football.

2009 Fantasy Football Preseason Rankings: Tight Ends

The Sports Watchers — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 17:00:00 +0000

As a fantasy football participant knows, tight ends are at a premium. But in 2009, it appears as if we have more viable options than ever before.

So who’s the cream of the crop?

Here are my top 5 tight ends entering the 2009 fantasy football season:

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys – If you ask me, there is no better tight end in football right now, and with Terrell Owens gone, Jason Witten’s fantasy football numbers should only improve in 2009. Last year wasn’t the greatest year for Wittten, but he still had a stellar season in comparison to all tight ends. In ’08, he finished second in receiving yards among tight ends, and he was second in targets. Of course, his numbers would have been even better if Tony Romo had not been out for 3 games, and if T.O. hadn’t accused him and Romo of conducting a conspiracy not to throw him the ball. Now in 2009, an Owens-less Cowboys offense should mean even more targets for Witten, but more importantly, Witten should see more red zone targets, which has been the lone bad spot in his career. All and all though, I don’t see any reason why Witten won’t put up the best tight end numbers in the game this year. For some odd reason, a lot of people have Tony Gonzalez as the #1 tight end in their preseason rankings, but I just don’t see it happening in that Atlanta Falcons run-first offense.

Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts – The biggest beneficiary of Marvin Harrison’s absence won’t be Reggie Wayne or Anthony Gonzalez. Instead, the loss of Harrison will see Dallas Clark’s importance to the offense increase threefold. Clark is extremely reliable, knows every bit of this Indianapolis Colts offense, and he can line up in the slot to get the best matchups available. Expect a huge increase in targets for this man, as he becomes the #2 guy in the offense. And don’t worry about his low touchdown total from 2008, as Clark’s season career high in receptions, yards and targets last year more than made up for that. Besides, the Colts running game looks like it might not be a go-to option in the red zone this fall.

Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers – Generally speaking, I would have Gates at the top of this list, but injuries have significantly hurt this man’s fantasy football value, and now I’m a little bit weary of ranking him this high. Last time we saw him, Gates was hobbling around the field in the playoffs, seemingly of no use to his team or his fantasy football owners during the last few weeks of the regular season. And it’s hard to automatically assume that he will be healthy coming into this year after an entire 2008 in which he was very inefficient and very unproductive. Nonetheless, I rank Gates #3 on my list just because of the potential upside. If the man is healthy, he will put up numbers. And even if it’s not that healthy, he can still have decent numbers as he did in 2008, when he scored 8 touchdowns, which was good enough to rank 2nd among all tight ends. So if you want Gates, you’re hedging your bets, but considering just how good he is, the floor on this guy, hopefully, isn’t that low.

Greg Olsen, Chicago Bears – The biggest beneficiary of Jay Cutler’s arrival in Chicago has to be Greg Olsen. He is by far the best receiving option on the Chicago Bears, as wide receiver Devin Hester just doesn’t cut it as a “#1” guy in the passing game. However, Olsen is your prototypical pass-catching tight end. He has the ability to run past linebackers, line up in the slot, and run down the sidelines like a wide receiver. Seriously, the man has Antonio Gates-like versatility, and now that he has a quarterback who can consistently get him the ball, expect that versatility to be exploited in 2009.

Owen Daniels, Houston Texans – At #5 on my 2009 tight end rankings, I’m exiling Tony Gonzalez from the top 5 and inserting Owen Daniels into this exclusive group. Sorry, but Daniels is just too big of a factor in a very explosive Houston Texans offense, and because he has two wide receivers around him that can really stretch the field, defenses pay very little, if any, attention to this guy. If that lack of attention continues in 2009, expect huge numbers for Daniels who cracked the 100-target mark last year, catching 70 balls for 862 yards. Granted, the man was a non-factor in the red zone, and he only caught 2 touchdowns, but I like how he fits into the offense, and his other numbers should be able to overcome a limited number of touchdowns.

Bonus:
Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons – As for Tony Gonzalez, you all know the positives, so I won’t go over those. As for the negatives, there are several, including the fact that his new team is run-oriented, and I don’t see how that’s going to translate into him being the best tight end in fantasy football as so many other sites are predicting. I also don’t see Tony getting that many touchdown catches, since the Falcons first option in the red zone is to give the ball to Michael Turner. And lastly, don’t you think Gonzalez is one of the first keys for the defenses facing this offense? Yes, Roddy White is respected, but I’m not sure defensive coordinators will focus more on White than they will on Gonzalez, who clearly is the more consistent and reliable threat.

Players to Watch: Derrick Ward, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Sports Watchers — Tue, 04 Aug 2009 11:00:00 +0000

Derrick Ward had quite the year for himself last year with the New York Giants, and now he is reaping the benefits of that success with big time money in Tampa Bay. But does his relocation to Florida hurt his prospects as a fantasy football option?

Right now, most draft boards have Derrick Ward ranked between 23-28 among all NFL running backs. Why so low for a guy who averaged 5.6 yards per carry, had more than 1,000 yards last year, and is now getting paid starter’s money behind a maturing offensive line on what is expected to be a run-first team in Tampa Bay?

Well, there are several reasons. First of all, while that Tampa Bay line is maturing, it isn’t quite there yet. The Buccaneers finished 15th in rushing during the 2008 season, and they only averaged 4.1 yards per rush, which was 18th in the league.

Secondly, the Buccaneers have no firm idea on what they are doing at the quarterback position. Certainly, that means they will probably run the ball more, especially with a defensive-oriented coach taking over the helm. However, if teams can load up in the box against this Buccaneers offense, the run game is truly going to struggle. Even last year, when the Bucs got a great season out of Antonio Bryant, who finished 8th in receiving yards, the team’s yards per rush still wasn’t very impressive. That leads me to believe that Derrick Ward won’t see a whole lot of 7-man fronts—especially since the lack of a definitive starting quarterback in Tampa Bay is going to limit the effectiveness of Antonio Bryant and the Bucs deep passing game.

Lastly, while Derrick Ward is getting paid starters money by the Buccaneers, that doesn’t necessarily mean he is the team’s starter. In fact, it has pretty much been established that both Ward and returning running back Earnest Graham are going to be in an open competition for carries. That being said, Ward’s contract does give him the advantage, and he probably will be the guy to get the ball early on. But that doesn’t mean that he won’t have to split carries with Earnest, thereby limiting his own production as well as his value as a top 10 or 15 running back in fantasy football. Not to mention, it’s more than likely that Graham will get the goal-line carries for the Bucs, since that is something that Ward was not accustomed to doing with the New York Giants due to the presence of running back Brandon Jacobs.

So if you were thinking that you should take a risk by drafting Ward slightly ahead of his adjusted draft position, think again. I don’t think the circumstances surrounding Ward warrant him as an underrated guy or as any kind of a sleeper pick. Of course, if Earnest Graham gets hurt in camp, or if Byron Leftwich begins to emerge as the surefire starter, then I might start to take a flier out on Ward—but not a second sooner.