Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Which Running Back Do You Take First in a PPR League?

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So the question of the moment is, does the number one pick in fantasy football change if you’re in points per reception league? And if so, who then becomes the #1 overall pick in PPR leagues?

Well, first of all, yes. The #1 pick does change in PPR leagues. I do not think that Adrian Peterson is the #1 overall pick in fantasy football if points are being allotted for catching passes. The fact is, Adrian Peterson only caught 21 passes last season (and 40 for his career), and with the ongoing problems at the quarterback position in Minnesota, I wouldn’t count on him catching more than 1 pass a game during the 2009 fantasy football season. So while I hate to say it, Adrian Peterson probably drops down to the 3rd best running back in fantasy football in PPR leagues.

So which running back takes over as the projected #1 overall pick in fantasy football? Well, to be truthful, I’m not so sure. But I do have it narrowed down to the top 2.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears
Forte becomes an obvious option, because the Bears offense was so dependent on him last season. Not only did Forte go over 300 rushing attempts (in his rookie year!), but he also had 63 receptions. So in a PPR leagues where 1 point is given for each catch, that’s 63 extra points for Forte.

However, the caveat is that Forte might not be relied upon in the passing game that much this season. With the insertion of quarterback Jay Cutler into the Bears offense, the team now has a quarterback that is more capable of getting the ball down the field. In fact, I don’t mind saying that Cutler is the type of quarterback that is more apt to throw it down field than check it off to the running back, even when maybe he should do the latter. But Cutler’s decision-making aside, the offense as a whole will be more inclined to the get the ball down the sidelines and over the middle of the field to Greg Olsen. As a result, I don’t think the Bears will rely on Forte’s pass-catching ability as much in 2009.

So how many catches are we talking about here? If I have to guess, I would say about 45 catches for Forte this season. Like I said, there’s no way he’s getting the 63 from a year ago, but I think 45 is a safe number.

Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Maurice Jones-Drew (MJD) is the sexy pick of the 2009 fantasy football season. Every fantasy football projection in the world has him as a top 5 running back, and rightfully so, considering that he is now the primary guy in the Jaguars backfield. Certainly, his new role will require that he gets far more than the 197 rushing attempts he got in 2008, and I think most people are assuming that he will get put up “stud-like” rushing numbers (although I’m hesitant to say that given his 4.2 average last season and the fact that he’ll probably only get 15 rushes per game). However, the real value with MJD comes in the form of his versatility. He won’t be returning punts anymore, but his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield will be utilized.

Like Forte, MJD caught 60+ passes (62). But unlike Forte, MJD just might catch more this season. First of all, the Jaguars jettisoned all of their receivers, and really he may be the best option to throw to since newcomer Torry Holt isn’t getting any younger. Also, you have to remember that last year MJD was not on the field as much as he will be this season, so he will undoubtedly be on the field for more passing plays than he was last season just by virtue of getting more playing time. And lastly, MJD has a quarterback that has no problem throwing the ball to the check-down. David Garrard is typically one of the most conservative quarterbacks in the NFL, and he will always check the ball down before he takes a risk throwing it down the field. As I mentioned with Forte, his quarterback, Cutler, is not a big check-down guy.

So I guess in the end, I have answered my own question—to some degree. It appears quite obvious to me that MJD has the better “passing value” projecting forward into this 2009 fantasy football season. However, just because we’re talking about a PPR league, doesn’t mean that rushing yards count any less. And I do believe that Matt Forte will have the better rushing numbers this season, as I projected in our 2009 fantasy football running back rankings.

So that leaves us with the question as to whether or not MJD’s passing value overcomes his paucity of rushing value?

I’m going to say yes. And I will base it one thing. I think MJD has the potential to score a lot more touchdowns this season. MJD had 12 rushing touchdowns last year, while Forte only had 8. MJD’s TD numbers could go up now that he is getting the bulk of the carries, while I don’t see much reason for Forte’s TDs to go up. Yes, the addition of Cutler will make the Bears a better offense, but I don’t see them becoming that much more prolific this season.

So, if you’re asking me, I do think that MJD has enough added value in PPR leagues to overcome what Forte produces on the ground. Thus, MJD is your #1 overall pick in PPR leagues.

Disagree? Let me know in the comments section. Beware: I will respond!

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