Our Fantasy Football Week 9 Projections are in, and we do have a couple of surprises for you. That being said, we weren’t very surprised about what conspired in the NFL last week. We saw Michael Vick and Andy Dalton have great games, while Tim Tebow and Philip Rivers continued to disappoint. Sure, Tom Brady struggled against the Steelers and Drew Brees was wildly off against the St. Louis Rams, but both defenses are tougher than most people had given them credit for up to this point in the season.

Here are your Fantasy Football Week 9 Projections at the quarterback position:

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts
If Matt Hasselbeck can go 23 of 33 against the Colts, than Matty “Ice” Ryan should have no problem doing the same thing. Clearly, the Colts just have deficiencies all around. And even if they had Peyton Manning, the fact that their two defensive ends have been shells of their former selves this season means that the defense just isn’t going to be what it was one and two seasons ago. Without much of a pass rush, Matt Ryan should have all day to throw the ball down the field to Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Add in a running game that will keep Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis on their heels, and you should expect the short yardage stuff to be their too. If Matt Ryan doesn’t have a good game against this defense, he’s just not capable of having one in 2011.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I was as shocked as you were to see the Saints lose to the Rams last week, and truth be told, Drew Brees was a large part of the problems that contributed to the Saints struggles. But rest assure, Brees is not going to have two bad weeks in a row for your fantasy football team. In Fantasy Football Week 9, expect Brees to come out with a fury unbeknownst to quarterbacking. Actually, I take that back. You can probably equate what you’re going to see in Week 9 against the Bucs with what we saw from Brees in Week 7 against the Colts. Only this time, the Brees actually has a reason to be upset.

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles
In full disclosure, I am an Eagles fan, but I will do everything in my power to be objective here. Cutler won’t have a good game for your fantasy football team this week. Not against these cornerbacks. Most of Cutler’s big plays are made against 1-on-1 coverage, down the sideline or across the middle of the field on a rollout. Starting with the latter, there’s no way Cutler successfully rolls out against the wide-nine technique of the Eagles defensive ends. Addressing the former, the Eagles cornerbacks looked like they got their stuff together during the bye week, as none of their guys were beat down the sideline against the Cowboys respectable wide receiving core. Given that the Eagles get to go from covering Mile Austin and Dez Bryant to covering Devin Hester and Johnny Knox, I think Cutler is going to find it extremely difficult to find open wide receivers in NFL Week 9.

As we enter Fantasy Football Week 9, we really have to take a step back and look at the few decent performances we got from the running back position a week ago. For starters, LeSean McCoy busting it out against the Cowboys previously #1 ranked rushing defense had to be a bit of a shocker. Also, Steven Jackson’s 159 yards and two scores was pretty telling of just how good this man is despite his allegiance to a God-awful football team. Will we have similarly big-time performances like the ones we saw from McCoy, Jackson, Frank Gore and Fred Jackson? Or will fantasy football Week 9 fizzle out like the rest of the league’s running backs did?

Here are the Fantasy Football Week 9 Projections at the running back position:

Arian Foster, Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns aren’t good. The Texans are okay. Arian Foster is the best. Since getting healthy, it’s hard to say that we have seen a more impressive back this NFL season. Foster has run hard and for a good amount of yards against some very good defense. In the month of October, Foster gained 809 yards from scrimmage (499 yards rushing), for an average of 161 yards per game. And it’s not like he has been doing this against crappy teams. During his five-game run in October, the Texans faced the Jaguars (14th against the run), the Ravens (3rd), the Raiders (16th) and the Steelers (8th). He also faced the lowly Titans (27th), and as you would expect, he had 100 & 100 against that defense. So what am I to make of an Arian Foster matchup with the Browns (26th) in Fantasy Football Week 9? Oh, it’s not going to be pretty for the people in Cleveland.

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers vs. Washington Redskins
Frank Gore apparently does not want to age. The man has been running hard since the Regan administration and it doesn’t look like he’s going to stop anytime soon—especially not in Week 9. The Washington Redskins look like the basement dwellers of the NFC East now. It’s a shame they didn’t start playing this way at the beginning of the season so that they could be in the “Suck for Luck” campaign. The 49ers are too well coached and too good to host Washington and not run the ball down their throats. The Redskins are 21st against the run and the 49ers are the 6th best rushing team in the NFL. Do the math! Frank Gore runs big in Fantasy Football Week 9!

Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants at New England Patriots
The one good thing for Bradshaw going into this game is that we know he is not going to split time with Brandon Jacobs. After Jacob’s comments on Sunday, I don’t think Tom Coughlin is going to play Jacobs considerably at the running back position until the Regan administration is back in power. Bradshaw, on the other hand, will get plenty of carries. Unfortunately for him in Week 9, he is going up against a Patriots team that has been very stingy with the run. Whether it’s because Bill Belichick and Vince Wilfork are just out coaching and outplaying opposing offensive lines, or if it’s because Tom Brady gets his teams out to monstrous leads, teams just don’t appear capable of running the ball on the Patriots 9th ranked rushing defense. And given that I think Brady will be out to an early lead over the New York Giants this week, I think that remains the case and Ahmad Bradshaw gets shut down in Fantasy Football Week 9.

As we enter Fantasy Football Week 9, let’s take a look back at the week that was in NFL football. We saw just 7 100-yard games from receivers, as offense seemed to be at a premium this past week. Additionally, none of the top 30 wide receivers, in terms of yardage, garnered more than a single touchdown. That’s pretty amazing from a “spread the ball,” “good football” standpoint; unfortunately, it is not good television, nor is it good for your fantasy football team.

Here are your Fantasy Football Week 9 Projections at the wide receiver position:

DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears routinely have trouble with wide receivers that are small, fast, quick and elusive. DeSean Jackson is all of those things. So while a team like the Dallas Cowboys may be able to knock Jackson off with their bigger, stronger cornerbacks, the Bears Cover 2 personnel finds it hard to keep a little guy like Jackson out of the holes in their defense. Thus, I fully expect Jackson to have a big day against this Bears defense, as it does it’s best to keep LeSean McCoy from running all over them. Jackson should definitely see success on 3rd down, when the Bears like to go to their Cover 2 man defense. That’s when the Eagles love to drag Jackson across the field and let him run after the catch—as an Eagles fan, it really is a beautiful thing to watch.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers vs. Green Bay Packers
Typically, I would not bet against the Packers defense. With AJ Hawk coming off the edge and Charles Woodson playing the “wildcard” position for the Packers D, this is a pretty hard defense to beat. However, if there is a man that can do it, it is Vincent Jackson. He is too big and too fast to fail. The Packers will inevitably come after Philip Rivers, and after Antonio Gates beats them a couple of times, they will revert to leaving Vincent Jackson one-on-one down the field. Now, if there is a secondary that is adept to handling 1-on-1 coverage, it is the Green Bay Packers, but with a physical specimen like Jackson running down the sideline, I place my money on the 230-pound wide receiver winning the battle.

Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
If Darrelle Revis is going to struggle with any wide receiver, it is going to be a wide receiver that is bigger and stronger than him. Steve Johnson more or less fits that mold physically, but Johnson’s attitude doesn’t quite measure up with his size. Sure, Johnson talks a big game, but in big games, he has routinely come up short, especially in the end zone, where a big like him should thrive. Thus, I have to like Revis in this matchup. Call it a “mental” play, but Johnson just hasn’t been using his size to this advantage of as of late, which is really damning, because the Bills rushing game has given him enough opportunities to go one-on-one. With 60 balls thrown his way, Johnson has caught 39 of them. That would be held in better regard if Johnson were more of a deep threat like Calvin Johnson, but for more or less a possession receiver, I’d like to see better—especially when he has just four touchdowns. Besides, outside of Brandon Marshall, possession guys like Steve Johnson, don’t tend to do too well against Darrelle Revis.

The quarterback position continues to be a very dicey one in the 2011 fantasy football season. We have several guys that have been up-and-down throughout the season, such as Philip Rivers, Matt Hasselbeck and Matthew Stafford. Because of the up-and-down play this season, looking at the matchups is even more important as we enter Fantasy Football Week 8. That said, sometimes knowing the matchup can’t even save you.

Here are our Fantasy Football Week 8 Projections for the quarterback position:

Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Dallas Cowboys
Michael Vick has not had that big break out game that we have been waiting for yet, but I think it’s coming in Fantasy Football Week 8. The Cowboys are a lot better on defense this season, but they have a lot of undisciplined players that tend to give up big plays—both in the secondary and on the defensive line. A truly dual-threat quarterback like Michael Vick will make them pay for that dearly, and I fully expect Vick to pull a couple of unexpected runs and deep throws against this risk-taking defense ran by defensive coordinator Rob Ryan.

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs
Rivers continues to disappoint. In what was supposed to be an MVP season for the former Pro-Bowl quarterback, Rivers play is the lone thing keeping the Chargers from being one of the elite teams in the NFL. Last week, Rivers got Antonio Gates, and it was still difficult for him to put up the mediocre numbers that he did. While the Chiefs secondary is a lot worse than what Rivers saw against New York, I don’t expect a whole lot more from Rivers than he gave us last week. One can hope, but if you have better options, I don’t know if playing with the mistake-prone Rivers is worth the risk.

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks
Dalton is the very reason that the Bengals were finally willing to trade Carson Palmer away, and in Fantasy Football Week 8, the whole fantasy world is going to see why. Dalton’s ability to stretch the field is going to put the hobbled and young Seahawks secondary to the test, and that is a test that this particular secondary has failed time and time again. The Seahawks’ secondary ranks near the bottom of league against the pass, and with Marcus Trufant out for the rest of the season, there’s no reason to believe that it’s getting better any time soon.

Tim Tebow, Denver Broncos vs. Detroit Lions
Tebow did not show off his arm against the Dolphins last week, and if you’re like me, you didn’t really expect him to. However, he did continue to demonstrate his propensity for running the football, and that just happens to be what the Detroit Lions aren’t so good at defending. While having Ndamukong Suh coming after you doesn’t necessarily lend to running the ball, the Lions have struggled maintaining their gaps with the other 6 players in the defensive front. So expect the Broncos to come out with a lot of misdirection that gets Tebow on the edge and outside to the pocket, where I think he will have just enough success to warrant a start on a fantasy football team whose quarterback is on a bye in Week 8.

Running back play has been the brightest spot in fantasy football since Week 2 of the fantasy football season. We are getting superb play from a litany of running backs this season, including Ray Rice, Arian Foster and Matt Forte, just to name a few. While those guys are living up to their expectations, there are those that are not. We dive into some of the 2011 season’s successes to this day, as well as its failures, in this week’s projections.

Here are your fantasy football Week 8 projections for the running back position:

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals
Ray Rice is pretty much a good bet each and every week of the fantasy football season, and he is never going to see a bad enough matchup that would warrant sitting him on your fantasy football bench. In Fantasy Football Week 8, I fully expect him to be facing what could be his easiest matchup of the season. The Cardinals are bad against the run, which should yield a pretty big day on the ground for the all-pro running back. However, the Cardinals are even worse against the pass, where Rice has racked up a ton of fantasy football points this season. Expect Rice to come out of this game with one of the his best marks of the season, because no matter how the Cardinals prepare for this dual-threat running back, they just don’t have the talent to stop him.

Arian Foster, Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
After a very slow start that saw Foster spend some time out of the lineup for the Texans, Foster has gotten back on track. He is coming off two huge games, including last week’s blowout of the Tennessee Titans. In Fantasy Football Week 8, Foster faces off against a rushing defense that’s a below average 19th in the NFL and doesn’t hasn’t had any success stopping the few major running backs it has faced (excluding Chris Johnson in Week 1). Thus, I like Foster to continue doing what he does in Week 8. The absence of Andre Johnson has made Foster’s running ability an indispensable part of the Texans offense, and whether or not Johnson comes back to the lineup, that should have no effect on Foster’s involvement or touches with the football.

Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans vs. Indianapolis Colts
I know that have essentially crapped on Chris Johnson’s play all season long, and deservedly so. You can’t hold out for all that money and come back and play like garbage as the highest paid running back in the NFL. Of course, it’s not all Johnson’s fault that he’s not having the season his talent would warrant, as the Titans rushing execution hasn’t been the greatest. Still, you have to do better than 3.0 yards per carry and a long of 25 yards when you’re Chris Johnson—I don’t care who’s blocking for him. All that said, I’m actually feeling good about Johnson in Week 8. The Indianapolis Colts are not good as a whole, have aging defensive ends and no linebackers to speak of. The Titans and Johnson should have no trouble running the rock against this light, old defensive front, as Johnson should have a field day.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. New England Patriots
The Patriots defense is not known for being tough. In fact, it was just a couple of weeks ago that their lack of toughness nearly cost them a game against the struggling Dallas Cowboys. Well, do not expect the Mike Tomlin-coached Steelers to come out and not try to punch the Patriots in the mouth. That should mean that Mendenhall will get his fair share of carries, and he should get them fairly early in the game. One just has to hope that the Steelers don’t get behind early, or the Ben Roethlisberger will likely take command of the offense. But if Troy Polamalu and the rest of the defensive boys can keep things tight, I don’t see what 20 attempts won’t yield a big day for Mendenhall against an otherwise soft Patriots defensive front.

The wide receivers came out to play this past week, but then again, they always do. We had more than 7 receivers go over the century-mark last week, and two of them were on the same team. Of those particular seven, only two of them were surprises, including Antonio Brown, who if you actually watch the Pittsburgh Steelers play, isn’t a surprise to you after all.

So who else might step up and have a big day in Week 8?

Here are our Fantasy Football Week 8 Projections for the wide receiver position:

Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills vs. Washington Redskins
Steve Johnson did not exactly have his momentum going into the bye week, but as we enter Week 8 of the fantasy football season, one has to imagine that he will be looking to outdo his previous performance against a lackluster Redskins defense. The Redskins secondary has been exposed on several occasions this season, and a guy by the name of DeAngelo Hall is among those corners that continue to get exposed. For as fast and dependable a catcher as Hall is at the cornerback position, he sure does give up a lot of big plays. And should he be lined upon Steve Johnson, and they both line up on the right side of the offense a lot, one would have to expect that Hall’s gambling and lack of size will again be exposed. I live Johnson in this matchup, thus, Week 8 should be a return to glory for the oft “soft-spoken” cornerback.

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings are not that good. Okay, they aren’t good at all. Namely, their secondary is quite horrible, as both their best cornerback, as well as their nickel back, have been stricken with injuries, leaving them as exposed to danger as a bare-naked ass in the artic. Besides, does it really matter who Steve Smith and his quarterback Cam Newton are up against? Smith is the second-leading receiver in the NFL, only behind Wes Welker, and he has yet to see a defense that can fully contain him. Without Antoine Winfield, along with other injuries, one can only imagine what kind of performance Smith, coming off a 143-yard game, will have in Week 8 against this Vikings defense.

Anquan Boldin, Baltimore Ravens vs. Arizona Cardinals
Boldin hasn’t exactly been lighting it up this season (ranked 27th in receiving yards entering last week), but he has had his moments (132-yard game against the Texans in Week 6). I fully expect Week 8 to be another one of those moments, as the Cardinals secondary has done very little stop any wide receiver from having a big day. From Steve Smith to Mike Wallace, the Cardinals defense has been the revolving door for big-performances at the wide receiver position. It won’t stop in Week 8 either, as Boldin looks to have a big day against the very team that thought he didn’t have enough big days in him to warrant a high-paying contract. Something tells me that Joe Flacco and the rest of the Ravens have Anquan’s back, and if that’s the case, expect many targets (especially in the red zone) for a wide receiver that already has a physical advantage over the Cardinals corners.

Taking a look around the league, the dearth of running back as we approach Fantasy Football Week 7 is getting pretty small. The talent and consistency just isn’t there. So far this season, you have not been able to depend on Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster on a week-to-week basis. Even Maurice Jones-Drew is slipping from time to time. So what does that mean for Week 7 of the NFL season?

Here are our Fantasy Football Week 7 Projections at the running back position.

Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns vs. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks have made some plays on defense this year, but not enough to scare me away from promoting Hillis in Week 7. Even if Hillis himself has been very shaky in 2011, his ability to run-down hill and break tackles should fair well against the poor tackling exploits that the Seahawks have displayed to this point in the season. Don’t get me wrong, this will not be anything near a 150-yard game for Hillis unless he breaks some very uncharacteristic, long run for a touchdown. However, on a carry for carry basis, expect Hillis to get his usual 4.5 yards a pop, which should be enough to produce an above average day for the bruising running back.

Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
McFadden has been a God-send all season long, but with quarterback Jason Campbell now out for the rest of the 2011 fantasy football season, McFadden’s value definitely takes a hit. But not in Week 7! In Week 7, the Raiders are up against the Chiefs, a team that is about as solid on defense as Jell-O-before it’s frozen. Yes, the Chiefs will do everything in their power to make Kyle Boller have to throw football around, but even that won’t be enough to stop McFadden. He’ll catch it out of the backfield, run screen plays, get the ball on the draw—hell, he will even throw the damn football out of the wildcat if they ask him too. In the long run, McFadden might see his fantasy production drop off as a result of having a poor QB at the helm. But in Fantasy Football Week 7, the Chief don’t stand a chance at stopping him, not even if Campbell and his broken collarbone lined up under center.

Willis McGahee, Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins
McGahee has been having a season that reminds us all of his earlier days in Buffalo and in Baltimore. Unfortunately, just as in those days, he again will be without a quarterback, and in Tim Tebow’s debut this year, I sure as hell don’t expect it to be smooth sailing for McGahee and the Denver rushing game. The Dolphins may not be a great defensive team, but they can stop the run if there are no other threats. I would venture to say that having Tebow at the quarterback position means there are no other threats, so expect Miami to come after McGahee with the wrath of a vengeful god. Don’t worry, McGahee will bounce back in weeks to come as Tebow gets better and the opponents aren’t as good defensively. However, in Fantasy Football Week 7, I’m putting my hard-earned money on the thinly-veiled defense of the Dolphins and Tebow’s inability to throw the ball down the field.

The world of fantasy football lives on. For most of you, the writing is just about on the wall. There are not enough weeks left to mount a staggering comeback at this point in the season. So if you aren’t close to .500 at this point, you’re probably done for the remainder of the fantasy football.

However, for those you who still have life left as we enter Week 7, here are our fantasy football projections for Week 7 of the NFL season:

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Saints are coming off a rough loss last week, and nothing cures a loss better than a visit from the Indianapolis Colts sans Peyton Manning. The Colts, while remaining feisty, are doing a pretty damn good job of keeping the “Suck for Luck” campaign alive. There’s no doubt that an angry Drew Brees and New Orleans Saints team comes through with a victory in Week 7. More importantly, Drew Brees will leave this game with some pretty astounding numbers. The Colts secondary has been spotty, their defensive ends have gotten old, and offense can’t stay on the field long enough to give the defense a break. If you don’t like Drew Brees in Fantasy Football Week 7, then you just don’t like Drew Brees.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
At some point, the Green Bay Packers are going to lose to somebody, right? Well, Week 7 against the Vikings isn’t that time. It’s also not the time that Aaron Rodgers stops looking like God’s gift to quarterbacks. Rodgers is playing bonkers right now. His season-to-date Total Quarterback Rating of 85.6 is 10% higher than anybody else’s in the entire NFL, and correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe he is on pace to throw for 5 gazillion touchdowns this season (okay, the projection is actually closer to 45). Against the hapless Minnesota Vikings, there is no way that Rodgers slows down his pace. The Vikings pass defense entered the season weak, and in Week 7, they are without their best player in the secondary. So here’s to a big week for what is seemingly the NFL’s MVP to this point in the season.

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers at New York Jets
Rivers has been an utter disappointment this season. Call me bias, but he has performed so horribly for my team, that I’m seriously considering opting for Matt Hasselbeck for the rest of the season. In Fantasy Football Week 7, the Chargers square off against the New York Jets. Given Rivers’ season-to-date, I really cannot expect too much out of him. Even we are to believe that the Jets defense has many holes, Rivers hasn’t been so adept at stockpiling the stats and fantasy football points against defensive units far worse-off than the Jets. So if you are expecting a big day from Philip Rivers in Week 7, you might want to think your plans over. On a separate note, I hear Hasselbeck is available in 50% of ESPN leagues.

The NFL’s wide receivers didn’t quite put up the numbers they had been putting up in previous weeks. Last week, only 7 wide receivers had games of 100 yards or more, while in Week 4 and 5, we saw 28 wide receivers reach that 100-yard mark.

With that said, in our Fantasy Football Week 7 Projections, we’ll give you two wide receivers almost assured to reach the century mark, while labeling one pass-catcher a big dud in Week 7.

Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts
Hop on the bandwagon while there is still room, because Marques Colston is sure to become a hot commodity after Week 7’s slate of games plays out. He’s coming off his best week of the 2011 season with 7 catches for 118 receiving yards and a touchdown. Why do I think this trend will continue? Because Colston is no longer the number one option on the Saints. With TE Jimmy Graham receiving all of the attention, it makes Colston an after thought, and a very dangerous one at that. Colston now has the ability to line up in the slot, alongside Graham, and see somebody else get the focus of the defense. It will make Graham less attractive over the next few weeks, but Colston fantasy owners shouldn’t mind—unless of course they own Graham too.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons
Calvin Johnson just keeps on trucking. Last week against the 49ers was the first game of the season in which he failed to score a touchdown, and it may be his last. He certainly won’t have any trouble reaching the end zone against the Atlanta Falcons lowly defense. They couldn’t stop me from running down the middle of the field, and I run 5.0! Johnson has all the advantages you would expect in this game (height, strength, experience), but he also has speed. Despite being a smallish secondary, the Falcons are not very fast, not even Dunta Robinson who is more of a physical corner than he is a speedy one. While there is no week not to like Calvin Johnson, Week 7 may seem him do some damage to secondary that has had trouble against far-less talented pass catchers.

Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers at New York Jets
Malcom Floyd’s lat game out was damn impressive. The man had 3 catches for 100 yards and a score in the Chargers win over the Denver Broncos. Against the New York Jets, however, it may be hard for Floyd to get that open—especially if Darrelle Revis is covering him. In all likelihood, Revis will be lined up on Floyd and not Jackson, as Jackson is going to warrant a double-team no matter what. And while Floyd has a size advantage on just about every cornerback he faces, Revis’ lack of height is outweighed by his incredible strength. Revis does a great job of jamming seemingly bigger wide receivers at the line of scrimmage, which gives him the ability to get on top of the wide receiver and run the route for them. Not that any of that matters anyway. Because as soon as Rivers sees Revis on Floyd, he’s looking to throw the football some other place. And given the season Rivers is having so far, who can blame him?

It’s almost crazy to call any quarterback in the NFL a sleeper pick for fantasy football. Entering Fantasy Football Week 5, we are coming of a week in which Colt McCoy threw for 350 yards, rookie Cam New Ton topped 350 yards yet again, and Jason Campbell threw for 344 yards too. All of those guys are what you would consider fantasy football sleepers, but can I dare call them that after performances like that? Let’s find out.

Here are the Fantasy Football Week 5 sleepers at the quarterback position:

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
Looks like Carson Palmer may be retired for the long-haul, because Andy Dalton appears to be the future of the Cincinnati Bengals franchise. He’s an amazing talent that has won a couple of games for his squad, and has looked as if his talent can indeed be cultivated into becoming a big time quarterback. Last week he put up 298 passing yards, a touchdown and 2 interceptions. Not a great day at the office. However, Fantasy Football Week 5, he will be up against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that routinely gives up big days to opposing quarterbacks. Dalton won’t look Palmer circa 2005, but he will top 300 yards. If he can control the interceptions, he is worth a play in Week 5 if your starting quarterback is on the Bench during this first week of NFL and fantasy football bye weeks.

Donovan McNabb, Minnesota Vikings vs. Arizona Cardinals
I read somewhere on ESPN that there was talk of McNabb having to work on his mechanics. As the author rightly pointed out, it is far too late to be working on McNabb’s mechanics. Either he produces on Sundays ore he doesn’t, but there’s no time to treat him as if he’s a 22-year old coming out of college. That said, I think McNabb and his bad mechanics have gotten him very far in life, and he can do just fine throwing the ball as he has all his career—especially in Week 5 against this Cardinals defense. I mean, this defense is just bad—really bad. They gave up over 400 yards to a rookie, and they surrendered 321 yards to Eli Manning just this past week. Let’s face it; they can’t guard the pass, and if every there was a time for McNabb to get off his ass and show that he is worth the millions of dollars he’s earning to keep this Viking ship above water, that time is now. McNabb will come through—just in time to prevent himself from being pulled in favor of the Vikings 1st round pick, rookie quarterback.

As we get set to talk about the Fantasy Football Week 5 Projections, a look back at last week shows that at least 14 wide receivers went over 100 yards last week, and six wide receivers were a catch away from breaking triple-digits. That’s a pretty impressive week for pass-catchers, including some of our top picks from last week, namely Vincent Jackson, Mike Wallace, Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson.

Quite frankly, we didn’t miss on a single wide receiver pick last week.

So get them while we’re hot! Here are the Fantasy Football Week 5 Projections at the wide receiver position.

DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
The Eagles may continue their nightmare of a season in the standings, but on the stat sheet, their players are definitely winning. DeSean Jackson lit up the 49ers for 171 receiving yards last week, and the Bills defense probably isn’t as good as the 49ers. Since Vick and Jackson have been playing together, the two have combined for more explosive plays than just about any other tandem in the league. And if you saw what happened to the Bills defense when they tried to defend A.J. Green last week, then you will understand why I think DeSean Jackson is set to put a few more explosive plays up on the board.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
If you’re like me, you thought bringing in Kevin Kolb would solve Larry Fitzgerald’s woes. Well, they haven’t. He’s still not getting the ball as often as he should, but it’s not necessarily because of the quarterback. The offense just looks defunct, and Kolb doesn’t have too many other options to target. Thankfully, the Vikings have one of the most inconsistent defenses in the league, which means they are more than willing to give up the big play at any moment’s notice. Additionally, they just don’t have secondary players that can match up with Fitzgerald one on one, and given the sudden power running game being provided by Beanie Wells, the Bills will have to go head up with Fitzgerald more than they would like.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears
Calvin Johnson is definitely a machine. His two touchdown catches were symbolic of the fact that he is a man among boys in the secondary. He jumped over a cornerback for the game-winner, and he caught a touchdown pass over three Cowboys to set that up earlier in the game. The Bears have had trouble defending the pass all season long, and it won’t stop in Week 5. Especially since the Bears just love playing man to man on third down, when quarterback Matthew Stafford is most likely to go to Calvin Johnson. Trust me and your own sensibilities on this one, Calvin Johnson will have a big day against the Bears, if for no other reason than every other wide receiver in the league has thus far this season.

Steve Johnson, Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Is it okay if I call him Stevie? Either way, Steve Johnson probably won’t want his name talked about too much after this game. The Eagles are one of the few teams that can try to guard him one-on-one, and they will definitely give it a go. In my opinion (and in full disclosure, I am an Eagles fan), I think Johnson will have a rough day. Not because he can’t be the Eagles corners one-on-one, but because the combination of his quarterback being on the ground and him having to beat difficult corners could make this a long day for him. Look, the Bills passing game had enough trouble against the Cincinnati Bengals well-trained corners, and as underachieving as this Eagles defense has been, it’s better than that of the Bengals. So take my dying allegiance and do with it what you will, but Steve Johnson, who is on one of my fantasy football teams this season, will be on the bench in that league.

We had more than a few good performances from running backs last week, making our Fantasy Football Week 5 projections very interesting. Matt Forte took some time away from being the leading receiver for the Chicago Bears, and actually managed a somewhat decent day of 205 yards on the ground against the Panthers. And Arian Foster finally gave fantasy football teams the performance they were looking for as he went upside the Pittsburgh Steelers heads with his 155 yards on the ground.

Who’s going to step up this week and add to the plethora of running backs that topped 100 yards last week? Here are the Fantasy Football Week 5 Projections for the running back position:

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals
Amid all of that greatness we saw from running backs last week, Peterson had just 80 rushing yards. He did get 23 carries, and 5 of last week’s 100+ rushers managed to get 100 yards with that many carries or fewer. So Peterson had his opportunities, and perhaps Donovan McNabb’s passing is more of the problem. Whatever it is, if Peterson doesn’t get back on track in Week 5, it wasn’t meant to happen. The Cardinals are good at stopping the run, but the Vikes are against the wall and they HAVE to give the football to their best players. That’s right, our sanctimonious position on Peterson isn’t that this is the best matchup, but this is “step up” time for the all-pro running back. If Peterson and the Vikings have any chance of salvaging this season (and they really don’t), it has to start in Week 5 against this Cardinals defense.

Arian Foster, Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders
If the Patriots can rush on you like that, than anybody can rush on you. The Patriots seemingly had their way with the Raiders rush defense last week. While it may have more to do with the threat of the passing game than it does their run-defense efficiency, I saw a lot of mistackles that makes me think the former had a lot to do with it. Thus, I like Foster and his fresh legs to come back in Week 5 with another big performance. Besides, with Andre Johnson either out or hobbled, the Texans are likely to lean on him the same way they leaned on him against the Steelers last week, when he got 30 carries and helped win the game for the Texans

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions
What are the chances that Bears offensive coordinator Mike Martz has finally learned that he can’t keep throwing the football and keep Jay Cutler alive? Hopefully, for Cutler’s sake, they are quite high. Certainly, Matt Forte owners were happy to learn that Martz gave Forte the rock 25 times last week, which resulted in 205 yards on the ground. Surely, the Bears offensive line isn’t built to do that every week, and the weakness of the Panthers defensive front had something to do with that as well. But one has to imagine that Forte will at least get a chance to do this again in Week 5, and with his athleticism, that’s really all he needs to produce a big day for your fantasy football team.

LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers defensive front is strong—very strong. And because of that, you would be wise to consider LeGarrette Blount a fantasy dud for Week 5. We can’t possibly project him having a big day against a defense that essentially shut down every running play the Eagles had last week. LeSean McCoy looked like Colt McCoy running the football, and I’m sure the 49ers defense can do the same to Blount. Bench him if you’re smart, and risk falling back a game in your fantasy football league if you do not.

The quarterback position continued to take over the NFL in Week 5. Michael Vick topped 400 passing yards. Aaron Rodgers looked like Dan Marino and steroids. And Tony Romo proved once again, that no lead is safe if the winning quarterback makes enough mistakes.

Here are the Fantasy Football Week 5 Projections for the quarterback position:

Eli Manning, New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks
Peyton Manning may be out for the rest of the season, but his brother is a sure thing to show up in Fantasy Football Week 5. Besides, even Manning might come back for a game against the Seattle Seahawks. Given that team’s lackluster pass rush, even a guy with a broken neck could feel safe in the pocket. I expect Eli to have plenty of time in the pocket, allowing him to find one of his many targets, such as Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham and super athlete Hakeem Nicks, all day long. This could be yet another 4-touchdown day for the Peyton’s little brother—looks like somebody is growing up.

Matt Schaub, Houston Texans vs. Oakland Raiders
The Texans tried to do everything they could to cough up that game against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, and Matt Schaub’s play wasn’t exactly beneficial to their win either. That said, the Raiders are fresh off getting roasted by the passing attack of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, and if the Texans are smart, they will come right back in Week 5 and attack those very same weaknesses that the Patriots exposed. I like Schaub in this game enough to say that he will do well with or without Andre Johnson. Having said that, I might hedge my bet with another quarterback if Johnson is out, but only if it’s clearly the better option.

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos
Philip Rivers play to this point in this season hasn’t exactly been spectacular. Many people had him as a respectable MVP candidate coming into the season given what he did with the infestation of injuries that plagued the Chargers locker room a season ago. This year though, with everyone healthy, the expectations have seemingly gotten to Rivers, and he’s good for about two picks a game right now. He should get it all turned around against the Broncos in Week 5, as Champ Bailey is likely out again, and the Broncos are one of the worst at defending the pass—even with Champ on the field.

Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
Thanks in part to his two rushing touchdowns, Cam Newton was a fantasy god send yet again. His play this season is rather remarkable, making it undeniably foolish to bet against this guy’s ability and potential at this point in the season. Well, call me a fool, but Cam won’t have crazy numbers again in Week 5. He’s up against a Saints defense that has its best pass rusher back in the fold to get after him, and he’s going to have to play keep up with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints defense. Yes, I know, Cam has already gone mano-y-mano with Drew Brees and came out with staggering numbers, but believe it or not, that Packers secondary is weak this season. While the Saints are much superior, they do know how to get after the quarterback. And once Brees and the Saints offense make the Panthers one-dimensional, Cam Newton will be more likely to take four sacks than score four touchdowns.

If the quarterbacks had great games last week, then you know the wide receivers entering Fantasy Football Week 4 are coming off good games as well. Wes Welker put up a staggering 217 of Tom Brady’s 386 passing yards last week. Mike Wallace had yet another big day at the office with 144 receiving yards. And a guy by the name of Torrey “I don’t know who the hell you are” Smith came through with 152 yards receiving and 3 touchdown grabs. Need I say anymore about last week’s performances?

Here are the Fantasy Football Week 4 Projections at the wide receiver position:

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
How can anyone not like this matchup? The Cowboys do not have a single cornerback that can matchup with Santonio Holmes, nevermind the likes of Calvin Johnson. And the fact that Rob Ryan likes to come after quarterback makes it even more enticing to jump on the Calvin Johnson bandwagon in Week 4. The more blitzes Ryan sends Detroit’s way, the more one-on-one matchups Johnson will have with that Cowboys secondary. Anytime I even hear the words singled-up and Calvin Johnson in the same sentence, I immediately see visions of touchdowns in my mind. As if there was any reason for you not to count on Johnson this week, please make him one of your top plays in rotisseries, salary cap or just straight-up gambling leagues everywhere.

Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
Steve Smith was the leading wide receiver entering last week’s slate of fantasy football matchups, but after Wes Welker essentially shat on the Buffalo Bills defense, Smith has now been bumped all the way down to third most prolific receiver in the NFL. Who knew that Cam Newton could keep the aging wide receiver relevant in his twilight years, but that is exactly what’s happening, and one should expect it to stay that in Fantasy Football Week 4. The Bears have always had trouble covering Steve Smith, and the cover 2 defense is the reason why. Smith has a knack for getting behind the coverage on Cover 2, and again, to my surprise, Cam Newton has an ability to beat the coverage with the throw. Newton did regress last week, but I’m not worried about that. A guy with that kind of resolve and charisma never has two horrible weeks in a row, which means Week 4 could be a big one for the old Steve Smith.

Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans
The Houston Texans secondary was supposed to be better this season. Then they let Drew Brees drive on them for the game-winning touchdown while yielding of last week’s worst defenses of a quarterback. As you all know, I have been on the Mike Wallace bandwagon since the end of the 2009 NFL season, and he hasn’t disappointed since. In fact, he has done nothing but get better, clearly establishing himself as both a deep threat and the go-to wide receiver on the Steelers offense. If you like big plays, you should like Mike Wallace, and in Week 4, you get the added bonus of his opponents being mentally incapable of defending the pass.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
I do not know what’s wrong with Philip Rivers, but he better get it together for all of his fans and all of those who own Vincent Jackson in their fantasy football leagues. Even with Rivers spotty play though, Jackson is averaging 89 yards per game and has 2 touchdowns under his belt. Unfortunately, those numbers pale in comparison to the receiving numbers of Rob Grownkowski (TE) and Matt Forte (RB). Vincent Jackson is better at catching the ball than a damn tight end and running back, and that can’t possibly be the case for much longer. Thankfully, the Dolphins are traveling to San Diego, where Jackson will promptly expose Vontae Davis for the Adam Pacman Jones/Will Allen comparable that he is.

Entering Fantasy Football Week 4, I am coming off a 2-for-4 performance with last week’s projections. I nailed Ray Rice, and Fred Jackson wasn’t the easiest person to hang my hat on given that he was up against the New England Patriots. However, we missed on Rashard Medenhall (I am now done with him!), and Chris Johnson is fast-approaching fantasy bust territory.

Here’s hoping for a better performance this time around. Here are the Fantasy Football Week 4 Projections at the running back position.

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
There are a lot of articles going around (including this one from ESPN) suggesting that the Eagles may somehow be better off with Vick on the sidelines. Well, I’m not one of the guys who believes that, and if the Eagles have any hope of winning this division, they need luck in their corner while Michael Vick is out. That said, the Eagles will heavily depend on the running game now that Mike Kafka or Vince Young is leading the charge, which should mean a heavier workload for McCoy. It won’t be significantly heavier, because McCoy just isn’t built like that, but he’ll see at least 5 more carries this game than he has seen all season, and I like his chances to break one against a 49ers defense that has seemingly lost the edge it had a season and a half ago.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears vs. Carolina Panthers
I know I am going to catch some flack for this, but Matt Forte is one of the top running backs in the NFL. Forget about fantasy football for a second, the fact is, he produces at essentially the same yardage clip as Adrian Peterson—he just needs the passing game to do so. And so be it; that benefits all of you points-per-reception fantasy football leagues. His lone down-fall is scoring touchdowns because of the putridly inconsistent nature of his offensive line, but I think he will get a crack or two at the end zone against this very spotty Carolina Panthers defense, which gave up more yardage than I thought they would to the Jaguars rookie quarterback a week ago.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs
Sorry, Minnesota fans, but your team is not trying to win games. Up 20 points in the second half, the Vikings elected to run the ball with Peterson just 5 times, and they attempted a critical short-yardage play with Toby Gerhart. Personally, I think the coach just wants out of this season; otherwise, you can’t explain the phenomenon I just laid before you. Whether he’s concerned about his job security or not, there’s no way the coach doesn’t rush the ball more in Week 4. Peterson should have a big day against a Chiefs defense that has essentially yielded a big day to every running back they have faced this season.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens vs. New York Jets
Dud of the Week: I love Ray Rice. I actually have him in one of my two main fantasy football leagues. Still, he is up for a tough one against the New York Jets, and I am not sure that he is going to come through. Granted, the Jets did just give up 80 billion yards to Darren McFadden, and Rice is the only guy that manages to eclipse 100-yard games against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but when the Jets are reeling, they lean on their defense. And if I know Rex Ryan, he’s not going to let Ray Rice beat him in Week 4, he’s going to make Flacco do it. Considering what Flacco did last week, they may not be the route to go, but if you’re Rex, you stop Ray Rice and let Darrelle Revis handle the passing game.

The passing yards continued to add up for the NFL’s quarterbacks last week. Going into Monday Night Football, five players had eclipsed the 370-yard mark in passing. While there were no 400-yard passers to speak of, big time performances from Joe Flacco and Matthew Stafford, along with a passing duel between Drew Brees and Matt Schaub led to yet another big day of aerial plays in the NFL

Will Fantasy Football Week 4 bring that same kind of punch, or will the quarterback passing well finally tap out?

Here are the Fantasy Football Week 4 Projections at the quarterback position:

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys
Say what you will about Stafford’s inability to stay healthy, he sure does know how to throw the ball. He can make all of the throws, has beautiful mechanics and has the quick release to go with. That combination of the big arm and quick trigger is really what separates him from the rest, because otherwise, he’s no different than Joe Flacco or Matt Ryan. But there’s a reason Stafford was the #1 overall player in his draft and those two guys weren’t, and we say it last week when it seemed like he was throwing touchdowns in backyard during that second half against the Vikings. Against the Dallas Cowboys, expect similar results, even on the road. The aggressive nature of the Cowboys defense lends very well to Stafford’s quick release. The Dallas defensive backs will try to break on Stafford’s throws, only they won’t be able to beat his arm. I like Stafford to put up big numbers in the Big D and be a worthwhile play in your fantasy football league.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders
Tom Brady just keeps on ticking this season. Even though he did put up 4 interceptions last week, he did throw 4 touchdowns to go along with them. That doesn’t make for the best quarterback rating in the world, but to a fantasy football player, the fantasy points amount to throwing a 2-touchdown, no interception game with 387 passing yards to boot. In Fantasy Football Week 4, expect the interception total to drop, as the New England Patriots head over to Oakland to enact revenge. While this game has all the makings of an upset with the Patriots traveling across the country, I still expect Brady to go up and down the field against a Raiders defense that let Mark Sanchez go for 369 passing yards.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs. Denver Broncos
Believe it or not, Rodgers had a fairly pedestrian week last week, going for just 297 passing yards against the Chicago Bears defense. In Fantasy Football Week 4, expect that total to be north of 300 yards, as having the Broncos defense come to Titletown isn’t quite the same as having to face the old “Monsters of the Midway” at Soldier Field. As a fantasy football player with Rodgers on your squad, you have to really like your chances this week, as the Broncos defense seems to be about as inconsequential as an NFL defense can be. For God’s sake, they gave up 311 yards to freaking Matt Hasselbeck! Hasselbeck! One can only imagine what that means for Rodgers’ numbers in Week 4. I guess that’s why they call this fantasy!

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars
Boy do you have to love this matchup for Drew Brees and the Saints, and you do so for a couple of reasons. First of all, we know the Jaguars defense sucks, so that’s a given. Second of all, with Blaine Gabbert at quarterback, Brees is sure to see some short fields which should result in a couple of haymaker-like lobs at the end zone. And third of all, the Jaguars run the football a lot, so this game won’t be out of hand too early to stop Brees from throwing the ball down their throats. Oh, if you own Brees in your fantasy football league, this is the week you have been waiting for.

Fantasy Football Week 3 brings us some very interesting running back/defense matchups. First, looking back at last week, our projections weren’t so hot, but that was mostly due to injury. So while we were right on the money with Ray Rice and LeSean McCoy, the injuries to Jamaal Charles and Arian Foster cost on a couple of our picks.

Onward and upward though, as we move on to this week’s picks, in which we do have a couple of surprises. Here are the Fantasy Football Week 3 projections at the running back position.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts
If it doesn’t happen this week, it’s probably not going to happen for Rashard Mendenhall. As much as I am beginning to regret including him among my top three running backs for the 2011 fantasy football season, self-perseverance is not the reason why I am including him in the top Fantasy Football Week 3 projections. Mendenhall is going up against an Indianapolis Colts defense that has already surrendered big games to two running backs considered far less talented than Mendenhall, Peyton Hillis and Ben Tate. So if Mendenhall can’t get it going against the Colts, I will give up all hope on this guy, but chances are, even Tiki Barber could have a good game against this rendition of the Colts D.

Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos
If it’s going to happen, it’s going to happen this week. That’s not to say that I’m putting Chris Johnson in the same boat as Mendenhall, but whereas I think there’s a chance Mendenhall might not have a good game, I know Johnson has to put up at least decent numbers against the Denver Broncos. I know that fantasy football players across the world are crying about how much Johnson has disappointed them, but the Broncos defense should remedy their tears. The Broncos have already given up a big game to Darren McFadden, and would have likely given up a big one to the Bengals had Cincinnati not decided to throw 41 passes with Andy Dalton. Trust me; Johnson is coming through for you this week, Fantasy World! Trust me!

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens at St. Louis Rams
It’s pretty much a safe bet to include Ray Rice among any top performing projections list, because the man is truly the embodiment of the dual threat running back. Last week, things weren’t going so well on the ground for the Tennessee Titans, so Rice went ahead and led the team in rushing yards, receptions and receiving yards, while scoring a touchdown on a screen pass. Not to mention, the guy got 8 targets last week, showing just how integrated he is into all parts of the Ravens offensive game plan. Any running back that gets 8 targets out of the backfield and is a team’s top rusher is always worth a start on your fantasy football team.

Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots
Yes! I am indeed jumping on the bandwagon—not just the Fred Jackson fantasy bandwagon, but the Buffalo Bills bandwagon. This is a very good team with very good offensive players and a plethora of first and second round picks on defense—this team should be winning football games! That said, they are going to get the crap smacked out of them by the New England Patriots, a team known for destroying teams that have been playing above themselves. However, when the Pats get ahead, expect the Bills to turn to the guy they trust the most; Fred Jackson! The man is a lot like Ray Rice, doing it all and doing it all effectively. The Patriots defense certainly has shown that it can get sliced up here and there, and with Jackson as the primary threat out of the backfield, the Patriots, which struggled with Ryan Mathews last week, may yield yet another big day to a running back in Fantasy Football Week 3.

Fantasy Football Week 3 is here, but we can’t quite get to that without discussing the outcome of last week’s round of projections. Last week we told you Michael Vick would come to play, and he certainly did well despite getting knocked out of the game. We “went out on a limb” and projected a big game Aaron Rodgers too. And we gave you Matthew Stafford, who looked like Dan Marino himself in the Detroit Lions route of Kansas City.

Of course, we weren’t so on the money about Joe Flacco coming through against the Tennessee Titans. Oh well, you win some, you lose some, but there are always more predictions to be made. Here are the Fantasy Football Week 3 Projections for the quarterback position.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints vs. Houston Texans
Let me start of by saying that there will not be any surprises in our Fantasy Football Week 3 projections. This week, the best quarterbacks are facing some of the worst defenses, and we are likely to see something similar to what we say in the first week of the fantasy football season, when quarterbacks ruled the day. And with Drew Brees going against the defense of the Houston Texans, at home, I really do like the chances of Brees being the top passer in the NFL in Week 3. Granted, the Texans have looked “good” against the pass in their first two games. However, the problem is the Texans haven’t faced a decent quarterback in either of their first two games, nevermind someone of Brees’ merit. With all due respect to the Texans, who may just very well be the best team in the AFC South, their defense is still very suspect and it’s one I’m willing to bet against.

Matt Schaub, Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints
What comes around, goes around, and you can stat in the very same game for my next top Fantasy Football Week 3 projection. Quarterback Matt Schaub also has a rather intriguing matchup in Week 3, as the Saints defense hasn’t been without its flaws this season. The Saints secondary made Aaron Rodgers look like the MVP of the league in the first week, and they weren’t incredible against Jay Cutler and the Chicago Bears last week either. Besides, anytime you have Andre Johnson on the other side of the football, the defense is in for a world of hurt. The Saints could barely handle accounting Greg Jennings—scratch that. They couldn’t account for Greg Jennings. That leads me to believe that even should they achieve whatever goal they have in covering Johnson this week, it’s likely to leave a whole lot of other people on the football field open, which is why I like Schaub’s Week 3 outlook no matter what happens to Andre and this suspect Saints secondary.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Could Tom Brady start the season off any better? The man has passed for 940 yards in the first two weeks of the season. I said 940 passing yards! That is freaking ridiculous. At his current rate, Donovan McNabb won’t reach 940 yards passing until the first quarter of Week 8! And don’t expect Brady to slow down anytime soon. He’s got the Bills up this week, and that’s a team that Patriots usually beat by about 40 million points every season. Granted, the Bills have won a couple of games this season, and they are capable of putting up a fight. But given that their defense surrendered 35 points to the Oakland Raiders, even a close a game will likely be devoid of any defense whatsoever, making Brady a prime candidate for yet another 400-yard passing game.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
We saw Drew Brees go over the top of the Chicago Bears defense a couple of times last week, and undoubtedly, the Bears and head coach Lovie Smith will try to rectify that that prior to their Week 3 matchup with the Green Bay Packers. However, as is often the case in the NFL, one countermove is followed by another countermove, and knowing how smart Green Bay Packers head coach Mike McCarthy is, I truly expect him to come out with the full intention of using the short passing game to pick the Bears defense apart. Don’t worry though; the big play will still be there. The second the Bears try to come up and take away the short passes that the Packers are killing them with, Rodgers will go over the top of the defense and get the big plays you need to justify why you drafted him as high as you did in your fantasy football league.

Among our top picks in our Fantasy Football Week 2 projections were Michael Vick and Aaron Rodgers. Clearly, you don’t have much say in whether or not you put them in your fantasy football roster, as they are pretty much a given. That’s why we really enjoy providing you with our weekly fantasy football sleepers, because it gives you and us an opportunity to explore some of the more risky options for those of us who are not solidified at every position.

At the quarterback position, it pains to say that we did not have to dig that deep to find sleepers, because there are so many talented quarterbacks that even the available ones can play football. Anyway, enough with the chatter. Here are your fantasy football sleepers for Week 2 of the 2011 fantasy football season.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills vs. Oakland Raiders
Let the record show that Ryan Fitzpatrick was among our sleeper picks last week. Then again, we had Ben Roethlisberger as one of our fantasy sleepers, and Joe Flacco was on the “dud” list. That said, we really like Fitzpatrick again this week, because the defense he is playing is fairly susceptible to the pass. All it will take is a couple of runs or swing passes to Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, and Fitzpatrick will be able to pick a part the Raiders secondary in the same fashion he dismantled a Kansas City team devoid of a quality secondary last week.

Rex Grossman, Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals
Don’t get it twisted! I am not a lover of Rex Grossman by any means, nor am I jumping on the proverbial bandwagon. Instead, I’m recognizing Grossman for what he is, a hysterically up and down quarterback with a history of looking really good in the “eye” of the beholder, but only right before the tornado of quarterbacking destruction creeps into the beholder’s living room. Listen, he played well against a depleted New York Giants secondary, and he’s going to play well against a Cardinals secondary that watched rookie Cam Newton throw for 400+ yards despite under throwing Steve Smith every chance he had the opportunity to do so. So chalk Grossman’s great start up to the schedule, and put him in your starting lineup for Fantasy Football Week 2.

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints
Here’s a well-known gunslinger that I am a believer of. Cutler has gotten a bad wrap for not doing all the badly. Yes, he threw 20+ interceptions one season, which followed another season in which he was the quarterback of one of the greatest collapses in NFL divisional history. Still, the man can throw, and when he’s not throwing his usual interception per game, he’s typically doing what’s right with the ball. In fact, Cutler’s main issue is when he’s getting pressure from a four-man rush, but in Week 2, that probably will not be a problem. With Will Smith out for the Saints, Cutler will have as much time in that backfield as Aaron Rodgers, and he’s almost as fleet of foot too. Thus, I really like Cutler as a potential waiver wire pickup if you are in need of some fantasy football sleepers at this position in Week 2.

If you are in need of a running back, you have come to the right place. We are doing are best to identify potential fantasy sleepers for Week 2, and we think we have the ones you need on your roster. Last week we had Cedric Benson and Matt Forte on our sleepers list, as neither was expected to do much in their debut. However, Benson and Forte came through with a clutchness, and I plan on picking similar clutch-worthy players with this fantasy football sleeper picks.

Here are Week 2’s fantasy football sleepers at the running back position.

Fred Jackson Buffalo Bills vs. Oakland Raiders
Jackson isn’t a “real” sleeper, given that he is owned in 100% of fantasy football leagues, but he is a sleeper in the sense that only 30% of fantasy football players with Jackson on their team actually put him in the starting lineup. After all, who the hell knew Kansas City would get worse on defense in 2011? Jackson should be able to maintain that 100+ rushing yard average that he has for all of one game this season, as the Raiders defense is susceptible to the pass, and is going to do its best to stop Fitzpatrick from beating them. That should add up to more touches for Jackson, as Oakland will likely dare the Bills to run as a defense mechanism against the pass. We still have Ryan Fitzpatrick having a big day, but we see no issue with Fred Jackson getting his as well.

Tim Hightower, Washington Redskins vs. Arizona Cardinals
Funny enough, we come up with these fantasy football projections separately, and yet here we are with another quarterback-running back duo among our fantasy sleepers for Week 2. Grossman is definitely going to have a big day against the Cardinals defense on Sunday, but Tim Hightower shouldn’t be too far behind. Hightower was a top 10 running back last week, and he will do the same against this Cardinals defense. Rest assure that Arizona won’t let Grossman get 1-on-1 coverage, as that’s about the only time he seems to exceed—something the Giants failed to exploit. While the Cardinals still don’t have the talent to defend the pass with zone coverage, you know Mike Shanahan is going to get the ground game in there somehow. I really like Hightower in his second week under the Shanahan zone blocking scheme, especially against an Arizona team that doesn’t have nearly the defensive line talent that the New York Giants have.

Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears
You have to be a fan of Thomas in Week 2, as both Marques Colston and Lance Moore could be out at the wide receiver positions. Drew Brees will have to turn to someone to pick up their share of the load, and that should be Thomas in both run game and the passing attack. Thomas is clearly the Saints best rusher of the ball, even with Mark Ingram in the fold. Ingram might snake some touchdown scores, but my feeling is that practice might have already gotten nixed given Ingram’s ill-fated attempt at the goal last week. Either way, Coach Sean Payton now knows what he has in both backs, and it should be as clear as day, Thomas deserves more touches and to be on your fantasy football team’s starting roster.

It was easy finding sleeper picks at the wide receiver position given how freely quarterbacks are slinging the football around to start off the season. Last week we went with Robert Meachem and the seemingly undervalued Brandon Lloyd, both who turned out pretty decent weeks. In Fantasy Football Week 2, we think we have some even more available players that will have even better performances than our picks from last week.

Here are the fantasy football sleepers for Week 2 of the NFL season:

Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers
Nelson may not always be the most sure-handed guy in the world, but he certainly knows how to get open. Not that Aaron Rodgers needs a wide receiver to be open in order for him to get the ball, but Nelson has become one of Rodgers favorite targets because of his ability to get separation very early in his routes. Against the Carolina Panthers defense, which gave up 300+ yards passing to Arizona last week, Nelson shouldn’t have any trouble finding holes and crevices in the coverage. Of course, it helps that the defense will likely pay more attention to Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley, but that’s what makes Nelson a sleeper pick after all.

Devery Henderson, New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears
Henderson has always been a bit of an underperformer, as all of that wonderful speed was supposed to translate into something special in the NFL. Well, every now and then he shows glimmers of that potential, and last week was one of those times. Henderson had 100 yards and a touchdown against one of the premiere defenses in the NFL, and the fact that he did it on six receptions speaks volumes about his ability to be dependable receiver. Henderson will have to be even more valuable in Week 2, as Marques Colston is sitting out the week with yet another injury. Lance Moore may be back to alleviate some of the stress on the Saints wide receiving core, and Robert Meachem has become quite the target for Drew Brees, but neither is as wholly talented as Henderson is when he’s on his “A” game. So expect a lot of Colston’s targets to come in the direction of Devery, which should lead to yet another big day for the speedy wide receiver.

As you can imagine, given the week quarterbacks had to open the season, there were plenty of wide receivers that had field days in the opening week of the 2011 fantasy football season. We all know the big names that came through, but how about the players that came out of no where? There was Early Doucet, Randall Cobb, Doug Baldwin, Ted Ginn—stop me if you need time to Google who these players are. Then of course, there were the big names that surprised us, such as Steve Smith, Plaxico Burress and even Kenny Britt’s 25-point day at the office had to be surprising given how terrible his team is.

If we can get that kind of production from no-names and no-name big names alike in Week 2 again, I will not complain. Chances are, that’s not going to happen to often. So here are a handful of wide receivers that are very likely to come through for you fantasy team this week. Here are the fantasy football projections for Week 2 at the wide receiver position.

Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Buffalo Bills roasted the Chiefs secondary for four passing touchdowns last week, and that was with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing to Steve Johnson. With all due respect, that combination isn’t exactly as daunting as Matthew Stafford to Calvin Johnson. Additionally, the Lions have the added benefit of the Chiefs missing their starting, all-world safety, Eric Berry. Thus, I don’t see how you can’t love Calvin Johnson in this matchup. The Chiefs have no cornerbacks to speak of, their best secondary player is out for the season, and Stafford looked like freaking Dan Marino last week just tossing it up to the big fella in the end zone for Johnson’s lone touchdown. This should be an easy game for the Lions, and a very easy game for Calvin Johnson.

Roddy White, Atlanta Falcons vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Michael Vick may be coming back to Atlanta in Fantasy Football Week 2, but Roddy White is the city’s new most explosive player. While White’s 8 catches for 61 yards didn’t stand out in a week like the one we just had, he still proved how great he is. Grabbing 8 catches in a game in which his offensive line was being decimated just goes to show you how great and consistent of a player he is. Conversely, the Eagles defense proved how suspect and inconsistent they can be in the passing game, despite having seemingly every good cornerback in the world on their roster. Maybe Week 2 is the week they get it together, but maybe it isn’t. Either way, I’m guessing that Eagles first-year defensive coordinator Juan Castillo still hasn’t figured out how to play the slant and other routes from the slot position. So expect White to line up inside more often than usual to take advantage of the one weakness the St. Louis Rams were able to expose last week.

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins defense mine as well have stayed in training camp last week. Giving up 511 yards to Tom Brady probably isn’t’ the most embarrassing thing given that Tom Brady may be the best quarterback that ever lived. However, giving up 511 yards with the majority of it going to tight ends, running backs and slot receivers is a sign that your defense just sucks. It’s also a sign that your defense isn’t all that fast, and that’s a problem when you’re trying to cover Andre Johnson. With all due respect to Vontae Davis, I don’t think he is going to be able to hold Johnson in this contest. Johnson is entirely too big for him, and I’m not sure he has the speed to cover Johnson all by himself. And heaven forbid somebody else line up on Johnson this week, because given what I saw this past Monday Night, such an occurrence is the Dolphins way of just giving the other team six points.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins
Kevin Kolb looked good in his debut as an Arizona Cardinal. Larry Fitzgerald? Not so much. That’s okay, 62 receiving yards puts Fitzgerald right on pace to get 1,000 yards for the season, and you and I both know that that Larry and Kolb will only get better together as the season moves on. In fact, it’s safe to say that Fantasy Football Week 2 may be the start of the Kolb to Fitzgerald combination. The Washington Redskins, even in victory, surrendered a lot of big plays to the Giants passing game last week, including two plays of 40 yards or more. To their credit, they did not surrender a touchdown pass, however, it’s not as if they were defending Larry Fitzgerald out there. Expect Fitzgerald, the highest paid wide receiver in the history of the NFL, to go out and earn his money this week, as the Redskins try their damndest to find somebody who can guard him. Truth be told, even if such a human being exists, he sure as hell isn’t on the Redskins roster.

While quarterbacks were in rare form last week, running backs could have done a little bit better. Any week in fantasy football in which Mike Tolbert is the second leading point scorer at his position was a bad week for running backs. I mean seriously, nobody did anything. Arian Foster was out. Adrian Peterson was garbage. Maurice Jones-Drew was mundane, and Chris Johnson was the most non-existent, highest paid running back I have ever seen in my life. Here’s to a better week in this time around.

Here are the Fantasy Football Week 2 projections for the running back position.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Ray Rice was just about the only big time name that came through for you last week, and should be able to you out again in Week 2. To be able to rush for over 100 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers is a sign of just how good the Ravens rushing attack is with Rice. And so if Maurice Jones-Drew can rush for 97 yards against the Titans, who is to say what the Ravens can rush for against that same defense? My guess is that it is a lot! Not to mention, Rice hauled in 4 catches for 42 yards last week, demonstrating his remarkable versatility yet again. After a week like the one we had, when it comes to running backs, Ray Rice is about as sure as it gets this week.

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
If you consider McCoy a big name running back, than I suppose he came through for you too last week. His 122 rushing yards certainly were nothing to sneeze at, as McCoy amassed the second highest rushing total of the week (behind only Darren McFadden). The important number for McCoy though was two—as in the two touchdowns he had to give him 25 standard fantasy points in the Week 1 opener. Against the Atlanta Falcons I expect much of the same from McCoy, as the Falcons proved that they are about as dysfunctional a team as there was in Week 1. Besides, the entire Eagles offense as a whole is just too fast for the Falcons. Between DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy, the Falcons are going to be too busy spinning their heads in the passing game to worry about McCoy in the running game. Expect a couple of long runs from this Eagles running back in Week 2.

Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions
Somebody sound the alarm, because we have a missing person in Kansas City. Where the hell was Jamaal Charles during the Buffalo Bills route of the Chiefs? Oh, I know where he was—or at least what he was. He was 10 for 10 for 56 on the ground and 5 for 9 in the air. That’s right, he had 9 yards on five catches! And in case you didn’t catch the game, he didn’t make the end zone either. He has to be better in Fantasy Football Week 2, as the Detroit Lions seemed pretty vulnerable to the running back out of the backfield last week. They gave up 8 catches to freaking Earnest Graham! So despite Charles paltry receiving average a week ago, I’m willing to bet my reputation on the fact that if Charles gets 8 catches out of the backfield against the Lions defense, he will turn that into something. Of course, getting 8 catches would require Jamaal actually showing up this week—something he surely didn’t do in Week 1.

Arian Foster, Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins
I admit, I have no idea what Arian Foster’s status is as of the writing of this post, but I do know that he almost played this past week and that the Dolphins defense is a complete mess. Sure, Miami was at a disadvantage the second they stepped on the field against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, but 511 passing yards? That’s ridiculous. While the Dolphins held their own in the “rushing game” against the Patriots, that’s really not saying much given what they gave up in the air. Truth be told, the rushing defense of the Dolphins will probably the least of Coach Tony Sporano’s concerns given his team’s pass defense deficiencies. Expect the Houston to open up that Dolphins defense early with the passing game in order to loosen up the box and get the rushing game going late. Last week, Ben Tate managed 116 rushing yards in Arian Foster’s place, showing the Texans commitment to the run. So if Foster is in the lineup, expect a similar load for him in Fantasy Football Week 2, as the Dolphins defense appears—well, defenseless.

Boy did we get some good quarterback play in the first week of the 2011 fantasy football season. And it’s not like we got great play from just one or two guys, but everybody was out there throwing the old football around. Hell, even rookie Cam Newton had 422 passing yards in his NFL debut—this after completing just 40% of his passes during the preseason. And naturally, Dan LeBatard goes on his brand new show yesterday and yells about the fact that Tom Brady has never even had a day like the one Cam had, and Brady goes out there and lights up the Dolphins for half a G on Monday Night Football.

Anyway, with that kind of play in the opening week, who knows what the hell we can expect out of Week 2? Oh yeah, we do!

Here are your fantasy football projections for Week 2 of the 2011 NFL season.

Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons
If Jay Cutler can complete 68% of his passes for 312 yards and toss 2 touchdowns against the Atlanta Falcons, so can Michael Vick in his first return to Atlanta as a starter. If you don’t think Vick is jacked for this game, you have got to be out of your mind. Not to mention, Andy Reid let Vick throw a touchdown pass last time out against Atlanta, so just imagine how much Reid is willing to do to let Vick walk out of Atlanta with a huge performance behind him. Oh, it’s going to be a crazy day for Vick, who had just another mediocre 100 and 100 against the Rams last week. Expect him to step it up against what appears to be a very undisciplined Chicago Bears defense that surrendered 5 passing plays of 20+ yards on Sunday.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers
My man Dan LeBatard (and I pick on him because I love him), immediately went on the air and declared Aaron Rodgers the best quarterback in the NFL after last week’s amazing performance in the NFL kick-off game. Problem is, Rodgers’ performance barely cracked the top 10 in terms of yardage, as he was just one of ten guys to get 300 or more yards in the NFL’s opening week. Quarterbacks like Mark Sanchez, Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan had better days than Rodgers yardage-wise last week, but don’t expect that continue. In Fantasy Football Week 2, Rodgers faces the same Carolina defense that gave up 309 passing yards and 2 touchdowns to Kevin Kolb a week ago. So trust me when I say this, Rodgers ain’t no Kevin Kolb…if you know what I’m saying.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans
Talk about a beat down of major proportions, the Ravens handed the Pittsburgh Steelers their player cards on Sunday. Flacco had a mundane 224 passing yards through the air, but he also threw for 3 touchdowns and never threw an interception. The addition of some speedy guys around Anquan Boldin seems to have opened up the field for both Anquan and running back Ray Rice. And if the field is more open for those guys, that means the field is more susceptible to Flacco’s rocket for an arm. Entering Week 2, we want to amend last week’s fantasy football projections, when we had Flacco among the “do not starts” for the week. All I can say is, “sorry about that.” Having said that, you have all the chance in the world to eek out some of what you missed out points-wise by starting Flacco against a week Baltimore defense.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Well, look who came to play some football this season? I’m not talking about the oft-injured Matthew Stafford, I’m talking about the Detroit Lions. They managed to eek out a win against everybody’s overrated favorites, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Perhaps Stafford’s 305 passing yards and 3 touchdowns will cause some people to curb their enthusiasm for this Bucs team. That yardage total will also make a lot of fantasy football players rethink their depth charts for the rest of the season. Personally, I don’t know that Stafford is a guy you play every week, especially with Chicago and Green Bay in his division. However, with the right matchup, Stafford can deliver big time production. And in Fantasy Football Week 2 against the Kansas City Chiefs, who just lost their starting safety for the season, isn’t this a great time to reap the rewards for drafting him in the first place?

This is a very interesting game New England and Miami in Week 1 of Monday Night Football. First and foremost is that this is a division matchup that really could set the tone for the how the AFC East is won. Most people do not expect the Miami Dolphins to stand a chance in this Monday Night Football game, but nobody thought they would beat the Patriots before the “Wildcat Game” either, so anything is possible in a division matchup.

This is also a Monday Night Football game being played in Week 1 of the season. Whenever you have that scenario, the home team is practically undefeated against the spread. Thus, all of these 7-point spreads across the multiple gambling sites are likely to be under fire in the waning moments of the fourth quarter, making this a closer game than most people had expected.

Last but not least, we have two key new faces on the New England Patriots roster. We have Chad Johnson on the offensive side of the ball, poised to be the Patriots most dependable wideout. And we also have Albert Haynesworth on the defense, which could make this one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.

With those thoughts in mind, let’s talk about the fantasy football projections for some of this game’s most notable names.

New England Patriots
Tom Brady, Quarterback
Brady has certainly had his way with the Miami Dolphins in the past, but he has seen his share of difficult games against this team too. The Dolphins will certainly be up for this game, which would usually lead me to believe that they could keep Brady under wraps, if not keep him below his averages in the passing game. However, Brady has a brand new weapon with Chad Johnson on the outside, giving him a reliable #1 wide receiver that can change the very way he goes through his progressions. And if Johnson starts to draw the attention of the defense, you can rest assure that he will find his myriad of other wide receivers and running backs for those catch and run plays that he and the Patriots offense run so well.
Fantasy Football Projection: 24 fantasy points

Ben Jarvus-Green-Ellis, Running Back
The “Law Firm” will have his work cut out for him against the Miami Dolphins front 7. The Dolphins got rid of Channing Crowder and now have Kevin Burnett taking over the strong side, middle-linebacker position. However, with the threat of the Patriots passing game on his side, it’s hard to imagine the Dolphins loading up the box too often or having all seven of their box players in the game for the majority of the plays. Thus, expect Jarvus-Green-Ellis to have a very high yards-per-carry average. Whether he has a high number of yards is dependent upon how many carries the Patriots actually give him.
Fantasy Football Projections: 11 points

Wes Welker, Wide Receiver
Welker is Tom Brady’s go-to receiver—or is he? With the arrival of Chad Johnson, it is possible that we see more and more of Welker’s short yardage passes go to Johnson for the higher ROI intermediate passes. Even if that’s the case though, third and short will always be Welker’s specialty, and till this day, Welker remains the best wide receiver in the NFL that does not get doubled-team, so he always has some value.
Fantasy Football Projections: 8 fantasy points

Chad Johnson, Wide Receiver
Maybe I’m putting too much stock in Chad Johnson’s abilities, but it would seem to me that he is bound for an explosive year under Tom Brady. Yes, Brady has many options at the wide receiver position, but none of them have the proven ceiling that Johnson has exhibited. Johnson does struggle a little bit more with press coverage than he use to, but that’s only against the elite cornerbacks. The Dolphins do not have what would label an elite cornerback, (sorry Vontae Davis) so I’m not concerned about him this game nor any game that’s not against Darrelle Revis or Nnamdi Asomugha.
Fantasy Football Projection: 12 points

Miami Dolphins
Chad Henne, Quarterback
Henne is probably the most disliked athlete in Miami sports right now. I’m not sure why though, especially since he has probably overachieved for what most people would expect out of a second round quarterback. For whatever reason though, the Dolphins organization believes he is the future of the franchise, and the fans have consequently revolted. That being said, he will not get off to a great start in Fantasy Football Week 1. The Patriots defense may not be as imposing at it once was, but it’s probably good enough to prepare for Henne in Week 1. Expect very limited playcalling from the Dolphins as they try to protect the football and harness Henne—yet again.
Fantasy Football Projection: 14 points

Reggie Bush, Running Back
Is Reggie Bush the answer at running back for the Dolphins? Probably not. Manny thought it might be rookie running back Daniel Thomas, but he had a very disappointing preseason. Bush on the other hand, showed the explosiveness we have come to know him for. Whether that works as a full-time starter though, remains to be seen. He should be able to break one or two plays against a Patriots defense that was very lackluster a season ago. So if you have Bush on your fantasy team in Week 1, you might actually have a good play on your hands.
Fantasy Football Projection: 17 points

Brandon Marshall, Wide Receiver
Who knows what the hell to say about Brandon Marshall? The man has gone through a lot physically and mentally, and I’m surprised he is even slated to play this season. That said, he is going to be on the field, and he may be the best wide receiver on both teams this Monday night. Thus, he is going to get a lot of targets, but most of them will be of the short-yardage category. Not to mention, Marshall doesn’t score that many touchdowns, despite being one of the bigger receiving targets in the league. I don’t think that the Dolphins will have enough red zone opportunities to get Marshall the touchdown targets he needs to get that score for you, but the yardage should be there.
Fantasy Football Projection: 8 points

The first week of the 2011 fantasy football season is now upon us. If you had a really good draft in your fantasy football league, chances are you are having trouble deciding on who to play and who to bench.

For example, in one of my fantasy football leagues, I have several running backs that I like, and I have to decide between Fred Jackson and Cedric Benson for the last skill spot on the roster.

What goes into making a choice like that?

Well, taking a look at the fantasy football projection and the matchups can make all the difference in the world.

Here is the 2011 Week 1 edition of “Start’em, Sit’em.”

Start’em – Running Back
Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
I know that it is pretty hard to put a lot of faith in a man that is fresh off five days in jail, where he reported mopped floors and painted walls. To expect someone in that situation to turn around a week later and produce on the football field may be asking a lot. Then again, it is the Browns we are talking about there. The Browns finished 27th against the run last season, and they do not appear to be much better than that headed into this season. Benson’s rushing game will be curbed by whomever the Bengals are starting at quarterback in Week 1, but something tells me that the Browns will still find a way to give up a ton of rushing yards—just as they always do.

Sit’em – Running Back
Fred Jackson, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Jackson’s fantasy football projections for Week 1 are not looking so hot against a Chiefs defense that was pretty good against the run a season ago and will only get better with another year under Romeo Crennel. Besides, it is not as if the Bills rushing game or Fred Jackson’s fantasy performance from last year would suggest that Jackson has a chance at being incredibly productive. Sure, he looks and feels the part of a 1,000-yard rusher, but he makes precious few big plays, only had three 100-yard rushing games, and plays on an offense that isn’t that good and whose strength is their passing game. Listen, I would love to say Jackson is the 2011 fantasy football sleeper pick that everyone wants him to be. Fact is, however, Jackson isn’t a future fantasy sleeper, he’s just a fantasy.

Over the years, I have come to less and less emphasis on the draft. As a purveyor of fantasy football news, I often exit drafts thinking I have outdone my counterparts. I usually pick up starters know one else even knows, pass on players slated for down seasons, and adjust my fantasy football projections for the exact scoring system I am playing in. And usually, I do all of that better than the leagues I participate in.

However, over the years, I have come to see that much of that goes to waste. When I picked up Dallas Clark last year in the third-round, well before anyone started picking tight ends, it was a steal of a deal, because the credence that particular league gave to receptions made Clark better than some of the top five wide receivers. Of course, as you all know, Clark was rendered useless after he suffered a season-ending knee injury, making my steal of pick nothing but a bust.

So how important is the draft? Well, after losing Clark, I still managed to get second place in that league. Picking up Vick, Jacob Tamme and Danny Amendola off the wire is what turned my fantasy football prospects from shit to sugar. The draft, while obviously being a big part of my final roster, wasn’t well represented in the starting lineup.

So as I sit here today, I don’t know how important coming out on top of your draft is to you winning your league. By no means am I saying it has no effect, and I certainly do not think you all should turn to auto drafting for the rest of your lives, but you can overcome a bad draft and underutilize a good draft if you do not know what you’re doing. And knowing that, I think I have officially changed my approach to draft.

My new approach is to stockpile talent. Forget about getting the best players available, filing out my roster and getting the big fantasy names that I know can help me win my fantasy football league—I want talent. So this year, when drafting in my Gold Dinner league for the fifth straight season, I am going after depth, not elite status.

This approach isn’t as crazy as it seems—especially if you’re talking about your typical snake draft. In that scenario, all it would mean is passing on the high-upside guy and going with the known producer. So there would be now way in hell that I would draft Michael Vick, but Aaron Rodgers would be a surefire pick. And if I were going for talent at the wide receiver position, the guy with the most targets and most catches would surpass any notion I had of drafting some upstart wide receiver or even a fleeting player like Calvin Johnson.

However, I am not in a snake draft. I am in an auction draft. That’s right. The Gold Dinner League, for the first time in its history, is going “auction” on them boys!

So with this new “stockpile” fantasy football drafting method I am taking on, how exactly do I plan to implement it in an auction draft?

Here it goes…

Essentially, it comes down to points per dollar. Our league will be drafting in an ESPN league, so I have access to the average value of each player as well as ESPN’s projected stats on each player. While I certainly convey a dissimilar viewpoint from many of ESPN’s fantasy projections, using them for the basis of assigning a points/dollar figure to each player is the best way to do this initially. I can then take those facts and adjust my drafting strategy on a case by case basis.

I have calculated the points per dollar for each of the top 200 highest valued players in ESPN’s auction drafts. Obviously, the numbers themselves have little relevance, since a player drafted for 1 dollar in an auction will have incredible value over somebody who is worth $40. How I use the numbers, however, is to compare like players. So for example, if Calvin Johnson is on the board, I can look at my chart and see that he usually gets sold for $36, is projected to score 257 fantasy points for a return of 7.08 points per dollar spent. From there, I would look at range of people in Johnson’s league, so wide receivers that will score anywhere from 220 points to 300 points. In that range are Andre Johnson (6.56), Roddy White (7.15), Greg Jennings (7.31), Larry Fitzgerald (8.62), Hakeem Nicks (9.22) and so on and so forth. In all likelihood, I would decide that I can get much higher value for money from guys like Nicks, Andre or even Vincent Jackson, and limit my bidding on Johnson.

As you can see, the values wind up telling me to go after Andre as opposed to Calvin, so this strategy still leaves the potential to get the big name stars.

Anyway, that’s how I will be going by my drafting this year…doing my best to stockpile value over elite talent and see where it gets me. I will let you all know how it goes once Week 1 is all said and done. Until next week…

ESPN Fantasy Football came out with their fantasy football rankings long ago. But changes have occurred, injuries have been had and contracts have been signed. And with those occurrences, come changes to fantasy football projections.

So, for the latest fantasy football rankings, we take a look at ESPN’s Eric Karabell’s top players at the running back position, as of Labor Day Weekend.

1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
Adrian Peterson has never finished first in fantasy football points, but he routinely enters the season as the best prospect. Maybe this is the year he leaves with the crown. One thing is for certain, the Vikings will move away from the pass-happy offense they stressed while Brett Favre was there, and will return to relying on Adrian Peterson—even more so than they did when AD first joined the franchise. So expect more carries, more yards and possibly even more involvement in the passing game. One thing I would be concerned about is Peterson’s propensity for touchdowns this season. Unless Donovan McNabb can turn this offense around and be the player he used to be, I am not sure how potent this Vikings offense can be. If it staggers, Peterson’s touchdown potential will stagger, and you cannot select a running back with touchdown concerns at the #1 position.

2. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans
To be honest, Chris Johnson is not even among my top three running back projections for the season. However, it has little to do with him and a lot to do with the team he plays for. If Johnson’s offensive line can’t step up their play from a year ago, Johnson is destined for another sub-par season—by his standards. The installation of a new head coach and offense does not increase the chances of this o-line stepping its game up. And Matt Hasselbeck is more than a downgrade from Vince Young—at least from a running game perspective, as Young’s rollout ability helped Johnson make a lot of those cutbacks that helped him break 2,000 rushing yards back in 2009. It suffices to say, I don’t like Chris Johnson’s team this year, which makes it really hard for me to like Chris Johnson. What he does have going for him is that he has one of the easiest schedules there is for a running back this season. The schedule along makes him a top 5 running back prospect, but he’s still not better than my top three, Foster, Peterson and Mendenhall.

3. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs relied so much on the run last season that it was almost scary. In 2011, it’s hard to believe we will see the same approach. First of all, they have a new offensive coordinator, and while the offensive scheme won’t change much, you can bet that the play-calling will. That would lead me to believe that the Chiefs will back away from running the ball as much as they did last season, when they were the #1 rushing team in the NFL. Instead, they will take to the passing game as a way to increase their level of play on offense and compete with the elite teams in the league. Besides, another year with Matt Cassel should lead to more faith in their franchise quarterback. And while Thomas Jones will likely take even more of a backseat in 2011, I just do not see how the touches will be there for Charles to produce at the same levels he did a season ago. But I’m not going to get too crazy here. Charles is still a bona fide top 10 running back this season, and I expect him to do very well. But putting him ahead of guys like Rice, Foster and even Michael Turner seems pretty risky to me.

4. Arian Foster, Houston Texans
A few weeks ago, I had Arian Foster as my top running back entering the 2011 fantasy football season. However, the fact that Foster suffered a knee injury in the preseason that may cause him to miss Week 1 has raised some concerns. Who wants to draft or own a player that enters the season hobbling with a knee injury? Lord knows that owners of Maurice Jones-Drew already learned their lesson a season ago, when Jones-Drew’s knee injury hurt them early and late in the season, likely costing most people any real shot at their fantasy football league’s championship. Thus, I can certainly understand Karabell dropping Foster to the #4 spot in his ESPN Fantasy Football Rankings.

5. Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens
I am a big Ray Rice fan and certainly believe that he is well worth being ranked among the top five running backs in fantasy football. The fact that he can run it and catch it out of the backfield means you are very unlikely to get a bad game from Rice all season long. And that was more or less the case throughout the past fantasy football season, as Rice scored 9 or more fantasy points in 12 of his 16 games. However, Rice did under-perform from a touchdown perspective, as he managed just six touchdowns in 2010. But with vulture-back Willis McGahee gone, Rice will presumably get all of the Ravens goal line touches. That should give him at least 3 or 4 more scores for the season. Additionally, the acquisition of wide receiver Lee Evans opens up the running game and short passing game for Rice, as Evans can certainly stretch the defense, allowing Rice to get more opportunities in the open field.

Rounding out Karabell’s top 10 fantasy football running backs:
6. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars
8. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers
9. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons
10. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

With Chris Johnson back on the roster for the Tennessee Titans, many of you want to know exactly what his prospects are for the 2011 fantasy football season. One would have to think that the Titans are going to rely on him immensely after giving him a $14 million a year contract, the kind of contract that NFL running backs have never seen before.

Well, rest assure, Chris Johnson is going to be the focal point of the offense, however, we did not need a contract to know that. Just looking at the Titans quarterbacks this preseason should have told everyone that there was no way the Titans were going to allow Johnson to miss a single snap, never mind an entire game. Between Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker, they don’t have a quarterback that could throw in the ocean, so they certainly do not have one that can become the focus of the offense.

That said, not having Johnson in the backfield probably made each of their jobs a little bit harder. Without Chris Johnson, the Titans opponents have no reason to respect the running game, which meant Locker and Hasselbeck dealt with extra coverage in their passing progressions all preseason long.

So what happens when Johnson finally does get back on the field?

Well, starting with what we know from last season, the rushing yards will not come easy. While some people are very bullish on Chris Johnson, the lack of quarterback consistency combined with an offensive line that is barely average, I am finding it hard to put a lot of faith in Chris Johnson as a fantasy prospect.

That said, the schedule sure does favor Johnson. In the first four weeks of the season, Johnson plays the Jaguars, Broncos and the Browns, all teams that finished 22nd or worse against the run, and none of them did anything significant this off-season to get much better at it.

The second quarter worth of games for the Titans includes three straight home games against the Texans, Colts and Bengals. Granted, the Texans have new defensive coordinator Wade Philips at the helm, but with the installation of a new 3-4 defense on 4-3 team, their could still be mental hurdles that prevent the Texans defense from stopping the run at a high level. And did I mention that all three of those games, against those miserable defenses, are at home? Well, I said it twice then!

The third quarter of games for Johnson includes the rushing defenses of the Panthers and the Bills, defenses ranked 23rd and 32nd a season ago. Johnson should have no problem getting three or four games worth of yardage and fantasy points in those two games alone. The Tampa Bay defense, also included in this four-game stretch, was ranked just 28th against the run a season ago, but figures to be a little better this season. The last of the four teams in this run is Atlanta, an unquestionably tough run-stopping team, but the presence of those three teams make not make this game all that detrimental to you in Week 11.

For the home stretch in Weeks 14 through 16, when you are in your fantasy football league’s postseason, the Titans only face one decent run defense—the New Orleans Saints, and that game is in week 14. It suffices to say, that I would love to have Chris Johnson on my fantasy team, with two weeks to play and the Colts and the Jaguars on my schedule. It’s hard to believe that could end badly for anyone.

However, while the schedule just seems stacked in favor of Chris Johnson, it is hard to believe that things will be as easy as they seem. Defenses will focus on him, unless Matt Hasselbeck can get the ball out to Kenny Britt and Nate Washington. The Titans defense is horrible against the pass, so who knows how long the Titans will be able to stick with the run game throughout the season. And this is also a brand new offense with a brand new coach—the learning curve here could be monumental, especially for an offensive line without much talent.

The schedule says Chris Johnson is a top three fantasy football running back, but all of the other circumstances say he is destined for a season worse than the one he had last season. At the end of the day though, as with all things in life, the fantasy football projections for Chris Johnson are probably somewhere in the middle. So don’t put Johnson ahead of our three favorites, Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson and Rashard Mendenhall. However, I think his schedule is weak enough to put Johnson ahead of guys as highly touted as Jamaal Charles, Ray Rice and Maurice Jones-Drew.

Fantasy football projections for the first week of the NFL season shouldn’t factor too much into your fantasy draft—but it doesn’t hurt to have that knowledge. Especially at the quarterback position, where there is only 1 or 2 quarterbacks that stands out above the rest.

So which quarterbacks fit that mold in Week 1? And which ones are no where near being viable options for the starting week?

Here are some of our fantasy football projections for Week 1 of the season at the quarterback position.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints
Aaron Rodgers is coming off one of the most spectacular quarterback postseason performances in the history of the NFL. I fully expect him to pick up right where he left off in Week 1 against the Saints. Sure, the Saints were the fourth best defense in the league against the pass as season ago, but much of that had to do with the competition they faced. The Saints only played a prolific quarterback (defined by 4,000 yards passing or more) on three occasions last season. Now enter Aaron Rodgers, who is the definition of prolific, and I think we will see a whole new tune from that defense. Besides, with the options at his side, including a healthy Jermichael Finley, Rodgers is going to pick apart any offense that gives him time, the Saints are without their best pass rusher, Will Smith, in Week 1.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Talk about prime for the picking. Was there ever a better opportunity for a coming out party of the new Patriots offense than on Monday Night football from Miami? Expect Brady and that offense to be at full-speed in the opener. A lot of people are concerned about them given their performance against the Detroit Lions in Week 3 of the NFL preseason, but I warn that you take very little from the preseason—especially when it comes to the masters of deceit (i.e. Spygate). With the newly acquired Chad Johnson to throw to, and his usual stable of pass-catching tight ends, Brady has all the weapons he will need to go after a pass defense that has weaknesses all over the field.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
If you are a Joe Flacco owner and believer, then you might want to read this. He is not going to produce for you in Week 1. Then again, if you really are a believer in him, then you already knew that. Flacco’s games against the Pittsburgh Steelers have not been good over the years. Just last season, Flacco threw for a mere 647 passing yards in three games against the Steelers. Blame it on the vaunted Steelers pass rush, Flacco’s limited weapons, or whatever other excuses he may have had, but at the end of the day, the difference between the Ravens losing to the Steelers in the playoffs and playing for the Super Bowl, was the play of their quarterback. Flacco could turn that around this season, especially as Lee Evans joins the team to help spread the field and loosen the Pittsburgh defense up. But if you ask me, Flacco’s success in Week 1 is not something you want to bet opening week on. Thus, I recommend you bench Flacco if you have the option of doing so.

For more Week 1 fantasy football projections for the 2011 season, check out some of the articles below.

Yahoo Fantasy Football is allowing you, the fan, to contribute to their weekly rankings!

Actually, only you (and the thousands of others that contribute) will be a part of their weekly ranking system that is designed to determine the players most favored to start on fantasy rosters for a particular week. This should give you a very good idea of who the best players are that week, the difficulty of your players’ matchups, and who the fantasy football sleepers are at each position.

In this post, we tackle Yahoo Fantasy Football’s Week 1 running back rankings, which again, show us who the most favored players are among Yahoo’s superior fantasy football community.

1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers, 95.33%
In the battle for best fantasy football running back in the league, Adrian Peterson appears to be the favorite entering Fantasy Football Week 1. We at TheSportsWatchers.com actually think Arian Foster is the better option this week, but we will get into in a second. Having said that, Peterson does have his work cut out for him against San Diego. This Chargers defense was the best in the NFL last season, and they achieved that ranking despite being put in many a bad situation and with several injuries. Peterson, on the other hand, may find himself the subject of the opposing defense if Donovan McNabb doesn’t get the passing game going. And that too will be difficult against the well-designed secondary of the Chargers. I’m not sure why the rest of the Yahoo fantasy football community believes in Peterson so much this week, but so be it.

2. Arian Foster, Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts, 91.38%
Foster is our pick for the #1 spot this week, but Yahoo went with Peterson. The argument for Foster, however, is a very easy one. He’s going up against the Indianapolis Colts, one of the worst rushing defenses in the league. The Colts finished 25th against the rush last year, allow an average of 127 rushing yards per game. Foster might have that in the first half of this contest, especially if the Colts can’t find a way to hold on to the ball san Peyton Manning. Seriously, with possibly no Manning to control the clock for Colts, it’s highly probable that Foster gets a boat load of carries and fantasy points in Week 1.

3. LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams, 91.14%
To this point in his career, LeSean McCoy is reminding us of Brian Westbrook. He’s not quite the receiver that Westbrook was, but he is more than capable of running crossing and flat routes while separating from linebackers. He has proven himself to Mike Vick, and so far in the preseason, McCoy has gotten his fair share of targets. That pass-catching ability could doom the Rams defense, which is very strong on the defensive live but lacks enough athleticism at the linebacker position to keep up with McCoy. Expect the Eagles to take advantage of that early on in the game, and when the Rams bring in the extra defensive back to account for him, McCoy should be able to excel in the rushing game. Either way, the Rams will have to pick their poison, and according to the fantasy football community, you need to make sure you pick LeSean McCoy for Week 1.

4. Jamaal Charles, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills, 91.14%
Despite proving his explosive ability over the past two seasons, many people haven’t talked about Jamaal Charles in the lead up to the start of the NFL fantasy football season. But talk is cheap, because the man sure is being drafted and accounted for, and his 91% vote on Yahoo shows that. However, given the situation, Charles should probably have a 100% positive rating. After all, he is going up against the Buffalo Bills, which maintained the NFL’s worst rushing defense last season. That’s right, the Bills were 32nd, dead last, numero zero! They couldn’t stop the run any better if they had an actually Buffalo playing defensive tackle for them. So expect Charles to run wild in Week 1, as we don’t anticipate much resistance from this Buffalo defense.

5. Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, 88.11%
You know The Sports Watchers are very bullish on Rashard Mendenhall this season. In fact, we think he is the third best running back entering the 2011 fantasy football season. The Yahoo Fantasy Football community must think highly of him too though—maybe higher than we do! As good a season as Mendenhall could potentially have, we don’t exactly have him breaking records against the Baltimore Ravens. In fact, I would venture to say that the positive outlook on Mendenhall in Week 1 is misplaced. Sure, it’s the first week of the season, and Baltimore could be as bad as anyone in their first week out—but I doubt it. The Ravens were the fifth best run-stopping team in the league, and I don’t see them relinquishing such high marks so early on in the season. Besides, part of me believes Mendenhall still has nightmares from that hit Ray Lewis laid on him, effectively ending Mendenhall’s rookie season.

Rounding out the top ten:
6. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars, 88.07%
7. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans, 87.84%
8. LeGarrette Blount, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions, 87.80%
9. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 86.84%
10. Peyton Hillis, Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals, 86.81%

ESPN has updated their top ten quarterbacks for the 2011 fantasy football season. So who do they have at the top, and which guys are borderline starters in your 10-man fantasy football league? Let’s take a look at the ESPN fantasy football rankings and their top 10 quarterbacks.

1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
There is very little surprise here. While Mike Vick is probably the uncontested per game producer at the quarterback position, ESPN’s fantasy football experts, and most of the rest of the NFL-viewing audience, do not appear to trust Vick’s ability to stay healthy. As a result, Aaron Rodgers is considered the “safe” pick at the quarterback position this season.

Of course, for a “safe” pick, he’s pretty damn good. Besides, there are two things we know he’s going to do better than Mike Vick does: throw for more passing yards and throw for more touchdowns. Maybe Vick can compete in the latter category, but the first is not up for debate. Vick’s advantage comes with his feet, but it really isn’t that grand of an advantage. Rodgers is probably going to rush for 300+ yards this season, while Vick is projected get over 600 yards. That’s an average difference of less than 2 fantasy points per game. As big a fan as I am of Vick, I can’t argue with anyone who says Rodgers is the #1 quarterback entering the 2011 fantasy football season.

2. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles
I know I just made a lot of arguments against Michael Vick, but here are a few in favor of drafting everybody’s comeback player of the year. Vick has more of a propensity to give you 30 fantasy points than any other player in the entire NFL. Best of all, he’s a sure-fire thing to go off against bad defenses, of which there are at least two in the NFC East alone. As good as Aaron Rodgers is, Vick is going to win you more games single-handedly, and he’s not as big of an injury-risk as he was last year, now that he enters the season as the unquestioned starter. That said, there was a good piece on ESPN about how Vick is very unlikely to replicate his throwing numbers from a season ago. If that’s the case, and we saw it to some degree against Pittsburgh in Preseason Game #2, Vick could be a risky pick. But if you don’t take risks in fantasy football, how are you ever going to take them in real life?

3. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
This is a very interesting selection by ESPN’s fantasy football experts. Most fantasy football sites have Tom Brady in their top three along with Vick and Rodgers. But ESPN appears to be down on the NFL’s reigning MVP. So why is Drew Brees ahead of Brady? Apparently, ESPN expects Drew Brees to throw the hell out of the ball. They have Brees attempting 597 passes and going for 4,500 passing yards. That’s certainly well within the range of possibilities for Brees, but it’s the interceptions we have to worry about when Brees is throwing the ball that often. ESPN doesn’t think they will be that much of a problem in relation to how much he produces, and thus, he’s ahead of the pretty boy from New England.

4. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Speaking of the pretty boy, Tom Brady is ESPN’s fourth ranked quarterback in fantasy football. I suppose the lack of a deep threat is what limits Brady’s potential to be the #1 guy in fantasy football. However, the surprising thing about ESPN’s ranking of Brady is not his production, but the mistakes they have projected him to make. Brady threw just four interceptions a season ago, and ESPN is basically saying that occurrence involved a crap load of luck. And they’re right, there were a lot of situations in which Brady didn’t get picked when probably should have been. Still, to take him from four interceptions a season ago to the 10 ESPN has projected him to throw this year is a bit interesting. I don’t know if Brady will throw that many, 7 or 8 would have been more to my liking. But hey, they’re the experts.

5. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
The man that led the NFL’s best offense a season ago is now among the top five quarterbacks as ranked by ESPN’s fantasy football experts. ESPN Fantasy Football really doesn’t have Rivers doing anything special—except throwing for 4,700 passing yards! That would be pretty damn amazing, but again, it’s quite likely—maybe even understated? Rivers already eclipsed the 4,700 yard mark last season, so that number is already in the bag. But throw in the fact that Rivers had a rookie running back on the field, didn’t have Vincent Jackson and lost Antonio Gates for the last month of the season, and one has to wonder just what the limit is for Rivers during the 2011 fantasy football season. Did somebody say the sky?

Rounding out the top 10 quarterbacks on ESPN’s fantasy football rankings:

6. Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts
7. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
8. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
9. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
10. Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

It’s a wide receiver’s world! With all due respect to those of you interested in drafting a running back with your first overall pick, here’s a word of fantasy football advice: think!

Don’t’ get me wrong, you still take Adrian Peterson or Arian Foster over any wide receiver this season, just purely on the production alone. However, once you get down to that second tier of running backs, you better start considering another option. Naturally, a quarterback is one way to go, especially Michael Vick’s hyped, yet skeptical, return to greatness. However, a wide receiver may be the way.

Running backs are not what they used to be in terms of depth. It used to be that you needed a stud running back to win fantasy football leagues. Now, there are only a few studs, causing many of you to have to make tough choices. Remember, for every Mike Vick positive projection out there, there’s a Tom Brady blown out knee in Week 1 nightmare that I can tell. So trust the wide receiver position. You will have to do you homework to get a good, consistent, pass-catcher, but it will be well worth it.

Anyway, enough chatter, here are our Week 1 fantasy football predictions:

Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
This is the third Pittsburgh Steeler I have covered for Week 1, and he is also the Steeler with the most questions entering this season. Last year, we saw the unbelievable explosiveness out of Wallace, as he was the NFL’s most productive wide receiver on a per catch basis. However, with Hines Ward slowing down, this is Wallace’s turn to move into more of a possession receiver role. The Steelers want to know whether this guy can be a go-to wide receiver before they pay him the big bucks. So they will give him chances, and he should see a lot more than the 100 targets he saw a season ago. Of course, he will still run the “nines” and the “post routes” to give you instant offense and quick fantasy football points, but there should be even more value in Wallace this season, as he gets more footballs coming his way.

My fantasy football prediction: Mike Wallace turns into more of a possession wide receiver. Much like Santonio Holmes transformation in Pittsburgh from speedster to all-around guy, Wallace’s athleticism should allow him to propel his game to next level and move him even further up the fantasy football rankings in 2011.

Devin Hester, Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Devin Hester is not a dependable wide receiver. With all due respect, I’m not sure what in the hell Lovie Smith and the Bears organization are trying to do by making him that. Hester is Desmond Howard at his best, and I don’t see the potential for him to become much more. Among the 62 wide receivers with at least 74 targets (the number Hester had last season), only four wide receivers had less than 500 yards. Those receivers were great, household names like Brandon LaFell, Laurent Robinson, Mohamed Massaquoi and the great Devin Hester. Not exactly murderer’s row of wide receivers, huh? Hester’s silver lining is that he will give you the occasional touchdown, via kick or pass, every other game, but that doesn’t hold much value in fantasy football. I know that I am putting up the straw man here by saying that Hester is not going to succeed at wide receiver, but believe it or not, I see this guy starting across a multitude of fantasy football leagues all the time. Thus, I thought I would get out in front of it and let it be known: you do not play Hester in your lineup for any other reason than you like throwing fantasy football leagues.

My fantasy football prediction: Somebody reading this completely disagrees with me and sees a golden opportunity for Hester against the Atlanta Falcons secondary in Week 1.

Fantasy football predictions are like butt holes—everyone has one. And you can bet your “bottoms” that we have some of our own too. However, despite what you may have heard about other butt-hole opinions, we actually know what we are talking about—or at least that’s what we tell ourselves.

Here are our Week 1 fantasy football predictions at the running back position.

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
This game has the potential to be yet another knock-down, drag-out fight between two football teams that have been the symbol of NFL rivalry for the past decade. Often times, rushing yards are hard to come by in this game, because both squads are used to carrying 400-pound defensive tackles and Pro Bowl linebackers to the field every week. NFL Week 1 is no different, as the Ravens try to avenge a tough playoff lost that could have had a hand in sending Ray Lewis back to the Super Bowl. But I digress, because this post is about Rashard Mendenhall. In my opinion, he is one of the best bets in fantasy football this season. Sure, you can put all of your money on Chris Johnson and Ray Rice if you want to, but with the changes in the Ravens offenses, and the improved offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers, I really prefer Mendenhall’s chances at a steady, solid season rushing the football. Naturally, Week 1 is going to be rough for him, just like it would be for any other running back facing Ray Lewis and the Baltimore Ravens. But as the season progresses, you will quickly find out, that Rashard Mendenhall’s game will trump many a premier running back during the 2011 fantasy football season.

My fantasy football prediction: Rashard Mendenhall will finish among the top five running backs in fantasy football points this season.

Reggie Bush, Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots
Dan LeBatard made a great comment on the Dolphins acquisition of Reggie Bush. He said that had the New England Patriots acquired Reggie Bush, the entire league would fear the mere threat of how a genius like Bill Belichick would deploy a player of Bush’s speed and athleticism. But alas, he signed with the Dolphins, and in this post-Kardashian-Humphries nuptials world, Bush’s chances at success with the Dolphins are about the same as his chances at getting back together with Kim Kardashian. The Dolphins sure will throw him the ball though. Their quarterback, Chad Henne, is notorious for being the best quarterback in NFL history at throwing the check-down. It’s not sexy, it’s not flashy and it doesn’t win teams a whole lot of games, but the pass to Bush over the middle of the field will yield some big plays for the former Trojan.

My fantasy football prediction: While Reggie Bush will not be worth starting in your average fantasy football league, he will be a great for spot duty when the Dolphins have the right matchup—including a game against the young New England Patriots defense, which may be as prime for the picking in Week 1 as they will ever be this season.

There are many things to worry about during the 2011 fantasy football season. Tight ends might not be what they used to be. Running backs are at a premium. And this appears to be the year that a lot of people are realizing that drafting a wide receiver in the first round could win them a fantasy football league.

And you know what else has changed? We discuss that in our 2011 fantasy football predictions for Week 1.

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Truth be told, I do not know if this all-time great fantasy football quarterback is going to step on the field in Week 1. He is fresh of neck surgery, which he was not able to treat in a fashion he would have liked to during the lockout. Now the guy we know to be the NFL’s iron man of quarterbacking is slated to miss the entire preseason. It is something we would not have been worried about in the past, but with Manning’s increasing age, ever so light drop in consistency, and the unproductive lockout, it is hard to gauge just when Peyton Manning will be Peyton Manning this season—if he’s every Peyton Manning this season. You have to remember, Peyton is one of the most prepared guys in the NFL, and because of his surgery and a lockout, he wasn’t able to prepare. We saw two years ago what a late-to-practice Manning looked like. I doubt we will see anything different during the 2011 NFL season.

My Fantasy Football Prediction: Peyton Manning finishes outside of the top six quarterbacks in fantasy football points PER GAME due to a very slow start.

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
Drew Brees has thrown for a lot of yards in his career, but last year, he was particularly inefficient. Brees needed all of 658 passes to get to the 4,620-yard mark last season. And of the quarterbacks that threw for 4,000 or more yards last season, only Eli Manning threw more interceptions. It’s quite possible that NFL head coaches are figuring Brees and the Saints offense out. They have been quite the novelty over the years, but as we saw in last year’s playoff game against the Seahawks, there appears to be a strategy out there that will slow down Brees & Co. It doesn’t help that Brees wide receiving core isn’t exactly improving. Lance Moore and Marques Colston are dependable, but together, are not as effective as they used to be. Robert Meachem is the Saints next best wide receiver, but he has proven to be more a product of the system than an explosive wide receiver himself. In Fantasy Football Week 1, Brees faces off against a Packers defense that was among the best in the NFL last season. A unit that was especially good at the cornerback position and should be able to take much of the wide receiver play out of this week’s game. Call it what you will, home field advantage, Super Bowl homecoming or a combination of the both, but I don’t envision that Saints passing attack coming into Lambeau Field and producing at a high level—especially when coaches seemed to have figure out how to slow down Drew Brees.

My Fantasy Football Prediction: Drew Brees has a rough start to the season against the Packers. More importantly, smarter defenses and a tough schedule cause Brees’ inefficiency to be worse than last year’s.

Fantasy football predictions are harder than every in Week 1. We have yet to see these newly constructed teams play together. We don’t know what new plays and schemes the coaches are planning on implementing for the season. And with the extended NFL lockout we just went through, I’m not afraid to admit that I still don’t know which team everybody plays for anymore.

That said, defenses are the most difficult thing to predict in fantasy football. Who knows when a defense is gong to be dominant and when it’s going to be horrible? On paper, every team makes the required adjustments to fix their defense, and I can’t tell if a new cornerback can play football until I have seen him play football. With all of that as a disclaimer to what is about to follow, here are our 2011 fantasy football predictions for two of the NFL’s most interesting defenses.

Indianapolis Colts Defense at Houston Texans
The Houston Texans are going to be one of the most productive offenses in the NFL this season. From the looks of preseason, it isn’t going to take them too long to get the offense rolling either. Already, Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are doing their thing in preseason football, and Arian Foster looks like he has yet to slow down from his rushing championing campaign from a season ago. That all adds up to one hell of a difficult day for the Colts defense, which has routinely been eaten up by the Texans’ passing attack. Often, the Colts saving grace is Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis coming off the edge to put pressure on the opposing quarterback, but with a rushing attack like that of the Texans, it may be hard for either of them to commit too hard to rushing the passer. Furthermore, who knows what the hell Peyton Manning is going to play like in Week 1? He can’t play in the preseason and he’s questionable for this very game. If he’s not on the field, you can trust the Colts defense will see a lot more playing time. And the longer they’re in the game, the more points the Texans will eventually score.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense vs. Detroit Lions
The Buccaneers have their work cut out for them in NFL Fantasy Football Week 1. They’re #7 ranked pass defense from a year ago will face off against a Detroit Lions passing attack armed with Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew. Each of those guys is very talented and has the ability to hurt a young defense like the Buccaneers on their own. But throw in the mistake prone defense of youngin’s like DT Gerald McCoy, S Cody Grimm and nickelback EJ Biggers, and this Detroit Lions offense could go off. And the Lions are not without ground game either. Jahvid Best could bust the Buccaneers 28th ranked rush defense wide open on a couple of different occasions, making the Lions passing prowess a mute point. So if I were you, I would stay away from starting the Buccaneers defense until we know whether or not these youngin’s have grown up during the off-season.

The tight end position certainly isn’t a sexy one, especially after you get past the league’s perennial favorites in Dallas Clark and Antonio Gates. However, it’s going to be a very interesting fantasy football season at the tight end position, as the two aforementioned pass-catchers appear to have exited their primes and are both coming off of performance debilitating injuries.

With those two stars dissipating from the weekly projections, which guys will step in and take over? Here are our Fantasy Football Predictions for two tight ends we expect to break the mold in Week 1.

Jermichael Finley, Green Bay Packers vs. New Orleans Saints
Jermichael Finley was not a part of the Packers run to the Super Bowl, but Donald Lee looked like his spitting image in his absence. Perhaps it is this simple: no matter who plays tight end for the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers is going to make that guy look like a Pro Bowler. Throw in Finley’s athleticism and height, and what you have is perhaps the NFC’s best tight end in 2011. That is of course dependent on whether Finley is completely healthy. In all likelihood, he won’t be the same for the first couple of weeks, but by mid-season, I expect to see him back to his usual status. In Fantasy Football Week 1, Finley faces off against New Orleans defense devoid of the safeties and linebackers that can adequately cover him. That should result in plenty of targets for Finley and a big day for your fantasy football team if you draft him.

Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Gates is not going to be what he used to be—hell, he may not even be half as good as he used to be. That may be the fantasy football prediction that I eat crow on the most at the end of the season, but it’s what I truly believe. He’s barely capable of playing football with three weeks to go, so I can’t believe that he is going to be a Pro Bowl. To cover my ass though, I will say that Gates will still be more than capable of putting up a big game or two, as he is on the NFL’s second best offense, and defenses have to worry about Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson on the outsides. As a result, Gates is going to have less focus on him than he has ever had since becoming the household name that he is. That said, maybe the fact that Jackson and Floyd are deserving of more attention speaks volumes about where Gates is at this point in his highly-touted football career.

Fantasy football players know one thing is for certain: there is little certainty at the wide receiver position on a week-to-week basis. That is why I especially recommend paying attention to the matchups for wide receivers; otherwise, you may be mindlessly playing the same receiver every week with no regard for the fact that he’s going up against defenses that are going to take said player out of the game.

For example, it makes little sense to play Chad Johnson when he goes against the New York Jets and cornerback Darrelle Revis on two different occasions during the 2011 fantasy football season. Is there a chance Johnson will make a play? Of course! But given their history, I would bet my fantasy football league, and in turn my money, on the fact that Johnson is going to have one of his worse fantasy football weeks when he plays against the New York Jets.

So in Fantasy Football Week 1, I have pointed out a couple of fantasy football players to watch, not just because of their matchups, but because of other extenuating circumstances that could affect how these players produce in Week 1, and throughout the rest of the 2011 fantasy football season.

Miles Austin, Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets
We have already discussed the fact that Tony Romo appears to be a bit of a reclamation project in 2011—a reclamation project with great talent, but a reclamation project nonetheless. Add to that the fact that Dez Bryant enters the 2011 fantasy football season as a starter for the Cowboys, and one has to really begin to wonder what Austin Miles’ value is entering this season. We all know the greatness he has displayed, but that was two seasons ago. Last year, Austin was a mediocre starter, registering just 69 catches and 1,041 receiving yards Not having Romo at the helm for 11 of his football games was certainly a contributor to that, but sow was the fact that Jason Witten and Bryant were stealing targets. Do the Dallas Cowboys have enough footballs to go around, and is Romo more apt to throw it to the bigger, stronger, faster Dez Bryant? It’s something we won’t know until, at the very least, NFL Week 1 is over. Then again, as in our aforementioned example, Austin is going up against Revis in Wee 1, which may render him un-targetable. Of course if that happens, rest assure, Romo will get real comfortable throwing the football elsewhere, and who knows what would ensue in the weeks to come.

Vincent Jackson, San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Unlike Miles Austin and the example of Chad Johnson, there are no concerns when it comes to matchups for Vincent Jackson—he’s too damn big for any cornerback to shut him down. That said; he’s more than capable of shutting himself down, which he did for 11 weeks last year. Vincent was not himself upon returning that late in the season, but he seems to have regained his spectacular form here in the preseason. However, during Jackson’s absence, Malcom Floyd emerged as a deep-threat as well. Will that cut into the long throws that Jackson was so adept at coming down with, or will Philip Rivers go back to the well that led him here? We will know a lot more after Week 1, when the Chargers take on the Minnesota Vikings—a team more than susceptible to the deep ball, which should help us get a really good idea of who the playmaking receiver for this team will be.

There probably is not a running back in fantasy football not worth watching. After all, running backs are the ones most likely to surprise us on any given day at any given moment on any given play. So inherently, you are always watching running backs, because you want to know who you should be aware of entering the fantasy football season and each every week thereafter.

Well, we have two guys that you should pay special attention to in Fantasy Football Week 1. Why? Because we said so—and so did the numbers!

Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
From a pure entertainment standpoint, Chris Johnson is always worth watching. But from a Fantasy Football perspective, he is especially worth watching in Week 1 of the fantasy football season. Many of you have soured on Chris Johnson after his less than stellar 2010 campaign, in he averaged a mere 4.3 yards per carry and compiled 1,364 rushing yards. Still, the promise is there. The question is, “Is his body?” There’s a good chance that Johnson’s amazing 2009 season of over 2,000 rushing yards wore him down. It happens to every running back that eclipses that mark, and he was no different last year, seeing his 5.6 yards per carry average drop 1.3 yards. That’s amazing—and clearly a sign that Johnson was pretty damn tired. However, some of that was also the offense he played for. Without Vince Young there to act as another threat to run the football, teams keyed in on Johnson and turned the NFL’s 2009 best rushing team into the 17th best rushing team in 2010. In 2011, Matt Hasselbeck is the probable starter, and he certainly isn’t going to be a threat to take off with the rock. Can he pass the football well enough to make teams respect the air game and alleviate pressure on Johnson? And even if he can, will Johnson’s body give him that 1.3 yards back that disappeared on a per-carry basis? These are all great questions, ones that are worth looking for answers for in Fantasy Football Week 1.

Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Everyone expected a lot more of Ryan Mathews. And while he failed to live up to last year’s pre-season fantasy football rankings and projections, I must admit; I was not surprised. I’m never surprised when a rookie running back does not live up to the hype. Does history not teach us anything? If Reggie Bush can fail, everyone can fail? If Rashaan Salaam can fail, anyone can fail? And if Ron Dayne can fail to live up to expectations, then certainly, I’m not surprised when it happens to the likes of Ryan Mathews. That said; it’s not too late for the young man to bounce back. You can learn a lot in your rookie season while failing to produce, only to turn around be a productive NFL rusher later in your career. Just ask Arian Foster. Thus, the jury is still out on Ryan Mathews. We know the San Diego Chargers passing game alleviates enough pressure off the ground game for Mathews to be successful, so it really comes down to Mathews making the right cuts, being aggressive at the line of scrimmage and staying in the game on third down. That last concern should be easy enough with Darren Sproles out of the rotation, but Mathews overall game will only succeed if he learns how to become an effective rusher from behind the line of scrimmage. Opening against the Minnesota Vikings front seven will be a good test for the youngster. If he can rush against them, he can rush against anybody in the NFL. If not, well, be weary. Sometimes a bad rookie season is more than just a bad first year; sometimes it is what it is: the start of a bad career.

From a fantasy football perspective, last year was a changing of the guard for quarterbacks. It appears that Aaron Rodgers has vaulted himself to the top of the fantasy football rankings, but Mike Vick was by far the most productive quarterback in the NFL, game for game. That means names like Tom Brady and Peyton Manning got bumped down the totem pole just a little bit. Additionally, a few names that used to be contenders for those top spots fell off a bit.

One guy who comes to mind is Tony Romo.

We discuss him, and new Seattle Seahawk quarterback, Tarvaris Jackson, in our Fantasy Football Week 1 analysis of quarterbacks to watch.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets
Tony Romo was God awful last year. Nevermind the fractured collarbone that ended his season, in his five starts prior to that, the man was 1-4 with an 11:7 touchdown to interception ratio. His only silver lining? He averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt and ha a completion rate of 69%. That’s what makes Tony Romo such an enigma. High passing averages and completion percentages like that are not becoming of bad quarterbacks. Typically, numbers like that are reserved for the Peyton Manning’s and Tom Brady’s of the world, leading us to believe that there is still some glimmer of hope for Tony Romo as an elite fantasy football quarterback in 2011. Besides his own talent, the Dallas Cowboys have put plenty of talent around him. Miles Austin and Dez Bryant are do-it-all receivers, and Jason Witten may be the most uncoverable tight end in the NFC. Unfortunately, in Romo’s haste to get to his favorite targets sometimes, he throws a bewildering number of what Max Kellerman likes to call “fun balls.” Fun balls were the passes Brett Favre used to ridiculously throw for interceptions that often got excused by Favre-apologists as “that’s just Favre having fun.” But if Romo continues his “Favre-ian” ways, he will be destined to same fantasy football status Favre was at throughout his interception-prone years—mid tier.

Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
Believe it or not, Tarvaris Jackson has some talent—or at least the numbers would suggest as much. In a comparison of their short-lived careers, both Kevin Kolb and Tarvaris Jackson post similar numbers in terms of completion percentage, touchdown to interception ratio and quarterback rating. In fact, if you were forced to make a decision on who the better quarterback was, just by looking at the stats, it would appear that Tarvaris is the slightly better quarterback. Now there are some misgivings about those stats. Jackson has thrown nearly twice as many passes as Kolb has in his career, and Jackson also has played the bulk of his time as a starter and not an injury-replacement or mid-season fix as Kolb’s career has been limited to thus far. Still, the numbers shouldn’t be disregarded. Tarvaris’s accuracy and carefulness with the ball are similar to Kolb’s. And the Seattle Seahawks and Pete Carroll definitely saw something in this young man if they were willing to turn the franchise keys over to him. That would lead me to believe that Jackson actually has some chance at being a major fantasy football player this season. If Carroll can ever find out a way to get him some time in the pocket, he may actually be every bit as good as Kevin Kolb is supposed to be. Then again, he may not. But the possibility of it makes Tarvaris Jackson worth watching!

Finding fantasy football sleepers on the defensive side is all about one thing: matchups. Of course, it is hard to know exactly what kind of matchups we have in Week 1 of the fantasy football season, as no one solidifies anything until during the actual first game of the season. Hell, even then it’s hard to tell what people are committed to. So without yet knowing which quarterback is starting where, which offenses are great, or which defenses are bad, we decided we give this old sleeper pick thing a shot in the dark anyway.

Here are your fantasy football sleepers at the defensive position for Week 1 of the NFL season.

Detroit Lions Defense at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
With all due respect to quarterback Josh Freeman, wide receivers Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams do not scream “dangerous” to me—yet. They have shown flashes, but they still have a long way to go, and are very young, might I add. Besides, I do not know that either of them will have time to get open before Nick Fairley, Ndamukong Suh and Kyle Vanden Bosch have time to get to Freeman. With that kind of power and explosiveness on the defensive front, it could be a long day for Freeman and that mediocre offensive line of the Buccaneers. And while the Lions don’t exactly have a “whose who” of players in their defensive backfield, their secondary managed to finish 16th against the pass last season. So if you’re asking me, I think the defensive-minded Lions get after the Bucs and put out quite the defensive performance against an offense that really isn’t all that potent.

Jacksonville Jaguars Defense vs. Tennessee Titans
Let me start by saying that I do not believe in the Titans offense this year. Matt Hasselbeck or not, this offense is not threatening anybody down the field, and I think the result of that is what we saw last year, when Chris Johnson was but a shell of his 2010 former self. Having said that, the Jacksonville Jaguars defense is nothing to write home about either, but as a fantasy football sleeper pick in Week 1, I like their chances. The Titans offense will literally rely on Matt “freaking” Hasselbeck throwing the ball downfield to stretch the offense for Johnson in the running game. When—I mean if, that does not happen, it is curtains to any semblance of a ground attack, and the front four of the Jaguars can go to town on the soft offensive tackles of the Titans. Again, let’s not get it twisted; the Jaguars defense has no big names and nobody that is likely to make the Pro Bowl 2011. However, they do have the schedule on their side, and just about anybody that plays Tennessee this season should be considered among the best of the fantasy football sleepers this season.

As I said before, this is going to be a very interesting year at the tight end position. We could see an incredible amount of turnover at this position during the 2011 Fantasy Football season. This is the first season in a very long time in which neither Dallas Clark or the Antonio Gates is the undisputed champion of the tight end position. Yeah, they are still at the top of most rankings, including ESPN Fantasy Football Rankings, but that does not mean that they will finish the season a top the rankings. In fact, I highly doubt that will be the case.

Thus, there is a lot of room for fantasy football sleepers at the tight end position. Who knows who will step up this season? Your tight end fantasy superstar might not emerge himself in Week 1, Week 2, or Week 7, but he will emerge. Here are two potential pass-catching tight ends that might be on deck for an early coming out party.

Kevin Boss, Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos
Want to see a really bad defense in NFL Week 1? Well, if they show the show this unwatchable affair on television, then the Raiders at Broncos game is the one you want to keep your eye on. As bad as these teams are, I don’t expect the scoring to stop, and that includes the Oakland Raiders impenetrable mess. That’s right, even with Jason Campbell at quarterback, the Raiders can score on what was a Broncos defense that finished 25th against the pass last season. Denver was also egregious against the run, finishing 31st in that category. However, if you are worried Kevin Boss (yes, this blurb is about him) not getting a chance to catch passes because the Raiders are killing the Broncos on the ground, think again. The running game is the best way to set up a tight end for the big play. If you have Boss as your starting tight end in Week 1, know that the more the Raiders run the ball, the more likely Boss is to score off the play-action fake. All it takes is one touchdown to justify playing this guy—after all, that’s why they call it a sleeper pick.

Brent Celek, Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams
Get Celek on your team and out of your fantasy football league’s free agent basement while you still can, because he will not be among our fantasy football sleepers for long. Celek obviously has the skill to be a very dangerous tight end in this league, and we saw it for a couple of years there with McNabb. Last year, the production wasn’t quite there because Vick was having such an easy time threading the needle to DeSean Jackson and Jason Avant down the field. However, during the off season, Vick committed to throwing the ball Celek’s way more than he did last season, and we saw that very inclination on the first drive of Philadelphia’s preseason, when Vick hit Celek for a first drive touchdown. Additionally, we all know that Vick loves throwing the ball to his tight end from his days in Atlanta with Alge Crumpler. Rest assure, Celek is yet another safety-outlet that Vick can depend on, and it seems Vick is intent on doing just that throughout the season.

Find a sleeper pick at the wide receiver position is like finding a needle in a haystack. There are a ton of guys out there that everybody thinks are great, so if you want to pick sleepers that no one else is talking about, you are going to have look hard. Well, to be honest, that is something that is extremely hard to do without a lot of film to this point in the season. Thus, we didn’t exactly go with wide receivers that no one has ever heard of, just wideouts that nobody has among their top 10 favorites entering the 2011 fantasy football season.

With that said, here are two fantasy football sleepers for Week 1.

Robert Meachem, New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers
A lot of fantasy football experts are sour on Robert Meachem—and with good reason. He’s among the top three wide receivers on a very solid passing attack that has quarterback Drew Brees at the helm, and yet Meachem still cannot produce like the prodigal son everybody thought he would be. Well, I think that changes this year. No, he will not surpass long-time Saints favorite, Marques Colston, but he will at least pass Lance Moore as Brees’ second favorite option on the team. Not to mention, with Reggie Bush gone, you can expect there to be more passes to go around, and Meachem has to be in line for those targets, as both Moore and Colston have very established roles from the slot and as a possession receiver. Did I mention this is a contract year for Meachem? That’s right! So you can expect his best effort, and you certainly can expect the Saints to find out whether this guy is a #2 receiver. It all starts in Week 1, as the Saints go up against a Packers defense that has two very established cornerbacks. However, what they do not have is a third cornerback, and I expect that to be where Brees goes to exploit the mismatch Meachem has over whomever the Packers third-cornerback is.

Brandon Lloyd, Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
For whatever reason, nobody at ESPN Fantasy Football seems to have any faith in your boy Brandon Lloyd. They have him ranked as the 18th best receiver entering the 2011 Fantasy Football season; this after a year where he was the most productive wide receiver in all of football. That’s a crazy notion to me. Sure, the “genius” behind the Broncos offense last year, Josh McDaniels, is gone, and notoriously no-offense guy, John Fox, has taken over, but does that really mean the end of Brandon Lloyd? Please, even with all of that, he still has Kyle Orton throwing him the ball, and he’s still playing in the AFC West. An AFC West that is now devoid of Nnamdi Asomugha, which means two more games in which Lloyd can produce crazy numbers, starting with Fantasy Football Week 1, when the Raiders try to defend Lloyd sans their franchise’s best defensive back from a year ago. This should be a big game, and possibly yet another big year, for Lloyd—unless of course Tim Tebow winds up finishing the season. Now that’s something to be scared about—but it’s just about the only thing that concerns me when it comes to Brandon Lloyd this season.

Fantasy Football Sleepers in Week 1 are a dime a dozen. Every fantasy football writer has their favorite guys that nobody else likes, and they want to sell you on them too. The problem with making fantasy football projections in Week 1 is that we really do not know anything about anybody. For all we know, our favorite unknown players could get cut during preseason or dropped in the depth chart on game day. It’s the way things happen.

Still, there is going to be a spot on your roster where you would like to give someone you stole either in your draft or from the free agent pool a chance at starting for your squad. So in the event that it’s a runner you need, we have compiled our list of Week 1 fantasy football sleepers at the running back position.

Cedric Benson, Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Last year, it would have been foolish to make Cedric Benson a sleeper pick given the year he was coming off of. Hell, even last year, he had 1,111 yards. The problem with those 1,100+ yards is that he got them at a mere 3.5 yards per clip. Hell, I could have averaged that many yards per carry with the shoes untied. So it suffices to say, Bensons’ explosive is probably lacking, and that consistent speed and power he had just two seasons ago has seemingly faded. Fortunately for Benson, he can play the Cleveland Brows in Week 1 of the NFL season. The Browns were the 27th worst team at topping the run last year, and they do not look any better as we enter the 2011-2012 NFL season. So even though all of the Yahoo and ESPN fantasy football rankings are projecting down on Cedric Benson for the season, he is at least worth a spin in Week 1, as he faces one of the league’s notoriously bad defenses.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears vs. Atlanta Falcons
Despite the fact that Matt Forte has been nearly as productive as Adrian Peterson over the past three seasons, and the numbers show he’s just as good, people still sleep on Matt Forte. It’s mainly because Forte isn’t the rusher that Peterson—no argument here. However, Forte is far superior in the passing game, where his yardage totals more than make up for Peterson’s advantage on the ground, some of which comes the better blocking Peterson has had over the years. But I digress. What you want to know is why Forte is worth playing in Fantasy Football Week 1? Well, he is up against an Atlanta Falcons team that was 10th against the rush, mainly because they were so God awful against the pass. At this point in time, the Falcons front seven looks like the “Where’s Waldo” of great players? You can’t find a guy in the box for them that is going to make plays except for an aging John Abraham and another smallish defensive end in Ray Edwards, who hasn’t been good in two seasons and is coming off knee surgery. Yeah, go figure why I like Forte’s chances at a big day against this small offense.

A great quarterback can really hold down the fort for your fantasy football team. Unfortunately, there aren’t 10 great quarterbacks, so not everybody in your fantasy football league can have Peyton Manning on their team. Thankfully, there are always fantasy football sleepers that we can trust to have a big game or two if given the right opponent. In Week 1, our fantasy football projections have the following sleepers rising out of bed for a big day of production at the office.

Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Ryan Fitzpatrick has certainly been known to rise up and produce big time passing numbers from time to time. His consistency is the only thing that separates him from the quarterbacks we talk about everyday, as he certainly has the arm strength and savvy to be a week-to-week producer in the NFL. In Fantasy Football Week 1, expect Fitzpatrick to show some of that talent off. He’s going up against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that ranked just 17th in the NFL against the pass last year, and that is mainly because they have nobody worth noting at the cornerback position. Yes, Fitzpatrick lost Lee Evans to the Baltimore Ravens, but they still have Steve Johnson, who scored 10 touchdowns last year and was far more productive than Evans. Additionally, the Chiefs linebackers are going to have a hard time matching up with CJ Spiller out of the backfield. Spiller caught 24 passes last year and figures to be Fitzpatrick’s go to playmaker now that Evans is gone. At the end of the day, this is a numbers play. Fitzpatrick is a gunslinger that can make plays, albeit inconsistently, and the Chiefs are a sometimes solid defense, that is susceptible to the big play. I know which side I’m picking in this argument—and for the betterment of your fantasy football league, I hope we are on the same side.

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets vs. Dallas Cowboys
Jets fans are excited! It is year three of the Mark “Dirty” Sanchez experiment, and the first two years have brought them more than they could have ever expected from a quarterback drafted just two seasons ago. While we know Sanchez can win, or at least prevent himself from losing the game at the quarterback position, can he produce? So far, not so good for him; his numbers aren’t even better than Chad Henne’s. Still, there is a lot to be said for a guy who has been dangerous at times and has weapons like LaDainian Tomlinson, Santonio Holmes and Dustin Keller. I didn’t even get to the fact that Sanchez is going up against the Cowboys, a team that gave up more points than any other team in the NFL. So yeah, I like Sanchez as one of fantasy football sleepers in Week 1, and if you have neither of the two guys I just dropped on you, there’s always Alex Smith…?

This game’s so nice, we played it twice! If Roddy White, Chad Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson are not on your fantasy football team, then our first round of Week 1 projections probably did not help you. That’s alright! We have you covered, as we dive into the world that is the Fantasy Football Projections for Week 1 of the season.

Andre Johnson, Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts
You know we love us some Andre Johnson here at TheSportsWatchers.com. When some guy at ESPN came out and suggested that Miles Austin was better than Johnson last season, we basically laughed in his face. And at the end of the day, I think we were proven right, as nobody would dare come out with such a statement this season. In Week 1 of the 2011 Fantasy Football season, Johnson can continue the his fight to protect his throne against a defense that doesn’t put up much of one. The Colts cornerbacks are about as good at single man coverage as a fat kid is at abstaining himself from cake. It’s not a question of if Andre Johnson will find himself one on one with one of their cornerbacks, it’s just a matter of when. And when he does, trust that quarterback Matt Schaub will indeed find him and make your Week 1 a successful start to the season.

Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
The fact that he doesn’t have an “L” in his first name aside, Floyd is one of the best kept secrets in fantasy football. Granted, he is not even the best wide receiver on his team, but in absence of him, you sure could have made that case. In just 11 games last season, Floyd managed to rack up 37 catches for 717 receiving yards. That’s 19.4 yards per catch, making Floyd one of the best deep threats in the NFL last season. Entering the 2011 NFL season, Floyd is a go to guy for San Diego, and they are going to go to him a lot against the Minnesota Vikings. While both Floyd and teammate Vincent Jackson will see a good amount of double coverage, Jackson is likely to see most of it. Knowing that, expect the Vikings, and the rest of the NFL, to learn a valuable lesson in Week 1: don’t leave Floyd one-on-one either!

Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
Reggie Wayne is getting old—really old. The man is in his 11th season in the NFL and he is 32 years old going on 33. Still, it’s hard to knock a guy who had 111 receptions for 1,355 receiving yards a season ago. However, there are two very alarming things about Wayne’s fantasy football production last year. One, he averaged just 12.2 yards per catch—the lowest of his NFL career. And two, he had just 6 touchdowns and was mysteriously out of the top red zone targetees for the first time in a while. Don’t’ expect his red zone targets to go up in 2011 now that Dallas Clark is back. And most wide receivers don’t get more explosive as their careers progress. He’s still at top 10 receiver though—just no longer in the top 5. For Fantasy Football Week 1 though, he might be one of the best bets going. Yes, against the Texans, he will likely draw Jonathan Joseph, but Joseph has been known to give up a big play or two, and there are very few cornerbacks who get away with cheating against Peyton Manning and Wayne. Expect Wayne to get a couple of long ones against the spotty coverage of Joseph and the spotty pass coverage of the entire Texans defense.

They say good things come in twos; thus, our 2011 fantasy football projections continue to roll out! While I have finally crossed over to the dark side and said that the running back position isn’t THAT important any more in fantasy football, they still have immense value to your squad. So make sure you’re playing the right ones.

Here are your 2011 fantasy football projections for Week 1 of the NFL season:

Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears
Michael Turner looks to return to the top of the fantasy football charts this season, as he and his Atlanta Falcons enter the 2011 fantasy football season with one of the league’s most potent rushing attacks. Turner is coming off a 1,300+ rushing yard performance last year in which he also managed to score 12 touchdowns on the ground. His numbers were still far below his 2008 campaign, in which he mustered up nearly 1,700 rushing yards and 17 total touchdowns, but hey, age is undefeated. Turner’s age should not prevent him from producing against a Chicago Bears front seven that is going to have some trouble with the run this year. The Bears are not very big in the middle, and Lance Briggs is probably their lone, playmaking linebacker against the run—and no, I did not forget about Brian Urlacher. Expect a big day from Turner, as a bruising back like himself is probably at his best early on in the season.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I do not know how anyone could not be a fan of Ray Rice. He is one of the most versatile, explosive, productive running backs in the NFL, and he may very well be on his way to becoming the best running back in the league. In fact, he’s so good, that in Week 1, when everybody is healthy, I am more than willing to put Rice among the best fantasy football projections at the running back position this week—even if he is going up against Troy Polomalu and the vaunted Pittsburgh Steelers defense. Don’t worry, Rice owners, Ray-Ray has your back. Rice is so versatile, that not even the Steelers defense scares me. Rice can get out in a route and go for a ton of yardage through the air. Actually, that’s probably exactly what Rice will do, given that he had just 84 yards on the ground against the Steelers in 3 games last year. However, in their playoff matchup last year, Rice had 7 catches and a rushing touchdown, so rest assure Rice will figure it out and find a way to produce against this Steelers defense. Besides, just like the Steelers, Rice has fresh legs too!

Shonn Greene, New York Jets at Dallas Cowboys
The New York Jets are a rushing team. Now, that’s mainly because they don’t like the decisions their quarterback makes, but that is a story for another day. Unlike last year, Greene should see the overwhelming majority of the carries for the Jets in 2011. While LaDainian Tomlinson performed admirably, anybody can tell that he was just getting the seat war form Greene. Against the Dallas Cowboys in Fantasy Football Week 1, I definitely like Shonn Green’s prospects for a big day. The Cowboys gave up the most points of any NFC team last year. While the other Ryan brother is coaching up the Cowboys defense now, Dallas still has some holes in the front seven that are going to make it hard to stop this Jets attack. And after a season of learning the ropes, Greene is more than capable of running through those holes for touchdowns.

Given how important the quarterback position is, we thought we would serve you up an extra round of fantasy football projections on everybody’s favorite roster spot. In the first round, we gave you our top fantasy picks for Week 1. Those sexy fantasy football names included Michael Vick, Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Schaub. These next couple of guys is not projected to perform as well as Vick, but they are the next best thing out there.

So without further adieu, here are the secondary 2011 Fantasy Football Projections for Week 1 at the quarterback position.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins
Tom Brady has a new toy. Actually, it’s kind of a replacement toy for the one that broke last year. Randy Moss’s arrival in New England was like a Christmas present for Brady back in 2007, but now that present’s glow has faded away. But with the arrival of Chad Johnson, it’s like Christmas all over again. No, nobody named Ocho-Cinco is going to replace the likes of Randy Moss at his best. Still, Chad Johnson has great experience running routes, getting open and making bad plays. And now that he finally has a quarterback that can get him the ball again, I’m sure he will deliver on his promises of greatness. I say all of that to say that Brady is going to have one heck of a game against the Miami Dolphins in Week 1 of the fantasy football season.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
Well folks, a year later, Ben Roethlisberger is a much sexier fantasy football pick. Last year, Big Ben fell because we knew he was out of the mix for the first four games. This year, there is no such worry, and he’s coming off one of his best game-for-game seasons. In Week 1, he does have the difficult task of going up against his division foes in the Baltimore Ravens, but he always manages to come up with big plays against this team. Call me crazy, but in the opening week of the season, I expect the pass defense of the Ravens to be a little suspect, especially given the Lardarius Webb’s presence at the cornerback position. Expect Mike Wallace to get loose from Webb once or twice in Week 1, and you can bet the house that when he does, Big Ben will find him.

Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders
I would love to consider Kyle Orton a fantasy football sleeper pick in Week 1, except for the fact that nobody who knows anything about fantasy football is sleeping on him. Orton has thrown for over 7,400 passing yards in the past two seasons, and he has done so at over a 60% completion rate. He also has 41 touchdowns in those two seasons against just 21 interceptions, a 2:1 ratio that just about anybody can respect from a fantasy football point of view. I don’t see why anybody would be against having Orton on their roster (so long as he is the starter). Add in the fact that he is playing an Oakland Raiders secondary, which he already burned last year and is Nnamdi Asomugha-less, and I think you have found yourself one heck of a fantasy football projection for Week 1 of this young NFL season.

In Fantasy Football Week 1 of any season, you really do not want your defense to lose you your first game of the season. So with all due respect to the risk takers out there, it pays to play it safe this week. I think there are no safer plays than the ones included in this week’s post on Fantasy Football Week 1 Projections for the defense.

Philadelphia Eagles Defense at St. Louis Rams
The Eagles defense is locked and loaded. The big name acquisition was Nnamdi Asomugha, who is just one third of the Eagles outstanding library of cornerbacks. With Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Asante Samuel by his side, the Eagles are poised to pick off a lot of quarterbacks and prevent a lot of passing yards, just by the play of those three guys alone. That leaves Sam Bradford and the rest of the Rams very little chance at succeeding against the Eagles. The Rams best deep threat is the oft-injured Donnie Avery, who probably does not stand much of a chance at getting open against the Eagles three Pro-Bowl caliber corners. That leaves it to the running game, one that should be adequately accounted for, and highly doubt that Stephen Jackson will find any holes to run through against Cullen Jenkins and the eight and nine-man fronts the Eagles send his way.

New York Giants Defense at Washington Redskins
Rex Grossman suggested that his Redskins might actually win the NFC East this year. Well, he’ll get a rude awakening against the New York Giants pass rush, which with Osi Umenyiora in the fold again, is poised to wreck havoc against the Redskins porous offensive line. The Giants defense should have no problem taking a part a Redskins offensive line that will send Kory Lichtensteiger out there in Left Guard. No offensive line means no time for Grossman, who probably will not do a whole lot of projecting while the Giants are busy pummeling him to the ground with sack after sack. When he’s not picking grass out of his facemask, Grossman will likely be busy running after cornerbacks that have just intercepted his pass. Yeah, this should be an easy one for the Giants, who despite having a mediocre secondary, measure up pretty well with the 75 career passer rating of one Mr. Rex Grossman.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense vs. Buffalo Bills
For a team playing in the AFC West, the Chiefs 17th overall ranking against the pass last season was actually mildly impressive. You have to remember that the #1 offense in the NFL was the San Diego Chargers, and the Denver Broncos were no slouches in the passing game either. Additionally, the Chiefs secondary should be much improved in 2011. Eric Berry has another year under his belt at safety, and Brandon Carr is a pass defending machine. Of course, the Chiefs best defensive weapon is their offense—particularly their rushing attack, which was the best in the NFL last year. So if you have Jamaal Charles on your team in addition to having the Chiefs, you get the double whammy. Because the better Charles does on the ground, the less time the Chiefs opposing offense gets to be on the field, equaling more points for you in Fantasy Football Week 1.

This year, the tight end position is going to be a really interesting one in the world of fantasy football. After all, we enter the 2011 fantasy football season with all kinds of questions about some of the best players at the position.

Is Dallas Clark going to recover easily from his season-ending injury a season ago? And does he even have a healthy enough quarterback in Peyton Manning to get him the football?

Entering Fantasy Football 2011, Antonio Gates is on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list—does that mean he is not this year’s, nevermind Week 1’s, best tight end?

And what about Jermichael Finley? Will he fit seamlessly back into the Green Bay Packers’ Super Bowl winning offense, or will he see his targets and catches precipitously decrease in volume?

These are questions that we will ask all season long. As for the moment, here are your fantasy football projections for Week 1 of the NFL season.

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks
For all the hype Vernon Davis brought with him to the National Football League, he sure hasn’t done much justify it. In five seasons, he hasn’t surpassed the 1,000-yard mark. He’s had more than 7 touchdowns just once in his career. And in his best season, he still only managed 78 catches at 12.4 yards per catch. Now, in his defense, the man has had zero stability at quarterback. Then again, guys like Tony Gonzalez, who came in with far less hype, seemed to produce in their prime no matter who was throwing them the football. But I digress. You are interested in what Vernon Davis is going to do in Fantasy Football Week 1. Well, the projections on him look good. He’s going up against a Seattle defense that finished 27th against the pass last year, averaging just under 250 yards against them each game. That’s not good by any standards. Even a blatant underachiever like Vernon Davis can have a big game against a defense that putrid.

Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense was among the top-third last year, and given that they have most of their core back, you would think they would be good against the pass again in 2011. Not so fast my friend! The Vikings still have some of the least coverage-prone safeties in the NFL, and I don’t expect either of them to hang with Antonio Gates—despite the fact that he is injured. Besides, with Malcom Floyd and Vincent Jackson on the outsides, how in the world are the Vikings safeties going to be able to protect the middle of the field? Then again, that is not a Vikings problem—that’s an NFL problem; one that should have Gates among the best fantasy football tight ends throughout the 2011 fantasy football season.

Dallas Clark, Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans
I may be taking a bit of a risk, one that I would even venture to say is better left for our fantasy football sleeper picks post. However, when you see Dallas Clark on your roster, most people are not thinking “sleeper pick,” so neither am I. Clark is coming of an injury, as is his and everybody’s favorite quarterback. Normally, I would not be able to bring myself to anointing two injured players as among the top quarterback-tight end combinations for the week. But this duo has tenure. They have years together—many years. Clark has been with Manning for 8 seasons to be exact, with just about all of those seasons being great ones for him. So those two spending another season together is nothing to be afraid of. More importantly, Clark is playing the Houston Texans! With all due respect to Houston, they could not cover Clark this game if they tried. Actually, if they tried at all, this game might not be the offensive onslaught that it is likely to be. Having said that, Clark owners should thank their lucky stars that Clark’s first game back from injury is against the Texans. If it weren’t, I would have an entirely different tight end among my Week 1 Fantasy Football projections.