Fantasy Football Week 1 Advice: Don’t Go With the Hype

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There are a lot lessons to be learned in fantasy football, but one that everyone should heed in Fantasy Football Week 1 is that hype will get you burned in Week 1.

Sorry to say it, but that 5,000-yard season outbreak you’re predicting from Joe Flacco probably isn’t going to happen. And if you really believe that Michael Crabtree is going to turn into Jerry Rice in his first full season, you’re are surely mistaken.

You see, just like with every other aspect of the NFL, fans always have way too high of expectations for their football interests at the beginning of the season. There are some people out there who really believe that the Buffalo Bills are going to have a winning season. I was actually talking to a guy who put money he doesn’t have on the Miami Dolphins going to the Super Bowl. Kevin Kolb seems alright, but if you think he’s the next Aaron Rodgers, hopefully, you have another thought coming. And don’t even get me started with the crazy people out there picking the Pittsburgh Steelers to go the Super Bowl. For God’s sake, they aren’t even the best second best team in their own division!

I point all of this out to our fantasy football readers, because I don’t want to let your expectations get you off on the wrong foot in Fantasy Football Week 1. Sure, it would be nice if Dez Bryant came through with 100-yard game against the Washington Redskins this Sunday night, but the chances of that happening are slim. Hell, we don’t even know if Bryant can get open in the NFL yet, and you’re willing to risk the 6 or 7 sure-fire points you’d get with a credible backup for a guy who may wet his pants before his first ever NFL football game? In the words of ESPN Monday Night Countdown: “Come’on Man!”

Be safe in Week 1. While other people are taking risk on the CJ Spillers, Matthew Stafford’s and Dez Bryant’s of the world, why not go with a guy who you have already seen in his current system and who produces consistently on the week-to-week basis. Steve Smith of the New York Giants comes to mind. Or how about Steven Jackson of the St. Louis Rams? Jonathan Stewart (albeit somewhat injured) had a 1,000-yard season a year ago. And Brent Celek of the Philadelphia Eagles was one of the more consistent tight ends in fantasy football last year.

Of course, going safe isn’t for everybody. Some people like to take risk. That’s understandable. But if you like winning your fantasy football league (and perhaps the money that comes along with that) more than you like taking virtual risks, then why would you be crazy enough to bet on players, systems and coaches you’ve never seen in their current situations.

Listen, I love the thrill of football as much as the next guy, and wishing and hoping for rookies, new acquisitions and new offenses to do well is why the NFL is the best professional sports league in America. However, bringing that same enthusiasm, subjectivity and utter blindness to your fantasy football team will cost you in Week 1. So if you want to get your 2010 fantasy football season off on the right foot, don’t put LaDainian Tomlinson in your starting lineup thinking that he’ll return to his glory years because he’s on a new team. It’s not going to happen! Just be safe in Week 1—it’s how fantasy football leagues are won!

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