Fantasy Football Draft Question: Who Not to Draft…? – Part I

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If you play fantasy football, then you know that everyone and their momma is trying to tell you who to draft, when to draft him, and how you could have mad that last draft pick better.

If you play fantasy football, you also know not to damn thing anyone tells you when it comes to setting up your fantasy football team—except for me that is (and your momma to, but only if she’s not in your league).

Here, I’m not going to tell you who to draft. No I’ve done that already, and I’ll have plenty of opportunities leading up to the first week of the season to give you my pre-season fantasy football draft analysis again, and of course you’ll be reading and hearing my fantasy football advice all season long here at TheSportsWatchers.com.

So what am I going to tell you if I don’t tell you whether to pick Tom Brady or LaDainian Tomlinson with the first pick, the ranking of the running backs, the projections for the quarterbacks and the consistency of the wide receivers?

I’m going to tell you the exact opposite. I’m going to tell you who not to draft.

This has been my ultimate key to fantasy football success. You have to know who to stay away from. Sometimes the decisions you make are hard, because often the players that you need to eliminate from your selection pool are the same players that are coming off of more than stellar seasons in the year prior. But if you took a guy like running back Larry Johnson in 2007, who dominated the NFL in 2006, you’ll see what I’m talking about.

If LaDainian Tomlinson was the king of fantasy football in 2006, than Larry Johnson was heir to the throne. He had a career year and ran behind what was probably the worst offensive line he had ever played for. And while LJ racked up his 1,789 yards in 2006, he also accumulated 416 carries, which essentially wore him out to the point where he was destined to fail in 2007. Knowing that, I removed Larry Johnson from all of my fantasy draft boards last year, and I effectively avoided his 8-game and 559-yard disappointment of a season.

You too can benefit from removing certain players from your draft board, because there are a few players out there that are projected to have unfavorable fantasy football seasons, and I’ve got a list of them. Before I give that to you, let me warn you, there will appear to be some contradictions between my rankings and involving these players on this “Don’t Draft List.” However, the rankings assume that the players will live up to their talents, while this list assumes that the worst of the players. So use this list as a guide to avoid drafting certain players when there are other equal or comparable fantasy football players to draft from.

With that said, here is the “Don’t Draft List!”

Carson Palmer, Quarterback, Cincinnati Bengals – I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Bengals offense so far. Their offense was the one good thing they had going for them last year and now it looks almost putrid. Here they are, looking to get receivers, trade grade-A running backs, and risking the seasons with wideout who has a bum shoulder. And of course, Carson is the one who will suffer from all of this. Not to mention, I don’t think the Bengals adequately addressed their offensive line issues during the off-season. Carson may be a highly-talented quarterback, but this year, there is a very likely chance that he won’t be his usual self.

Marshawn Lynch, Running Back, Buffalo Bills – I don’t care how many top 10 lists he is on this pre-season, because most importantly, he didn’t make mine! Besides, we all have seen this movie before. Rookie running back enters the league and explodes for big season, then said rookie running back follows it up with a dud for sophomore campaign and fantasy football players all over the country are devastated by his poor production. Now clearly, that doesn’t happen all the time, and I don’t expect it to happen to Adrian Peterson. But the fact of the matter is that the overwhelming majority of rookie running backs who rush for 1,000 yards don’t rush for a 1,000 the following year. I can’t find the percentage, but trust me on this, Lynch is likely to behold himself to that trend.

Calvin Johnson, Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions – Don’t buy the hype quite yet. I know, I know, you’ll be kicking yourself if you pass up on Calvin Johnson and he has a terrific season. But he is going to go entirely too high in the draft, and the likelihood of you having a shot at him the rounds where he should be drafted are unlikely. Heck, even fools on ESPN are ranking him in the top 10 despite him showing no evidence of that last year. Look, I love what Calvin Johnson can do, but he hasn’t done it yet. Not to mention, I’m almost 100% sure that at the end of the day, a healthy Roy Williams (his teammate) will have a better year than a healthy Calvin Johnson, and there’s no reason for you to go out and draft a #2 receiver as early as Johnson is projected to go. That said, I do expect Johnson to have a big Week 1, but I think Roy will have a big week too, so…

Antonio Gates, Tight End, San Diego Chargers – The fools who have Antonio Gates ranked as the #1 tight end in all of fantasy football have to be the worst prognosticators ever. There is absolutely no way that Gates will finish the year as the top tight end, if he will finish the season at all. The man has missed training camp, barely practices now, and I’m not even sure I saw him play in the preseason, and I know for a fact he didn’t play in the team’s 3rd pre-season game. But if you want to bet the farm on Gates go ahead. We all know he’ll be taken in your fantasy football draft before just about every other tight end, which means you’ll be picking him way too high if you target him. If you do draft Gates as high as he has been going in drafts, that alone could ruin your entire draft. But hey, that’s just my fantasy football prediction.

More Fantasy Football Articles:

“Don’t Draft List” Part I
My 3 Bold Fantasy Predictions
Should You Trade Your First Pick
Fantasy Football Predictions Week 1 – Quarterbacks
Fantasy Football Predictions Week 1 – Running Backs
Fantasy Football Predictions Week 1 – Wide Receivers
Fantasy Football Predictions Week 1 – Tight Ends
Fantasy Football Predictions Week 1 – Defense

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