Fantasy Football Predictions: Quarterbacks, Week 1, 2008

Here it is! The start of yet another NFL football season, and thus another chance for everyone to dominate their fantasy football leagues!

In Week 1 of fantasy football, I’m sure you all are just itching to get all of your top picks into your starting lineups and just watch them reel in the big yardage and the touchdowns all by themselves.

Well, that ain’t how this game works!

As nice as it would be to just play the best players on your fantasy football roster—especially in Week 1 of the fantasy football season—the best players know that not all of the stars are primed to put up big time fantasy points every week.

If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a million times, NFL fantasy football is all about the matchups. Not about your matchups against your opponent’s roster, but about the matchups between the players on your fantasy football roster and the football players lining up on the other side of the ball.

Fantasy Football Week 1 puts you in a precarious position though. You spent those early picks on players and you want to see them perform. You read all of the fantasy football projections, you know that Tom Brady is the top quarterback, and that Adrian Peterson is supposed to be the biggest thing in fantasy football since sliced bread, but will they live up to their expectations in Week 1 of the season?

Well, I have your answers right here. So for Fantasy Football Week 1 Quarterbacks, here are your predictions, projections and rankings:

1. Jon Kitna, Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons – I know, I know, this seems like a big risk, especially in the first week of the NFL season. However, if you leave Jon Kitna on your bench for Fantasy Football Week 1, you do it at your own peril. And for those of you in salary cap leagues, you can’t beat this kind of value and significant jump Kitna will give you after he dissects the defunct Atlanta Falcons in week 1. You want to talk about a likely stellar performance on tap; the Detroit Lions receivers should decimate the Falcons incomplete secondary. You’re talking about a secondary that was one of the worst in all of football last year, and then to add injury to insult, they traded away the one guy in their defensive backfield that was any good. As a result, the Lions will open up the 2008 season with yet another impressive win in Week 1, and John Kitna will have a field day amassing touchdown after touchdown against the Falcon defense. Assuming Roy Williams is healthy, the combination of Roy and 2nd year wideout Calvin Johnson will be just too much for the Atlanta Falcons and their rookie head coach, so this is an easy bet. I know the Lions are going to revert to more of a run-oriented offense later on in the season, but early on, they have to stick with what they know, which is throwing the ball—even if Mike Martz is now with the San Francisco 49ers.

2. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys at Cleveland Browns – I didn’t put Mr. Jessica Simpson Romo ahead of Peyton Manning in the pre-season rankings for no reason. Tony is going to have a big year throwing the ball, it is just the nature of their offense. With Romo’s ability, he is able to spread the ball around to his pro-bowl Tight End, his pro-bowl Wide Receiver, and his pro-bowl caliber running back. And he loves to take risk and still manages to throw very few interceptions. Going up against the Cleveland Browns in Week 1 ought to make this one of the best fantasy weeks for Tony Romo owners. The Browns’ secondary is average at best when healthy, and yet it appears they already have some injuries at the safety position. So expect Romo, Terrell Owens and the boys to take advantage of that, and expect a 300+ yard passing day from Romo.

3. Tom Brady, New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs - So this is where we find out if the best offense in the history of football is ready to make a run at another impressive year of throwing the ball. The Minnesota Vikings were tops in offense for about 3 consecutive years when they were running things, and the St. Louis Rams did it for two seasons. Brady says that this year’s squad has a full year under their belt and that they are primed to be even better. If that is indeed the case, then Brady is your number one pick in fantasy football this season—even over LaDainian Tomlinson. However, I don’t think he’ll be quite as good as last season; after all, you have to remember that they had the best passing season ever, so it’s not like it’s just something you go out and repeat. That said, the Patriots are damn good on offense, and I do not see any reason why they will not be the best offense in the NFL when it is all said and done. Brady doesn’t get the top nod in Fantasy Football Week 1 just because Romo and Kitna are facing two horrible secondaries, and the Chiefs love to run the ball and play decent defense. However, I’m about 50/50 as to whether or not I’ll be eating crow for ranking Brady at the number 3 spot this week. Nevertheless, I’m predicting a 250-passing yard day for Brady and a couple of touchdowns to that Moss fellow.

4. Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles vs. the St. Louis Rams – No favoritism here (yes, I am an unabashed Philadelphia Eagles fan). The St. Louis Rams ranked 21st in passing defense last season, and even that ranking is misleading, because they were so far behind in games that teams just ran the clock out on them. The Rams gave up 7.4 yards per pass, 25 passing touchdowns, and an 85.0 quarterback rating on the year—so believe me, Donovan McNabb is going to have a field day with these guys. Rams defense aside, McNabb is coming back with the same offensive players he had last season, which means they have another year under their belt, and we should see better production from Kevin Curtis and more growth from Reggie Brown. But most importantly, Brian Westbrook’s contract issues are out of the way, and we know that he will quickly turn a 2-yard screen pass into a 50-yard touchdown, and that means tons of points for McNabb and your fantasy football team in Week 1.

Honorable Mention:

Brett Favre, New York Jets at Miami Dolphins – Okay, so I’m throwing you New York Jets fans a bone. Favre is going up against a porous defense in the Miami Dolphins, so he should have a better than average day throwing the ball. However, I caution you, Favre has that great potential to make mistakes, and we all know that this is his first year in the system. I’m just giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will make his first impression on Jets fans a good one—what happens to his fantasy football rankings and projections after that is anybody’s guess.

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The 2008 Wide Receiver Fantasy Football Projections

Entering your fantasy football season, one area of concern this year is the wide receiver position. With Randy Moss putting up record numbers last season (98 receptions, 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns), a lot of people are wondering if they are better off drafting him instead of a running back in the first round of their fantasy football drafts.

The answer is no, but that is a topic I will address elsewhere.

Having addressed that, we can now get into the real subject at hand, which are my 2008 wide receiver projections for this upcoming NFL season.

And where else would we start a conversation about fantasy football and wide receiver projections?

1. Randy Moss, New England Patriots – Randy Moss will probably catch 23 touchdowns and almost 1,500 yards again, but he is unquestionably the number one fantasy football choice at wide receiver. It is just unfathomable to think that this guy can repeat what was probably the 2nd or 3rd best receiving season in the history of the NFL in back-to-back seasons. So naturally, be prepared for a slight drop off, although not as much as some fantasy football analysts are predicting, because contrary to what they may be telling you, teams are no more prepared or equipped to defend Randy Moss this season than they were last season. So how many touchdown receptions can he get out of his quarterbacks; 15 maybe? I know that is a long ways away from the 23 he had last season, but I refuse to believe that him and Tom Brady will have another magical season like that. We all remember the unbelievable year that Peyton Manning had with Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley in 2004, and there was no such repeat performance in 2005. Nonetheless, Randy Moss will remain the 2008 fantasy football point projections leader at the wide receiver position. I say you get him late in the second round if he is still available and you already drafted a running back in the first round.

2. Terrell Owens, Dallas Cowboys – The next best player to choose from is none other than T.O. himself. The man has found his way in Dallas, averaging 14 touchdowns in his first two seasons with America’s team. And while he may be expendable to the Cowboys offense, they sure do a lot of great things with him, which is why he is indispensable to your fantasy football team. But be aware, despite his great numbers, which would lead the league in almost any other season, he is a huge drop off from Randy Moss, so don’t go drafting him in the 2nd or 3rd rounds like you would Moss. Instead, look to get him in the 4th, but even that is a stretch, and you’d be better off letting some else get him if he goes that high. That said, if you do reach for him, I should let you know what his projections are for the 2008 season. Given his rather consistent production since his arrival in Dallas, one has to expect Terrell Owens to put up another superb statistical year. How does 75 receptions, 1,200 yards and 14 touchdowns sound? It’s no Randy Moss season, but those are wide receiver projections you can take to the bank.

3. Braylon Edwards, Cleveland Browns – I’m going out on a limb by placing Braylon Edwards right behind two future Hall of Fame receivers, but he has a lot of promise this season, and he is your next best choice after T.O. and Moss. Of course, his high ranking is contingent upon the performance of his quarterback, Derek Anderson, but my 2008 fantasy football rankings for quarterbacks projects a pretty stellar season for Mr. Anderson. Thus, I have no problem ranking Braylon this high. His 80-reception and 1,289 yard season in 2007 was no fluke. And the only reason he didn’t produce more was because teams started to take him out of the game by rolling coverage his way. It will be a lot harder for teams to do that now since Edwards has a new receiving mate in Donte Stallworth. Factoring Stallworth in with Kellen Winslow, and the coverage that rolled Edwards’ way last season will have to all but disappear, making him a very sexy pick in this year’s fantasy football drafts. Put Braylon Edwards down for 84 receptions, 1,350 yards and 15 touchdowns.

4. Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams – Word on the street is that Torry Holt is 100% healthy and that his absence from preseason games is just a precautionary stance. So if I believe the reports that he is healthy, and I do, one would have to expect that Torry “Big Game” Holt will be atop this year’s list of productive wide receivers. Just think about it, playing at 75-80% for most of last season, Holt still put up 93 receptions, 1,189 yards and 7 touchdowns. How many wide receivers out their can label that a down year? Not many, and yet that is exactly what that was for him in 2007 (He also had a similar year in 2006, but that was more the fault of unproductive offensive unit late in the season). So don’t worry about Holt having turned 32-years old or having to deal with any knee issues, because he will put up huge numbers this season. His 2008 receiving projections are 101 receptions, 1,250 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. Moreover, even if his knee does bother him, we already know that his worst years usually rank him in the top 10 anyway. You can’t ask for much more than that from your fantasy wide receivers.

5. Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals – If you don’t think that Chad Johnson has his heart in the game, you have to be crazy, because there are few players who play the game with more emotion than “Ocho-cinco.” But as you all know, money is on Chad’s mind this season, and he knows that if he has another brilliant season that the Bengals will be all but forced to pay him his money in the 2009 off-season. So expect a big season from the loud-spoken Bengals’ wide receiver; something to the tune of 100 receptions, 1,500 yards and 10 touchdown celebrations. Message to Carson Palmer though; get “Ocho-cinco” the damn ball!

The rest of the top 10 2008 wide receiver projections/predictions are:

6. Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
7. Andre Johnson, Houston Texans
8. Marques Colston, New Orleans Saints
9. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals
10. Roy Williams, Detroit Lions

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Fantasy Football Pre-Season Running Back Rankings: #10 – Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns

Can you believe Jamal Lewis has been in the NFL for 9 seasons now? It seems just like yesterday that he was rushing into the record books trying to capture the rushing title, or dominating the field as a rookie helping lead the Ravens to a Superbowl victory.

Needless to say, his career has had a lot of ups and downs, and going into the 2007 season, many of us definitely thought that his arrival in Cleveland would probably be the final nail in the coffin of his spiraling career.

But for those fantasy football owners who drafted him (including myself—yay me!) were in for a big surprise when Lewis started looking like the grind it out running back of his youth. He got off to a very a slow start in Week 1, as did the rest of the Cleveland Browns, but all of a sudden, in Week 2, we saw an explosiveness from Lewis that we thought we would never see again after his tip-toeing season with the Ravens in 2006.

Lewis exploded for 216 yards against the Bengals, with multiple runs over 40-yards. While most fantasy football owners had him on the bench for that game, they learned never to bench him again when the Browns have a favorable match up on the ground. As a result, he was a beast for much of the season, rushing for 1,304 yards and 11 total touchdowns. He averaged 4.4 yards per carry and even caught 30 balls, something very rare for a person of Lewis’s running style.

So what can we expect from Lewis this season?

I have to be honest and say that you will probably get much of the same. Now that doesn’t mean lock him up as the 10th best running back going into the draft, because I think many fantasy owners will still low-ball him in their fantasy football projections fo the 2008 NFL season. So you may want to wait a while for him, but once you see the 10th running back selected, be mindful of your friends rosters and gauge as to just when you think someone might be targeting him.

So while your league members are busy underrating Jamal Lewis’s ability, you know that you are getting a steal if you can snag him anywhere after the 10 spot. Because with the Browns added emphasis on the offensive line, in addition to brining Donte Stallworth into the fold at wide receiver, this team is set to have an even more explosive offensive season than last year, and Lewis may be the ultimate beneficiary.

#9. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

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Fantasy Football Pre-Season Running Back Rankings: #9 – Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

Frank Gore was a fantasy football monster in 2006. So what happened in 2007?

Quite honestly, he fell off.

And even though much of his descent from grace can be attributed to the poor play of the entire 49ers organization, it just seemed like Gore had lost the explosiveness that made him a dangerous running back in 2006. His average dropped from 5.4 yards per carry in ’06 to 4.2 last year. He had runs over 70 yards in each of his first two seasons, but had nothing longer than 43 last year. He averaged a touchdown every three games last season, as opposed to a score for every two games in 2006. And had 16 fewer first downs, fewer receptions and carries in 2007 as well.

Now, the carries and receptions decline can be attributed to stunted 49ers offense that couldn’t get a first down if they were creators of spygate themselves—they were just that bad!

So why on Earth would I rank Gore a top 10 back after a season where he showed nothing but obvious decline?

Two words: Mike Martz.

He is the NFL’s offensive genius. Say what you will about his coaching style and his way with words, but he sure as hell knows how to move the ball down the field. He did in St. Louis for the Rams. He did it in lowly Detroit for the Lions. And he will do the same thing in San Francisco, no matter what kind of a talent he as at his disposal.

Which is why Frank Gore is about as safe a pick as there is this year. The only reason he isn’t higher is because Martz does have his tendency to veer away from the run before the game even gets started. But even if he does, Gore’s carries can’t get lower than the 260 he had in 2006. Moreover, the types of runs that Martz will bring to this offense will certainly yield a higher average than what Gore was getting last year. If that average goes back up to around the 5.0 level, we’re talking about a 1,300 yard season for Frank Gore.

As for the touchdowns, Martz is very reliant upon the quarterback in the red zone, however, he has been known to lean in favor of the running back if he has the talent at the position (i.e. Marshall Faulk). So if Gore can prove himself worthy of the rock in the end zone (and Vernon Jackson doesn’t out shine him too much), then Gore will get his fair share of Touchdowns in the 2008 Fantasy Football season.

#8. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers
#10.Jamal Lewis, Clevelanc Browns

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Fantasy Football Pre-Season Running Back Rankings: #8 – Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers

Willie Parker was having his best season ever as a pro. He was the leading rusher in Week 16 and was a game away from capturing the rushing title for the first time in his career. But things didn’t work out like that. Parker broke his leg that week, and would sit out the rest of the Steelers’ season.

However, all signs seem to point to the fact that Parker’s leg should be fully healed by now, and he should be back to his running ways this season. Even with the acquisition of rookie running back Rashard Mendenhall, Parker will get plenty of carries to worthy of being a first round fantasy football draft pick.

While Parker will get the carries, he won’t necessarily get the right carries. Last season, Parker scored on 2 touchdowns despite being the rushing leader for much of the season. The disparity in touchdowns to yards isn’t just an example of statistical improbability, it is a measure of selective rushing.

Many of us thought that after Jerome Bettis left, Parker would become the sole back of the Steelers and get back some of those goal-line touchdowns. Didn’t happen. Najeh Davenport stole all of Parker’s goal-line carries, and Parker had another TD producing season for fantasy football owners.

That won’t change this year. Mendenhall figures to cut into Parker’s short-yardage rushing attempts, leaving Parker on the sidelines to watch his team score touchdowns…again. While a lack of touchdown production certainly isn’t good for a running back in fantasy football, his yardage totals should justify the #8 ranking, assuming he can at least get a touchdown every now and then.

#7. Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs
#9. Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers

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Fantasy Football Pre-Season Running Back Rankings: #7 – Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs

Okay, so a lot of people think Larry Johnson is done. In 2006, Head Coach Herm Edwards ran Larry Johnson into the ground, and Larry Johnson helped a lot of people win their fantasy football leagues.

But in 2007, he felt the effects of running the ball 416 times in 2006, and he was hardly the player he was supposed to be in 2007, he rushed the ball combined 26 times in his first two games, and amassed less than 100 rushing yards. He went down in Week 9 with an injury that took him out for the rest of the season. His 2007 totals were 559 rushing yards, 4 total touchdowns, and a meager average of 3.5 yards per carry.

So why am I projecting Johnson as being worthy of the 7th overall pick in this year’s fantasy football drafts?

Because he had 8 weeks off in 2007!

Sure, he was recovering from injury from that time, but anything short of running into 250-pound linebackers should have served as quite the rest from his day job. So I think Larry Johnson will be extremely fresh going into this season. And with the contract issues out of the way, he’ll be in camp on time to get back in the groove and start the season off strong.

And in case you didn’t notice, even as a tired back last year, Johnson still put up 3 100+ rushing-yard games in only 8 weeks. And the back up who replaced him, played quite well too, proving that the offensive line in Kansas City is capable of giving Johnson the holes that can make him a productive fantasy football running back this season.

#6. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins
#8. Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers

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Fantasy Football Pre-Season Running Back Rankings: #6 – Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins

For whatever reason, Clinton Portis was highly undervalued last season. And even though he made my list of Most Expendable NFL Superstars, he wouldn’t be expendable on most teams, and he certainly isn’t expendable as a fantasy football player.

Clinton dropped severely in my fantasy football draft last year, allowing me to swipe him up in the 4th round—how this happened, I don’t know. Needless to say, I won the league.

Maybe it’s Portis’s history of injury. Last year, Portis was coming off of an 8-game season where he only rushed for 523 yards and 7 touchdowns. What many people didn’t know, is that after that injury, Portis put on some weight and continued to beef up that frame that he’s been working on ever since moving over from the Denver Broncos. That’s why I drafted him, and that’s why he ended up putting up 1,600+ all purpose yards (yes, 100 yards per game!) and 11 touchdowns. And yet, I don’t think Portis makes a lot of people’s list this high in the draft.

Now, I won’t neglect the fact that the man did fumble the ball 6 times, and that his longest run of the season was a mere 32-yards. And yes, he’s still probably a little susceptible to injury. So clearly, the added weight has effected his ball security, top-end speed, and his explosiveness, which would all explain his 3.9 yards per carry, one of his worst season averages ever. But you don’t have to concern yourselves with that. Clinton averaged well over 20 carries per game, getting 20+ in 8 games, resulting in 78.8 yards per game—a measure of consistency that you won’t find with very many backs.

#5. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings
#7. Larry Johnson, Kansas City Chiefs

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Fantasy Football Pre-Season Running Back Rankings: #5 – Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Okay, finally, I have arrived at everyone’s favorite pick, Adrian Peterson. Why is he not the #1 or #2 pick that many of you think that he is?

First of all, don’t get me wrong, Adrian Peterson is a terrific talent, and his fantasy football outlook for 2008 is just unbelievable. That said, the man has his flaws, and it being only his 2nd season of playing running back in the NFL, I can’t say that he has proven himself as a consistent performer over the years.

Yes, he had a wonderful rookie campaign. He amassed 1,341 yards in just 14 games. A great production level, but was it really all that promising as we try to project him going forward into the 2008 NFL season?

The answer is no. First of all, even if were to allow for the fact that he could continue to produce the same type of yardage per carry (5.6 last year), how are we to assume that his carries won’t go in significant decline with the return of a healthy Chester Taylor?

It’s a very real possibility, because even though Peterson has proven himself the better running back, Taylor surely has proven himself very productive as well, producing 5.4 yards per carry himself. So while AD is great, Taylor can be a very effective back-up who steals a lot of snaps, because we know that coach Brad Childress is very weary of over using Adrian Peterson and losing him to injury. That’s why I won’t be surprised if Peterson’s run attempt total veer away from the 20’s, and back into the mid-teens.

(Note: It is because of Chester Taylor’s presence that “AD” made it on this list of mine.)

#4. Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams
#6. Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins

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Fantasy Football Pre-Season Running Back Rankings: #4 – Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams

Last year, Steven Jackson devastated all fantasy football owners by going down with an injury in Week 3, which had been his best game of the season to-date. People had high hopes for the running back who had amassed 2,334 total yards from scrimmage in 2006 to go along with 15 touchdowns.

Even though Steven Jackson bounced back after missing 4 games to finish up with a 1,002 yard season and 6 touchdowns on the years, the fantasy football projection is as high for him as it was last year. Last year, many people would have said that Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson were the top 3 running backs. However, this year, Jackson has to fall back to the #4 spot until he does 2 things. One, he has to stop holding out. And who knows? He may be done with that by the time you read this article. But secondly, Jackson has to stay healthy. That 2006 seasons saw him touch the ball 436 times, and those kinds of touches can have a residual effect on a running backs body, as we have seen from Larry Johnson.

Despite what he has to prove, my fantasy football prediction for Steven Jackson still places him at 4, and ahead of Adrian Peterson. The fact of the matter is, Jackson still has both the talent and the offensive system to duplicate what he did in 2006. The 4 games missed due to injury last season forced him to take on a much lighter role once he came back to the team, and I think that will benefit his health this year. And as a result, the St. Louis Rams will try to run him into the ground again. That may not be good for the future of Steven Jackson and, perhaps, the future of the St. Louis Rams. However, it is a very good thing for your fantasy football team…if he’s on your roster.

#3. Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts
#5. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

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